Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TOR

CLE

52-30

110112

TOR

46-36

NBAFri, May 1FinalSeriesTOR wins series 3-0VegasCLE -4.5

CLE · top performer

Evan Mobley

C · #4

23.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Scottie Barnes

F · #4

28.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 51pp · OT · 1.2

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. AllenC · #31	34	14	6-8	—	2-6	+8	7	1
E. MobleyC · #4	41	26	9-15	3-7	5-8	-3	14	3
J. HardenG · #1	44	16	5-14	1-4	5-5	+11	9	9
D. MitchellG · #45	41	24	11-26	2-10	—	-4	5	2
M. StrusG · #2	20	6	2-6	2-4	—	-4	5	3
Bench
D. WadeF · #32	28	10	4-8	2-6	—	+10	5	0
T. BryantC · #3	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	2	0
D. SchroderG · #8	16	7	0-4	0-1	7-8	-9	0	1
S. MerrillG · #5	18	2	1-5	0-3	—	-6	1	1
J. TysonG · #20	16	5	2-6	1-5	—	-6	4	3
Team		110	40-93	11-41	19-27		52	23
DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, C. Porter Jr., K. Ellis, T. Proctor

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. BarrettF · #9	43	24	8-21	4-12	4-5	+9	9	3
S. BarnesF · #4	48	25	11-21	0-2	3-4	+2	7	14
J. PoeltlC · #19	22	2	1-3	—	—	0	4	1
J. SheadG · #23	33	7	2-9	2-7	1-2	+6	1	6
J. WalterG · #14	43	24	7-13	4-9	6-6	-6	5	0
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	14	2	1-3	0-1	—	+4	4	1
J. BattleF · #77	11	5	2-4	1-2	—	-6	0	0
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	40	17	6-10	—	5-6	+2	7	2
A.J. LawsonG · #0	10	6	2-3	2-3	—	-1	1	0
Team		112	40-87	13-36	19-23		38	27
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Mogbo, G. Temple, G. Dick

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

40-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-87

FG %

11-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-36

19-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-23

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 3-3

Apr 18

TOR113@

CLE126

Apr 20

TOR105@

CLE115

Apr 24

CLE104@

TOR126

Apr 26

CLE89@

TOR93

Apr 29

TOR120@

CLE125

May 1

CLE110@

TOR112today

May 3

TOR102@

CLE114

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-19866%

TOR+16438%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -4.5↗SpreadBet CLE -4.5↗

Line movement · 138 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat CLE 112-110. S. Barnes paced them with 25 PTS, 7 REB, 14 AST. CLE outscored the other side 23-12 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 40 REB · 18 AST

GS 70

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 11

TORstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 26 REB · 24 AST

GS 69

Bench(4)

30 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOROT · 25.6 · 110-108

+24pp→ 52% WP

Jarrett Allen · shooting foul

TOROT · 10.9 · 110-109

+31pp→ 46% WP

Evan Mobley · out of bounds lost ball turnover

TOROT · 1.2 · 110-112

+51pp→ 96% WP

RJ Barrett · makes 29-foot three pointer (Scottie Barnes assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
CLE	32	19	30	23	6	110
TOR	32	29	31	12	8	112

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · TOR won 3

Mobley 8

Barrett 9

Tyson 5

Walter 8

Allen 6

Murray-Boyles 7

Mitchell 11

Barnes 5

Harden 4

Barrett 3

CLE

TOR

Shooting comparison

CLE

TOR

43%

40-93

46%

40-87

27%

11-41

3PT

36%

13-36

70%

19-27

83%

19-23

Play-by-play · 526 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
CLE 110·TOR 112
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
CLE 110·TOR 112
OT·0.1
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
CLE 110·TOR 112
+0.9pp
OT·0.6
Evan Mobley misses 28-foot three point jumper
CLE 110·TOR 112
+0.8pp
OT·1.2
Max Strus enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
CLE 110·TOR 112
OT·1.2
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 110·TOR 112
+2pp
OT·1.2
RJ Barrett makes 29-foot three pointer (Scottie Barnes assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 110·TOR 112
+51pp
OT·10.9
Dean Wade enters the game for Max Strus
·
CLE 110·TOR 109
OT·10.9
Jarrett Allen enters the game for Dennis Schroder
·
CLE 110·TOR 109
OT·10.9
Jamal Shead enters the game for A.J. Lawson
·
CLE 110·TOR 109
OT·10.9
Evan Mobley out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
CLE 110·TOR 109
+31pp
OT·18.8
A.J. Lawson enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
CLE 110·TOR 109
OT·18.8
Max Strus enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
CLE 110·TOR 109
OT·18.8
Dennis Schroder enters the game for Dean Wade
·
CLE 110·TOR 109
OT·18.8
Scottie Barnes personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 110·TOR 109
−19pp
OT·23.9
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
CLE 110·TOR 109
OT·25.6
Jamal Shead misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 110·TOR 109
−20pp
OT·25.6
Jamal Shead makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 110·TOR 109
+2pp
OT·25.6
Jarrett Allen shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 110·TOR 108
+24pp
OT·33.7
Raptors Full timeout
CLE 110·TOR 108
OT·33.7
Donovan Mitchell makes 2-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 110·TOR 108
−18pp
OT·48.7
Jarrett Allen defensive rebound
CLE 108·TOR 108
−1pp
OT·51.6
Ja'Kobe Walter misses driving floating jump shot
CLE 108·TOR 108
−4pp
OT·53.9
Raptors offensive team rebound
CLE 108·TOR 108
+4pp
OT·53.9
Donovan Mitchell blocks Collin Murray-Boyles 's 1-foot running layup
·
CLE 108·TOR 108
−4pp
OT·56.0
Evan Mobley bad pass turnover (Scottie Barnes steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 108·TOR 108
+5pp
OT·57.3
Evan Mobley offensive rebound
CLE 108·TOR 108
−4pp
OT·1:02
James Harden misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 108·TOR 108
+5pp
OT·1:25
Scottie Barnes makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Jamal Shead assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 108·TOR 108
+12pp
OT·1:36
James Harden makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 108·TOR 106
−11pp

Betting line

CLE -4.5·O/U 218.5·CLE -198/TOR +164

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 112–110 in overtime. Decided by 2.

TOR +4.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 218.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
59.4%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
63.9%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
57.7%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.60

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+164

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.3%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

TOR vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
RJ BarrettTOR
21.8± 4.6high
Scottie BarnesTOR
20.0± 6.0high

Rebounds

Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
6.7± 3.3high

Assists

Scottie BarnesTOR
7.1± 3.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
5.1± 2.5high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
1.5± 1.4high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Chucky HepburnTOR
1.9± 2.1low
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
1.6± 0.9high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

TOR

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.5%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.1%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

27.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR