Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14NY

53-29

10894

PHI

45-37

NBAFri, May 8FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasPHI -3.5

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

25.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Kelly Oubre Jr.

G · #9

15.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 12pp · 1st Quarter · 7:25

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. TownsC · #32	26	8	3-8	0-2	2-2	+3	12	7
J. HartG · #3	40	12	6-12	0-4	0-2	+5	11	3
M. BridgesG · #25	37	23	8-14	2-4	5-5	+15	3	1
J. BrunsonG · #11	38	33	11-22	3-8	8-9	+13	5	9
M. McBrideG · #2	21	3	1-6	1-5	—	-4	0	2
Bench
J. SochanF · #20	2	1	—	—	1-2	-1	2	0
P. DadietF · #4	2	0	—	—	—	-1	1	0
M. DiawaraF · #51	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
M. RobinsonC · #23	19	6	1-3	—	4-8	+16	6	0
A. HukportiC · #55	3	0	—	—	—	-5	1	0
J. ClarksonG · #00	13	4	2-3	—	—	+11	5	3
L. ShametG · #44	26	15	5-6	2-3	3-4	+20	3	0
J. AlvaradoG · #5	8	3	1-1	1-1	—	+2	0	0
T. KolekG · #13	2	0	0-1	—	—	-2	0	0
Team		108	38-76	9-27	23-32		49	25

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	38	15	6-18	3-8	—	-14	5	3
J. EmbiidC · #21	35	18	7-17	0-4	4-6	-9	6	5
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	36	22	7-16	2-5	6-6	-6	8	1
T. MaxeyG · #0	44	17	8-12	1-3	—	-11	2	7
V. EdgecombeG · #77	40	11	4-9	1-5	2-2	-9	7	4
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	2	3	1-1	—	1-2	+2	0	0
J. WalkerF · #33	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	0	0
D. TerryF · #14	2	0	0-2	—	—	+2	1	1
J. EdwardsF · #11	2	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
D. BarlowF · #25	12	2	1-1	—	—	-7	1	0
A. DrummondC · #1	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	+3	1	0
A. BonaC · #30	2	0	—	—	—	-8	0	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	22	6	2-6	2-5	—	-17	2	2
Team		94	36-84	9-32	13-16		33	23
DNP: J. Broome, K. Lowry

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

38-76

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-84

FG %

9-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-32

23-32

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-16

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

NY leads series 3-0

May 5

PHI98@

NY137

May 6

PHI102@

NY108

May 8

NY108@

PHI94today

May 10

NY144@

PHI114

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

214.5

Defensive · -11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+13043%

PHI-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -3.5↗SpreadBet PHI -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

214.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat PHI 108-94. J. Brunson paced them with 33 PTS, 5 REB, 9 AST. NY outscored the other side 33-21 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 31 REB · 22 AST

GS 64

Bench(9)

29 PTS · 18 REB · 3 AST

GS 26

PHIstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 28 REB · 20 AST

GS 61

Bench(8)

11 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST

GS 6

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI1st Quarter · 7:37 · 8-13

+8pp→ 53% WP

VJ Edgecombe · makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Tyrese Maxey assists)

PHI1st Quarter · 5:12 · 10-20

+10pp→ 63% WP

Kelly Oubre Jr. · misses 23-foot three point jumper

PHI4th Quarter · 8:54 · 88-84

+7pp→ 21% WP

Quentin Grimes · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	27	33	25	23	108
PHI	31	21	24	18	94

Period scoring

NY won 3 · PHI won 1

Hart 6

George 15

Brunson 10

Jr. 11

Brunson 9

Embiid 8

Brunson 9

Grimes 6

PHI

Shooting comparison

PHI

50%

38-76

43%

36-84

33%

9-27

3PT

28%

9-32

72%

23-32

81%

13-16

Play-by-play · 459 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 108·PHI 94
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 108·PHI 94
Q4·17.7
Pacome Dadiet defensive rebound
NY 108·PHI 94
Q4·22.2
Dalen Terry misses running layup
NY 108·PHI 94
Q4·28.1
Pacome Dadiet lost ball turnover (Dalen Terry steals)
·
NY 108·PHI 94
Q4·41.9
Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound
NY 108·PHI 94
Q4·44.4
Dalen Terry misses 10-foot fade away jump shot
NY 108·PHI 94
Q4·54.8
Dalen Terry defensive rebound
NY 108·PHI 94
Q4·56.6
Tyler Kolek misses 12-foot step back jumpshot
NY 108·PHI 94
Q4·1:03
Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound
NY 108·PHI 94
Q4·1:08
Jabari Walker misses 27-foot three point jumper
NY 108·PHI 94
Q4·1:26
Jeremy Sochan makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 108·PHI 94
Q4·1:26
Knicks offensive team rebound
NY 107·PHI 94
Q4·1:26
Jeremy Sochan misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 107·PHI 94
Q4·1:26
Dalen Terry personal take foul
NY 107·PHI 94
Q4·1:30
Trendon Watford makes driving layup (Dalen Terry assists)
·
NY 107·PHI 94
Q4·1:42
Mohamed Diawara out of bounds bad pass turnover
NY 107·PHI 92
Q4·1:59
Trendon Watford makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 107·PHI 92
Q4·1:59
Jeremy Sochan enters the game for Landry Shamet
·
NY 107·PHI 91
Q4·1:59
Pacome Dadiet enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
NY 107·PHI 91
Q4·1:59
76ers offensive team rebound
NY 107·PHI 91
Q4·1:59
Trendon Watford misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 107·PHI 91
Q4·1:59
Landry Shamet personal take foul
NY 107·PHI 91
Q4·2:05
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 107·PHI 91
Q4·2:05
Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 106·PHI 91
Q4·2:05
Mohamed Diawara enters the game for Mikal Bridges
·
NY 106·PHI 91
Q4·2:05
Tyler Kolek enters the game for Josh Hart
·
NY 106·PHI 91
Q4·2:05
Trendon Watford enters the game for Kelly Oubre Jr.
·
NY 106·PHI 91
Q4·2:05
Justin Edwards enters the game for VJ Edgecombe
·
NY 106·PHI 91
Q4·2:05
Dalen Terry enters the game for Joel Embiid
·
NY 106·PHI 91

Betting line

PHI -3.5·O/U 214.5·NY +130/PHI -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks went into Philadelphia 76ers and beat them, 108–94.

NY +3.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 214.5 by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
Karl-Anthony TownsNY · C
CONT7.693

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
50.0%
P(PHI win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
50.3%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
55.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+4.98

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+105

Close price

-118

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

51.7%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

PHI vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high

Assists

LeBron JamesPHI
7.2± 2.6high
Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high

Blocks

Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high
LeBron JamesPHI
1.3± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

PHI

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.9%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.0%

116.4

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

27.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

12.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

12.8

Team pages

New York KnicksPhiladelphia 76ers

Elsewhere in the NBA

Spurs115Timberwolves108Final

Data via ESPN · hoopR