May 15, 26sim 96
24139
16(H)109
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+31CLE
CLE
52-30
12594
DET
60-22
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 50 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NBA
leveland Cavaliers went into Detroit Pistons and beat them, 125–94. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
CLE +4.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 204.5 OVER by 14.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CLE · top performer
Evan Mobley
C · #4
24.4Game score
21
Pts
12
Reb
6
Ast
DET · top performer
Daniss Jenkins
G · #24
12.4Game score
17
Pts
3
Reb
5
Ast
NBA · Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CLE52-30
12594
DET60-22
CLE52-30DET60-22
CLE
52-30
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 25 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +9 | |
| 36 | 21 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +31 | |
CONT9.497 DEFL2.670 TOUCHES63.659 | ||||||||
| 36 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +31 | |
DRIVES12.676 TOUCHES70.370 DEFL2.670 | ||||||||
| 31 | 26 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +17 | |
DRIVES12.371 TOUCHES63.659 DEFL1.512 | ||||||||
| 28 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +11 | |
| 21 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +17 | |
| 18 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +12 | |
| 25 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +22 | |
| Team | 125 | 50 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 11 | ||
| DNP: T. Proctor | ||||||||
DET
60-22
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 23 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -23 | |
| 26 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -18 | |
CONT994 TOUCHES4524 DEFL1.512 | ||||||||
| 37 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -32 | |
DRIVES1999+ TOUCHES9799+ CONT6.779 | ||||||||
| 29 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -14 | |
| 34 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -15 | |
| 22 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -20 | |
DEFL2.442 CONT2.16 DRIVES33 | ||||||||
| 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 17 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 23 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -16 | |
| Team | 94 | 41 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 14 | ||
| DNP: J. Green, K. Huerter | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
35
31
Ast
21
Playoff series
CLE wins series 4-3
May 5CLE101@DET111
CLE101@DET111May 7CLE97@DET107
CLE97@DET107May 9DET109@CLE116
DET109@CLE116May 12DET103@CLE112
DET103@CLE112May 14CLE117@DET113
CLE117@DET113May 15DET115@CLE94
DET115@CLE94May 18CLE125@DET94today
CLE125@DET94todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -4.5
Half-pt below key 5
Total
204.5
Defensive · -21.5 vs avg
Moneyline
CLE+16038%DET-19266%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
4.5
+1.0 since open
Total
204.5
+1.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowCLE ↔ DET
Biggest swing: 9pp · 1st Quarter · 7:05
CLEE. Mobley
CGame leader · 36 min
21 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST
DETD. Jenkins
GGame leader · 34 min
17 PTS · 3 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
CLE beat DET 125-94. E. Mobley led with 21 PTS, 12 REB, 6 AST. CLE outscored the other side 31-22 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DET vs CLE
Starters vs bench
production by unitCLEstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
88 PTS · 33 REB · 23 AST
GS 78
Bench(8)
37 PTS · 17 REB · 8 AST
GS 34
DETstarters 50% of ptsStarters(5)
47 PTS · 28 REB · 15 AST
GS 28
Bench(8)
47 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST
GS 31
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDET1st Quarter · 7:05 · 8-7
+9pp→ 66% WP
Jalen Duren · lost ball turnover (Jarrett Allen steals)
CLE2nd Quarter · 9:21 · 36-26
+7pp→ 64% WP
Paul Reed · misses 8-foot two point shot
CLE4th Quarter · 12:00 · 100-73
+7pp→ 100% WP
Sam Merrill · makes technical free throw
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 31 | 33 | 35 | 26 | 125 |
| DET | 22 | 25 | 26 | 21 | 94 |
Period scoring
CLE won 4 · DET won 0
31
22
Q1
Allen 6
Harden 10
33
25
Q2
Allen 9
Cunningham 8
35
26
Q3
Mitchell 15
Robinson 6
26
21
Q4
Strus 7
Merrill 11
CLE
DET
Shooting comparison
CLE
DET
51%
43-85
FG
35%
30-85
32%
11-34
3PT
31%
12-39
64%
28-44
FT
76%
22-29
Play-by-play · 533 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 125·DET 94
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 125·DET 94
- Q4·12.0
Thomas Bryant defensive rebound
CLE 125·DET 94
- Q4·14.3
Marcus Sasser misses 32-foot three point jumper
CLE 125·DET 94
- Q4·22.9
Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes 4-foot running dunk (Craig Porter Jr. assists)
·
CLE 125·DET 94
- Q4·26.0
Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound
CLE 123·DET 94
- Q4·27.9
Daniss Jenkins misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 123·DET 94
- Q4·36.9
Keon Ellis makes 26-foot three point jumper
CLE 123·DET 94
- Q4·45.9
Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound
CLE 120·DET 94
- Q4·47.4
Ronald Holland II misses 27-foot three point jumper
CLE 120·DET 94
- Q4·1:01
Craig Porter Jr. makes layup (Thomas Bryant assists)
·
CLE 120·DET 94
- Q4·1:02
Thomas Bryant offensive rebound
CLE 118·DET 94
- Q4·1:03
Thomas Bryant misses layup
CLE 118·DET 94
- Q4·1:04
Thomas Bryant offensive rebound
CLE 118·DET 94
- Q4·1:05
Thomas Bryant misses layup
CLE 118·DET 94
- Q4·1:13
Tolu Smith bad pass turnover (Nae'Qwan Tomlin steals)
·
CLE 118·DET 94
- Q4·1:22
Thomas Bryant out of bounds bad pass turnover
CLE 118·DET 94
- Q4·1:38
Tolu Smith makes driving layup (Daniss Jenkins assists)
·
CLE 118·DET 94
- Q4·1:41
Daniss Jenkins offensive rebound
CLE 118·DET 92
- Q4·1:44
Chaz Lanier misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
CLE 118·DET 92
- Q4·1:49
Pistons offensive team rebound
CLE 118·DET 92
- Q4·1:50
Chaz Lanier misses 23-foot three point jumper
CLE 118·DET 92
- Q4·1:57
Daniss Jenkins defensive rebound
CLE 118·DET 92
- Q4·1:59
Thomas Bryant misses 24-foot three point jumper
CLE 118·DET 92
- Q4·2:11
Nae'Qwan Tomlin defensive rebound
CLE 118·DET 92
- Q4·2:12
Daniss Jenkins misses 26-foot three point jumper
CLE 118·DET 92
- Q4·2:24
Tolu Smith defensive rebound
CLE 118·DET 92
- Q4·2:26
Craig Porter Jr. misses driving floating jump shot
CLE 118·DET 92
- Q4·2:39
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 118·DET 92
- Q4·2:39
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 118·DET 91
Team stats
CLE
Away
Stat
DET
Home
43-85
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-85
51
FG %
35
11-34
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-39
28-44
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-29
31
Assists
21
11
Turnovers
14
Betting line
DET -4.5·O/U 204.5·CLE +160/DET -192
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Cade CunninghamDET · GDRIVES1999+- Evan MobleyCLE · CCONT9.497
Jalen DurenDET · CCONT994
Ausar ThompsonDET · GDEFL3.592
James HardenCLE · GDRIVES12.676
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
22.3%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
42.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
45.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
39.1%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Disagreement
2.41 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
84% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-1.32
CLV pp
Open price
+145
Close price
+154
Open no-vig
39.1%
Close no-vig
37.8%
Market faded the model · Graded: hit
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+41.0pp
best edge · CLE · DraftKings
CLE
★ best+160DraftKings
edge +41.0pp · implied 36.9%
DET
no live price
| Book | CLE | DET | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +160★ | -192 | +41.0 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
DET vs CLE.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Donovan MitchellCLE27.5± 7.3high
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- James HardenCLE19.6± 6.6high
Rebounds
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Evan MobleyCLE8.0± 3.5high
- Jarrett AllenCLE7.3± 2.3high
Assists
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- James HardenCLE5.9± 2.8high
- Donovan MitchellCLE3.9± 2.0high
Blocks
- Evan MobleyCLE2.1± 1.3high
- Ausar ThompsonDET1.5± 1.3high
- Jarrett AllenCLE1.3± 0.7high
Steals
- Ausar ThompsonDET2.0± 1.8high
- Donovan MitchellCLE1.5± 1.8high
- James HardenCLE1.4± 1.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands