NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10CLE

TOR

46-36

105115

CLE

52-30

NBAMon, Apr 20FinalSeriesTOR wins series 3-0VegasCLE -9.5

TOR · top performer

Scottie Barnes

F · #4

18.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

James Harden

G · #1

24.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 11pp · 3rd Quarter · 6:06

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	36	7	3-15	1-3	—	-15	4	3
R. BarrettF · #9	38	22	10-13	0-1	2-2	-9	9	5
S. BarnesF · #4	40	26	11-19	1-4	3-4	-17	4	5
J. PoeltlC · #19	9	2	1-2	—	—	-7	4	1
J. SheadG · #23	38	3	1-5	1-5	—	+1	3	4
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	21	12	5-8	1-3	1-2	+7	10	2
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	26	17	6-10	0-2	5-6	-6	7	1
A.J. LawsonG · #0	5	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	+2	0	1
J. WalterG · #14	28	14	5-9	3-7	1-1	-6	1	1
Team		105	42-83	7-26	14-17		42	23
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Battle, J. Mogbo, G. Temple, G. Dick

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	28	3	1-3	1-3	—	+14	5	1
J. AllenC · #31	25	10	4-6	—	2-4	+18	3	1
E. MobleyC · #4	33	25	11-13	1-2	2-3	+3	8	2
J. HardenG · #1	35	28	9-14	3-8	7-10	+14	5	4
D. MitchellG · #45	37	30	13-23	4-10	0-1	+11	7	5
Bench
D. SchroderG · #8	14	5	1-5	0-2	3-3	-3	1	4
M. StrusG · #2	27	6	2-5	2-4	—	-3	3	3
S. MerrillG · #5	20	5	2-6	1-5	0-1	+1	1	1
J. TysonG · #20	12	3	1-4	1-2	—	-2	2	1
K. EllisG · #14	9	0	0-4	0-4	—	-3	0	0
Team		115	44-83	13-40	14-22		35	22
DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, C. Porter Jr., T. Proctor

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

42-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-83

FG %

7-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-40

14-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-22

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

CLE leads series 2-0

Apr 18

TOR113@

CLE126

Apr 20

TOR105@

CLE115today

Apr 24

CLE104@

TOR126

Apr 26

CLE89@

TOR93

Apr 29

TOR120@

CLE125

May 1

CLE110@

TOR112

May 3

TOR102@

CLE114

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+35022%

CLE-45582%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -9.5↗SpreadBet CLE -9.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat TOR 115-105. J. Harden paced them with 28 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST

GS 36

Bench(4)

45 PTS · 18 REB · 5 AST

GS 38

CLEstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 28 REB · 13 AST

GS 89

Bench(5)

19 PTS · 7 REB · 9 AST

GS 8

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE2nd Quarter · 6:12 · 34-41

+6pp→ 82% WP

James Harden · makes free throw 1 of 3

TOR2nd Quarter · 2:23 · 45-50

+9pp→ 24% WP

Scottie Barnes · makes 26-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)

CLE3rd Quarter · 6:06 · 57-73

+11pp→ 96% WP

Dean Wade · lost ball turnover (Jamal Shead steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	19	29	29	28	105
CLE	26	28	30	31	115

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · CLE won 3

Murray-Boyles 4

Mitchell 7

Barnes 9

Harden 14

Barnes 7

Mobley 11

Barnes 9

Tyson 14

TOR

CLE

Shooting comparison

TOR

CLE

51%

42-83

53%

44-83

27%

7-26

3PT

33%

13-40

82%

14-17

64%

14-22

Play-by-play · 467 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 105·CLE 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 105·CLE 115
Q4·3.3
RJ Barrett makes driving layup
TOR 105·CLE 115
Q4·8.3
Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound
TOR 103·CLE 115
Q4·10.1
James Harden misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 103·CLE 115
Q4·10.1
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 103·CLE 115
Q4·10.1
Scottie Barnes personal foul
TOR 103·CLE 114
Q4·16.5
James Harden defensive rebound
TOR 103·CLE 114
Q4·19.2
Scottie Barnes misses driving layup
TOR 103·CLE 114
Q4·25.8
Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 103·CLE 114
Q4·25.8
Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
TOR 103·CLE 113
Q4·25.8
Dean Wade enters the game for Sam Merrill
·
TOR 103·CLE 113
Q4·25.8
Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 103·CLE 113
Q4·25.8
Jamal Shead personal foul
TOR 103·CLE 112
Q4·27.6
Collin Murray-Boyles enters the game for Sandro Mamukelashvili
·
TOR 103·CLE 112
Q4·27.6
Dennis Schroder enters the game for Keon Ellis
·
TOR 103·CLE 112
Q4·27.6
Sam Merrill enters the game for Dean Wade
·
TOR 103·CLE 112
Q4·27.6
Cavaliers Full timeout
TOR 103·CLE 112
Q4·27.6
Scottie Barnes makes 2-foot driving dunk
TOR 103·CLE 112
Q4·32.8
James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 101·CLE 112
Q4·32.8
Keon Ellis enters the game for Donovan Mitchell
·
TOR 101·CLE 111
Q4·32.8
Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
TOR 101·CLE 111
Q4·32.8
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 101·CLE 111
Q4·32.8
Jamal Shead personal foul
TOR 101·CLE 110
Q4·37.1
Collin Murray-Boyles makes dunk (Brandon Ingram assists)
·
TOR 101·CLE 110
Q4·45.3
Donovan Mitchell makes 13-foot two point shot
TOR 99·CLE 110
Q4·1:08
Jamal Shead personal foul
TOR 99·CLE 108
+0.5pp
Q4·1:12
Brandon Ingram makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)
·
TOR 99·CLE 108
−0.5pp
Q4·1:20
Jamal Shead defensive rebound
TOR 96·CLE 108
Q4·1:24
Dean Wade misses 22-foot three point jumper
TOR 96·CLE 108

Betting line

CLE -9.5·O/U 221.5·TOR +350/CLE -455

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers held off Toronto Raptors, 115–105.

CLE -9.5 cashed (won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
RJ BarrettTOR
21.8± 4.6high
Scottie BarnesTOR
20.0± 6.0high

Rebounds

Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
6.7± 3.3high

Assists

Scottie BarnesTOR
7.1± 3.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
5.1± 2.5high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
1.5± 1.4high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Chucky HepburnTOR
1.9± 2.1low
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
1.6± 0.9high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

CLE

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

48.1%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

117.4

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.1

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR