NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TOR

CLE

52-30

110112

TOR

46-36

NBAFri, May 1FinalSeriesTOR wins series 3-0VegasCLE -4.5

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 112–110 in overtime. Decided by 2.

TOR +4.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 218.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

Evan Mobley

C · #4

23.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Scottie Barnes

F · #4

28.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. AllenC · #31	34	14	6-8	—	2-6	+8	7	1
E. MobleyC · #4	41	26	9-15	3-7	5-8	-3	14	3
J. HardenG · #1	44	16	5-14	1-4	5-5	+11	9	9
D. MitchellG · #45	41	24	11-26	2-10	—	-4	5	2
M. StrusG · #2	20	6	2-6	2-4	—	-4	5	3
Bench
D. WadeF · #32	28	10	4-8	2-6	—	+10	5	0
T. BryantC · #3	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	2	0
D. SchroderG · #8	16	7	0-4	0-1	7-8	-9	0	1
S. MerrillG · #5	18	2	1-5	0-3	—	-6	1	1
J. TysonG · #20	16	5	2-6	1-5	—	-6	4	3
Team		110	40-93	11-41	19-27		52	23
DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, C. Porter Jr., K. Ellis, T. Proctor

DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, C. Porter Jr., K. Ellis, T. Proctor

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. BarrettF · #9	43	24	8-21	4-12	4-5	+9	9	3
S. BarnesF · #4	48	25	11-21	0-2	3-4	+2	7	14
J. PoeltlC · #19	22	2	1-3	—	—	0	4	1
J. SheadG · #23	33	7	2-9	2-7	1-2	+6	1	6
J. WalterG · #14	43	24	7-13	4-9	6-6	-6	5	0
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	14	2	1-3	0-1	—	+4	4	1
J. BattleF · #77	11	5	2-4	1-2	—	-6	0	0
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	40	17	6-10	—	5-6	+2	7	2
A.J. LawsonG · #0	10	6	2-3	2-3	—	-1	1	0
Team		112	40-87	13-36	19-23		38	27
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Mogbo, G. Temple, G. Dick

DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Mogbo, G. Temple, G. Dick

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Playoff series

Series tied 3-3

Apr 18

TOR113@

CLE126

Apr 20

TOR105@

CLE115

Apr 24

CLE104@

TOR126

Apr 26

CLE89@

TOR93

Apr 29

TOR120@

CLE125

May 1

CLE110@

TOR112today

May 3

TOR102@

CLE114

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-19866%

TOR+16438%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -4.5↗SpreadBet CLE -4.5↗

Line movement · 134 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 51pp · OT · 1.2

CLE

E. Mobley

Game leader · 41 minDouble-double

26 PTS · 14 REB · 3 AST

TOR

S. Barnes

Game leader · 48 minDouble-double

25 PTS · 7 REB · 14 AST

How it ended

TOR beat CLE 112-110. S. Barnes paced them with 25 PTS, 7 REB, 14 AST. CLE outscored the other side 23-12 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 40 REB · 18 AST

GS 70

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 11

TORstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 26 REB · 24 AST

GS 69

Bench(4)

30 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOROT · 25.6 · 110-108

+24pp→ 52% WP

Jarrett Allen · shooting foul

TOROT · 10.9 · 110-109

+31pp→ 46% WP

Evan Mobley · out of bounds lost ball turnover

TOROT · 1.2 · 110-112

+51pp→ 96% WP

RJ Barrett · makes 29-foot three pointer (Scottie Barnes assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
CLE	32	19	30	23	6	110
TOR	32	29	31	12	8	112

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · TOR won 3

Mobley 8

Barrett 9

Tyson 5

Walter 8

Allen 6

Murray-Boyles 7

Mitchell 11

Barnes 5

Harden 4

Barrett 3

CLE

TOR

Shooting comparison

CLE

TOR

43%

40-93

46%

40-87

27%

11-41

3PT

36%

13-36

70%

19-27

83%

19-23

Play-by-play · 526 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
CLE 110·TOR 112
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
CLE 110·TOR 112
OT·0.1
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
CLE 110·TOR 112
+0.9pp
OT·0.6
Evan Mobley misses 28-foot three point jumper
CLE 110·TOR 112
+0.8pp
OT·1.2
Max Strus enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
CLE 110·TOR 112
OT·1.2
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 110·TOR 112
+2pp
OT·1.2
RJ Barrett makes 29-foot three pointer (Scottie Barnes assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 110·TOR 112
+51pp
OT·10.9
Dean Wade enters the game for Max Strus
·
CLE 110·TOR 109
OT·10.9
Jarrett Allen enters the game for Dennis Schroder
·
CLE 110·TOR 109
OT·10.9
Jamal Shead enters the game for A.J. Lawson
·
CLE 110·TOR 109
OT·10.9
Evan Mobley out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
CLE 110·TOR 109
+31pp
OT·18.8
A.J. Lawson enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
CLE 110·TOR 109
OT·18.8
Max Strus enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
CLE 110·TOR 109
OT·18.8
Dennis Schroder enters the game for Dean Wade
·
CLE 110·TOR 109
OT·18.8
Scottie Barnes personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 110·TOR 109
−19pp
OT·23.9
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
CLE 110·TOR 109
OT·25.6
Jamal Shead misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 110·TOR 109
−20pp
OT·25.6
Jamal Shead makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 110·TOR 109
+2pp
OT·25.6
Jarrett Allen shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 110·TOR 108
+24pp
OT·33.7
Raptors Full timeout
CLE 110·TOR 108
OT·33.7
Donovan Mitchell makes 2-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 110·TOR 108
−18pp
OT·48.7
Jarrett Allen defensive rebound
CLE 108·TOR 108
−1pp
OT·51.6
Ja'Kobe Walter misses driving floating jump shot
CLE 108·TOR 108
−4pp
OT·53.9
Raptors offensive team rebound
CLE 108·TOR 108
+4pp
OT·53.9
Donovan Mitchell blocks Collin Murray-Boyles 's 1-foot running layup
·
CLE 108·TOR 108
−4pp
OT·56.0
Evan Mobley bad pass turnover (Scottie Barnes steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 108·TOR 108
+5pp
OT·57.3
Evan Mobley offensive rebound
CLE 108·TOR 108
−4pp
OT·1:02
James Harden misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 108·TOR 108
+5pp
OT·1:25
Scottie Barnes makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Jamal Shead assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 108·TOR 108
+12pp
OT·1:36
James Harden makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 108·TOR 106
−11pp

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

40-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-87

FG %

11-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-36

19-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-23

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

CLE -4.5·O/U 218.5·CLE -198/TOR +164

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.898
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.798
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
59.4%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
63.9%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
57.7%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.60

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+164

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.3%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

TOR vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
RJ BarrettTOR
21.8± 4.6high
Scottie BarnesTOR
20.0± 6.0high

Rebounds

Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
6.7± 3.3high

Assists

Scottie BarnesTOR
7.1± 3.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
5.1± 2.5high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
1.5± 1.4high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Chucky HepburnTOR
1.9± 2.1low
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
1.6± 0.9high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

TOR

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.5%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.1%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

27.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR