Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at DET?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+31CLE

CLE

52-30

12594

DET

60-22

NBASun, May 17FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasDET -4.5

CLE · top performer

Evan Mobley

C · #4

24.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Daniss Jenkins

G · #24

12.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 9pp · 1st Quarter · 7:05

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. AllenC · #31	25	23	8-14	—	7-13	+9	7	1
E. MobleyC · #4	36	21	7-10	1-4	6-11	+31	12	6
J. HardenG · #1	36	9	2-10	0-6	5-8	+31	5	6
D. MitchellG · #45	31	26	10-22	2-6	4-6	+17	6	8
M. StrusG · #2	28	9	3-7	1-5	2-2	+11	3	2
Bench
D. WadeF · #32	21	5	2-2	1-1	—	+17	6	1
N. TomlinF · #35	4	2	1-1	—	—	+1	1	0
T. BryantC · #3	4	0	0-4	0-2	—	+1	4	1
D. SchroderG · #8	18	2	1-1	—	—	+12	3	3
S. MerrillG · #5	25	23	7-10	5-8	4-4	+22	1	2
J. TysonG · #20	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	0	0
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	4	2	1-2	—	—	+1	2	1
K. EllisG · #14	4	3	1-1	1-1	—	+1	0	0
Team		125	43-85	11-34	28-44		50	31
DNP: T. Proctor

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	23	5	0-6	0-2	5-6	-23	5	2
J. DurenC · #0	26	7	3-7	—	1-2	-18	9	3
C. CunninghamG · #2	37	13	5-16	0-7	3-3	-32	4	5
A. ThompsonG · #9	29	5	2-7	1-2	0-2	-14	7	0
D. JenkinsG · #24	34	17	4-12	2-7	7-8	-15	3	5
Bench
D. RobinsonF · #55	22	13	4-7	3-5	2-3	-20	1	1
P. ReedF · #7	8	4	2-5	—	—	-7	4	1
T. SmithF · #35	5	4	2-2	—	—	+4	2	0
I. StewartF · #28	6	3	1-1	—	1-1	-8	0	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	6	3	1-3	1-2	—	+4	2	0
C. LeVertG · #8	17	11	3-5	2-4	3-4	-14	2	2
M. SasserG · #25	23	9	3-12	3-9	—	-16	2	1
C. LanierG · #20	5	0	0-2	0-1	—	+4	0	1
Team		94	30-85	12-39	22-29		41	21
DNP: J. Green, K. Huerter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

DET

Home

43-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-85

FG %

11-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-39

28-44

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-29

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

CLE wins series 4-3

May 5

CLE101@

DET111

May 7

CLE97@

DET107

May 9

DET109@

CLE116

May 12

DET103@

CLE112

May 14

CLE117@

DET113

May 15

DET115@

CLE94

May 18

CLE125@

DET94today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

204.5

Defensive · -21.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE+16038%

DET-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -4.5↗SpreadBet DET -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

+1.0 since open

Total

204.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat DET 125-94. E. Mobley led with 21 PTS, 12 REB, 6 AST. CLE outscored the other side 31-22 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 33 REB · 23 AST

GS 78

Bench(8)

37 PTS · 17 REB · 8 AST

GS 34

DETstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

47 PTS · 28 REB · 15 AST

GS 28

Bench(8)

47 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST

GS 31

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET1st Quarter · 7:05 · 8-7

+9pp→ 66% WP

Jalen Duren · lost ball turnover (Jarrett Allen steals)

CLE2nd Quarter · 9:21 · 36-26

+7pp→ 64% WP

Paul Reed · misses 8-foot two point shot

CLE4th Quarter · 12:00 · 100-73

+7pp→ 100% WP

Sam Merrill · makes technical free throw

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	31	33	35	26	125
DET	22	25	26	21	94

Period scoring

CLE won 4 · DET won 0

Allen 6

Harden 10

Allen 9

Cunningham 8

Mitchell 15

Robinson 6

Strus 7

Merrill 11

CLE

DET

Shooting comparison

CLE

DET

51%

43-85

35%

30-85

32%

11-34

3PT

31%

12-39

64%

28-44

76%

22-29

Play-by-play · 533 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 125·DET 94
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 125·DET 94
Q4·12.0
Thomas Bryant defensive rebound
CLE 125·DET 94
Q4·14.3
Marcus Sasser misses 32-foot three point jumper
CLE 125·DET 94
Q4·22.9
Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes 4-foot running dunk (Craig Porter Jr. assists)
·
CLE 125·DET 94
Q4·26.0
Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound
CLE 123·DET 94
Q4·27.9
Daniss Jenkins misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 123·DET 94
Q4·36.9
Keon Ellis makes 26-foot three point jumper
CLE 123·DET 94
Q4·45.9
Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound
CLE 120·DET 94
Q4·47.4
Ronald Holland II misses 27-foot three point jumper
CLE 120·DET 94
Q4·1:01
Craig Porter Jr. makes layup (Thomas Bryant assists)
·
CLE 120·DET 94
Q4·1:02
Thomas Bryant offensive rebound
CLE 118·DET 94
Q4·1:03
Thomas Bryant misses layup
CLE 118·DET 94
Q4·1:04
Thomas Bryant offensive rebound
CLE 118·DET 94
Q4·1:05
Thomas Bryant misses layup
CLE 118·DET 94
Q4·1:13
Tolu Smith bad pass turnover (Nae'Qwan Tomlin steals)
·
CLE 118·DET 94
Q4·1:22
Thomas Bryant out of bounds bad pass turnover
CLE 118·DET 94
Q4·1:38
Tolu Smith makes driving layup (Daniss Jenkins assists)
·
CLE 118·DET 94
Q4·1:41
Daniss Jenkins offensive rebound
CLE 118·DET 92
Q4·1:44
Chaz Lanier misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
CLE 118·DET 92
Q4·1:49
Pistons offensive team rebound
CLE 118·DET 92
Q4·1:50
Chaz Lanier misses 23-foot three point jumper
CLE 118·DET 92
Q4·1:57
Daniss Jenkins defensive rebound
CLE 118·DET 92
Q4·1:59
Thomas Bryant misses 24-foot three point jumper
CLE 118·DET 92
Q4·2:11
Nae'Qwan Tomlin defensive rebound
CLE 118·DET 92
Q4·2:12
Daniss Jenkins misses 26-foot three point jumper
CLE 118·DET 92
Q4·2:24
Tolu Smith defensive rebound
CLE 118·DET 92
Q4·2:26
Craig Porter Jr. misses driving floating jump shot
CLE 118·DET 92
Q4·2:39
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 118·DET 92
Q4·2:39
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 118·DET 91

Betting line

DET -4.5·O/U 204.5·CLE +160/DET -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers went into Detroit Pistons and beat them, 125–94. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CLE +4.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 204.5 OVER by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.0%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
42.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
46.5%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
40.5%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.32

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at DET?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+21.1pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

CLE

★ best

+160DraftKings

edge +21.1pp · implied 36.9%

DET

no live price

Book	CLE	DET	Best edge
DraftKings	+160★	-192	+21.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DET vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Donovan MitchellCLE
3.9± 2.0high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Elijah HarklessDET
1.5± 1.4high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

DET

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.0%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

115.9

27.1

Assists / G

25.0

27.0

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR