Recap · NBA
leveland Cavaliers held off Detroit Pistons, 116–109.
CLE -4.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 211.5 OVER by 13.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DET · top performer
Duncan Robinson
F · #55
15
Pts
3
Reb
4
Ast
CLE · top performer
Donovan Mitchell
G · #45
35
Pts
10
Reb
4
Ast
NBA · Box score
DET
60-22
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
 T. Harris★F · #12 | 38 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 |
| D. Robinson★F · #55 | 36 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 |
 J. Duren★C · #0 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -14 |
 C. Cunningham★G · #2 | 39 | 27 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 8 | +6 |
 A. Thompson★G · #9 | 29 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +12 |
 P. ReedF · #7 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +11 |
 I. StewartF · #28 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
 J. GreenG · #31 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 |
 C. LeVertG · #8 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -10 |
 D. JenkinsG · #24 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -28 |
| Team | 109 | 40 | 23 | 12 | 4 | 15 | ||
| DNP: T. Smith, M. Sasser, C. Lanier | ||||||||
CLE
52-30
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
 D. Wade★F · #32 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 |
 J. Allen★C · #31 | 32 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 |
 E. Mobley★C · #4 | 36 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +9 |
 J. Harden★G · #1 | 40 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +8 |
| D. Mitchell★G · #45 | 38 | 35 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +7 |
 D. SchroderG · #8 | 22 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
 M. StrusG · #2 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +8 |
 S. MerrillG · #5 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 |
 J. TysonG · #20 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 |
| Team | 116 | 33 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 15 | ||
| DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, T. Bryant, C. Porter Jr., K. Ellis, T. Proctor | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
58
23
Ast
22
Playoff series
DET leads series 2-1
CLE101@DET111CLE97@DET107DET109@CLE116todayDET@CLEupcomingCLE@DETupcomingDET@CLEupcomingCLE@DETupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -4.5
Half-pt below key 5
Total
211.5
Defensive · -14.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DET+16038%CLE-19266%5· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
4.5
+2.0 since open
Total
211.5
-1.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 31pp · 3rd Quarter · 5.8
DETD. Robinson
FGame leader · 36 min
15 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
CLED. Mitchell
GGame leader · 38 min30+ point game
35 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
CLE beat DET 116-109. D. Mitchell led the way with 35 points and 10 rebounds. CLE outscored the other side 32-18 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CLE vs DET
Score progression
7 lead changes
Starters vs bench
production by unitDETstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
83 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST
GS 65
Bench(6)
26 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST
GS 20
CLEstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
88 PTS · 25 REB · 16 AST
GS 70
Bench(4)
28 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST
GS 21
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPaul Reed · enters the game for Jalen Duren
Duncan Robinson · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)
Tobias Harris · makes free throw 1 of 1
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 30 | 18 | 33 | 28 | 109 |
| CLE | 32 | 32 | 19 | 33 | 116 |
Period scoring
DET won 1 · CLE won 3
Q1
Harris 8
Mitchell 9
Q2
Duren 5
Mitchell 11
Q3
Cunningham 10
Mitchell 8
Q4
Cunningham 9
Mitchell 9
Shooting comparison
45%
41-91
FG
58%
43-74
36%
9-25
3PT
38%
12-32
82%
18-22
FT
64%
18-28
Play-by-play · 481 plays
End of Game
DET 109·CLE 116
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 109·CLE 116
Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound
DET 109·CLE 116
Cade Cunningham misses 25-foot three point shot
DET 109·CLE 116
+0.9pp
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 109·CLE 116
−0.6pp
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 109·CLE 115
Duncan Robinson personal foul
DET 109·CLE 114
+2pp
Donovan Mitchell offensive rebound
DET 109·CLE 114
+4pp
Donovan Mitchell misses free throw 2 of 2
DET 109·CLE 114
−5pp
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 109·CLE 114
Cade Cunningham personal foul
DET 109·CLE 113
+4pp
Jarrett Allen defensive rebound
DET 109·CLE 113
+2pp
Duncan Robinson misses 25-foot three point shotBIG MOMENT
DET 109·CLE 113
+5pp
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
DET 109·CLE 113
Dean Wade enters the game for Max Strus
·
DET 109·CLE 113
Pistons Full timeout
DET 109·CLE 113
James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
DET 109·CLE 113
+4pp
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 109·CLE 110
Duncan Robinson personal foulBIG MOMENT
DET 109·CLE 110
+14pp
Cade Cunningham makes 28-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
DET 109·CLE 110
−14pp
James Harden makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
DET 106·CLE 110
+7pp
Cade Cunningham makes 1-foot driving dunkBIG MOMENT
DET 106·CLE 108
−6pp
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
DET 104·CLE 108
Pistons Full timeout
DET 104·CLE 108
James Harden makes 15-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
DET 104·CLE 108
+8pp
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 104·CLE 106
Cade Cunningham out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
DET 104·CLE 106
+10pp
Cade Cunningham defensive rebound
DET 104·CLE 106
−2pp
Donovan Mitchell misses running layupBIG MOMENT
DET 104·CLE 106
−7pp
Cade Cunningham bad pass turnover (Jarrett Allen steals)BIG MOMENT
·
DET 104·CLE 106
+10pp
Team stats
DET
Away
Stat
CLE
Home
41-91
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
43-74
45
FG %
58
9-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-32
18-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-28
23
Assists
22
15
Turnovers
15
Betting line
CLE -4.5·O/U 211.5·DET +160/CLE -192
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Blocks
Steals
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
57.8%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
57.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
55.4%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
61.1%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.40 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
84% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen