May 10, 26sim 100
18144
20(H)114
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+14NY
NY
53-29
10894
PHI
45-37
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 50 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NBA
ew York Knicks went into Philadelphia 76ers and beat them, 108–94.
NY +3.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 214.5 by 12.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Jalen Brunson
G · #11
25.6Game score
33
Pts
5
Reb
9
Ast
PHI · top performer
Kelly Oubre Jr.
G · #9
15.9Game score
22
Pts
8
Reb
1
Ast
NBA · New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY53-29
10894
PHI45-37
NY53-29PHI45-37
NY
53-29
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 26 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | |
CONT7.685 DRIVES6.147 TOUCHES50.830 | ||||||||
| 40 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +5 | |
DEFL4.197 TOUCHES56.942 CONT4.633 | ||||||||
| 37 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +15 | |
DEFL1.929 DRIVES3.818 CONT3.617 | ||||||||
| 38 | 33 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
TOUCHES89.694 DRIVES1688 DEFL1.618 | ||||||||
| 21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -4 | |
| 19 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +16 | |
| 13 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +11 | |
| 26 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +20 | |
| 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| Team | 108 | 49 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 14 | ||
PHI
45-37
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 38 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -14 | |
DEFL3.592 CONT7.482 TOUCHES62.655 | ||||||||
| 35 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -9 | |
| 36 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
DEFL3.182 CONT3.821 DRIVES3.69 | ||||||||
| 44 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
TOUCHES94.597 DRIVES13.779 CONT4.638 | ||||||||
| 40 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
DEFL2.670 TOUCHES66.167 CONT5.255 | ||||||||
| 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 22 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -17 | |
| Team | 94 | 33 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 11 | ||
| DNP: J. Broome, K. Lowry | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
43
25
Ast
23
Playoff series
NY leads series 3-0
May 5PHI98@NY137
PHI98@NY137May 6PHI102@NY108
PHI102@NY108May 8NY108@PHI94today
NY108@PHI94todayMay 10NY144@PHI114
NY144@PHI114Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
PHI -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
214.5
Defensive · -11.5 vs avg
Moneyline
NY+13043%PHI-15561%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
214.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ PHI
Biggest swing: 12pp · 1st Quarter · 7:25
NYJ. Brunson
GGame leader · 38 min30+ point game
33 PTS · 5 REB · 9 AST
PHIK. Oubre Jr.
GGame leader · 36 min
22 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
NY beat PHI 108-94. J. Brunson paced them with 33 PTS, 5 REB, 9 AST. NY outscored the other side 33-21 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHI vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 31 REB · 22 AST
GS 64
Bench(9)
29 PTS · 18 REB · 3 AST
GS 26
PHIstarters 88% of ptsStarters(5)
83 PTS · 28 REB · 20 AST
GS 61
Bench(8)
11 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
GS 6
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHI1st Quarter · 7:37 · 8-13
+8pp→ 53% WP
VJ Edgecombe · makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Tyrese Maxey assists)
PHI1st Quarter · 5:12 · 10-20
+10pp→ 63% WP
Kelly Oubre Jr. · misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHI4th Quarter · 8:54 · 88-84
+7pp→ 21% WP
Quentin Grimes · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 27 | 33 | 25 | 23 | 108 |
| PHI | 31 | 21 | 24 | 18 | 94 |
Period scoring
NY won 3 · PHI won 1
27
31
Q1
Hart 6
George 15
33
21
Q2
Brunson 10
Jr. 11
25
24
Q3
Brunson 9
Embiid 8
23
18
Q4
Brunson 9
Grimes 6
NY
PHI
Shooting comparison
NY
PHI
50%
38-76
FG
43%
36-84
33%
9-27
3PT
28%
9-32
72%
23-32
FT
81%
13-16
Play-by-play · 459 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 108·PHI 94
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 108·PHI 94
- Q4·17.7
Pacome Dadiet defensive rebound
NY 108·PHI 94
- Q4·22.2
Dalen Terry misses running layup
NY 108·PHI 94
- Q4·28.1
Pacome Dadiet lost ball turnover (Dalen Terry steals)
·
NY 108·PHI 94
- Q4·41.9
Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound
NY 108·PHI 94
- Q4·44.4
Dalen Terry misses 10-foot fade away jump shot
NY 108·PHI 94
- Q4·54.8
Dalen Terry defensive rebound
NY 108·PHI 94
- Q4·56.6
Tyler Kolek misses 12-foot step back jumpshot
NY 108·PHI 94
- Q4·1:03
Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound
NY 108·PHI 94
- Q4·1:08
Jabari Walker misses 27-foot three point jumper
NY 108·PHI 94
- Q4·1:26
Jeremy Sochan makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 108·PHI 94
- Q4·1:26
Knicks offensive team rebound
NY 107·PHI 94
- Q4·1:26
Jeremy Sochan misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 107·PHI 94
- Q4·1:26
Dalen Terry personal take foul
NY 107·PHI 94
- Q4·1:30
Trendon Watford makes driving layup (Dalen Terry assists)
·
NY 107·PHI 94
- Q4·1:42
Mohamed Diawara out of bounds bad pass turnover
NY 107·PHI 92
- Q4·1:59
Trendon Watford makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 107·PHI 92
- Q4·1:59
Jeremy Sochan enters the game for Landry Shamet
·
NY 107·PHI 91
- Q4·1:59
Pacome Dadiet enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
NY 107·PHI 91
- Q4·1:59
76ers offensive team rebound
NY 107·PHI 91
- Q4·1:59
Trendon Watford misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 107·PHI 91
- Q4·1:59
Landry Shamet personal take foul
NY 107·PHI 91
- Q4·2:05
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 107·PHI 91
- Q4·2:05
Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 106·PHI 91
- Q4·2:05
Mohamed Diawara enters the game for Mikal Bridges
·
NY 106·PHI 91
- Q4·2:05
Tyler Kolek enters the game for Josh Hart
·
NY 106·PHI 91
- Q4·2:05
Trendon Watford enters the game for Kelly Oubre Jr.
·
NY 106·PHI 91
- Q4·2:05
Justin Edwards enters the game for VJ Edgecombe
·
NY 106·PHI 91
- Q4·2:05
Dalen Terry enters the game for Joel Embiid
·
NY 106·PHI 91
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
PHI
Home
38-76
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-84
50
FG %
43
9-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-32
23-32
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-16
25
Assists
23
14
Turnovers
11
Betting line
PHI -3.5·O/U 214.5·NY +130/PHI -155
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Josh HartNY · GDEFL4.197
Tyrese MaxeyPHI · GTOUCHES94.597- Jalen BrunsonNY · GTOUCHES89.694
Paul GeorgePHI · FDEFL3.592
Karl-Anthony TownsNY · CCONT7.685
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
33.5%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
45.5%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
49.7%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Disagreement
2.07 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+4.98
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+105
Close price
-118
Open no-vig
46.8%
Close no-vig
51.7%
Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss
Player projections
PHI vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Jalen BrunsonNY25.9± 8.0high
- Joel EmbiidPHI25.3± 7.2high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI25.0± 6.5high
Rebounds
- Karl-Anthony TownsNY10.7± 3.3high
- Josh HartNY8.2± 3.2high
- Joel EmbiidPHI8.0± 3.5high
Assists
- Jalen BrunsonNY6.5± 3.3high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI5.9± 1.9high
- Karl-Anthony TownsNY4.9± 2.9high
Blocks
- Joel EmbiidPHI1.3± 1.4high
- Adem BonaPHI1.1± 1.3high
- Karl-Anthony TownsNY0.9± 0.7high
Steals
- Josh HartNY1.8± 1.4high
- OG AnunobyNY1.6± 1.4high
- Paul GeorgePHI1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands