HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox

CLE
CLE

CLE

39-34

PregameTue, 7:40 PM EDT
CHW
CHW

CHW

38-33

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
⤓

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

›

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Parker Messick

Parker Messick

SP · #77

6-3

W-L

2.68

ERA

1.09

WHIP

82

K

80.2

IP

Last 3 starts

vsNYYL(6-3)5.2 IP4 ER4 K
@TEXL(6-2)5.2 IP3 ER4 K
vsBOS-5.0 IP1 ER4 K

Home starter

Sean Burke

Sean Burke

SP · #59

3-4

W-L

4.15

ERA

1.26

WHIP

73

K

73.2

IP

Last 3 starts

vsLADL(3-4)4.0 IP4 ER6 K
@PHIW(3-3)4.1 IP3 ER7 K
vsDET-5.1 IP1 ER6 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHW win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.0± 3.5low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.2± 3.1low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    5.8± 2.3low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Miguel VargasCHW
    1.0± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Braden MontgomeryCHW
    1.7± 3.0low
  • Tristan PetersCHW
    1.7± 1.9high
  • Andrew BenintendiCHW
    1.6± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Braden MontgomeryCHW
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Andrew BenintendiCHW
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Tristan PetersCHW
    0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Anthony KayCHW
    2.5± 3.4low
  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    2.5± 2.9low
  • Joey CantilloCLE
    2.5± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

CLE

league avg

CHW

CHW

.685

OPS

.717

▶

.733

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.323

3.97

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.72

3.73

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.39

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.33

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 60-34
61%Last 30 · 297-188
Receipts →
LAST NIGHT · MLBB. Reynolds (PIT): 4 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Gilbert (SEA): 7.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER in a win over BAL
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Salt Lake (PCL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 21 PTS · 5 REB · 14 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER in a win over MIA
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 5.0 IP · 7 K in a win over BOS
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Boston (IND): 18 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLPredators: Acquired C Ross Colton and G Isak Posch from Colorado for G Magnus Chrona, a 2…
TRANSACTION · NHLCanucks: Signed D Cole Clayton to a one-year contract. (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Acquired G Samuel Ersson, D Emil Andrae and a 2026 third-round pick from Phi…
TONIGHT · WNBANY @ CHI, 6/17 - 8:00 PM EDT — NY -10.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBB. Reynolds (PIT): 4 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Gilbert (SEA): 7.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER in a win over BAL
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Salt Lake (PCL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 21 PTS · 5 REB · 14 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER in a win over MIA
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 5.0 IP · 7 K in a win over BOS
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Boston (IND): 18 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLPredators: Acquired C Ross Colton and G Isak Posch from Colorado for G Magnus Chrona, a 2…
TRANSACTION · NHLCanucks: Signed D Cole Clayton to a one-year contract. (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Acquired G Samuel Ersson, D Emil Andrae and a 2026 third-round pick from Phi…
TONIGHT · WNBANY @ CHI, 6/17 - 8:00 PM EDT — NY -10.5
MLB·Tue, Jun 23·6/23 - 7:40 PM EDT/Seriestied 1-1

Preview · MLB

Cleveland Guardians visit Chicago White Sox Tuesday at 6/23 - 7:40 PM EDT.

The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox · pregame

MLB · Box score

6/23 - 7:40 PM EDT

No player stats available yet.

No player stats available yet.

Season series

Series starts 6/22

Jun 22CLECLE@CHWCHWupcoming
Jun 23CLECLE@CHWCHWtoday
Jun 24CLECLE@CHWCHWupcoming
Jul 2CHWCHW@CLECLEupcoming
Jul 3CHWCHW@CLECLEupcoming
Jul 4CHWCHW@CLECLEupcoming
Jul 5CHWCHW@CLECLEupcoming
Aug 7CLECLE@CHWCHWupcoming
Aug 8CLECLE@CHWCHWupcoming
Aug 9CLECLE@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 14CHWCHW@CLECLEupcoming
Sep 15CHWCHW@CLECLEupcoming
Sep 16CHWCHW@CLECLEupcoming

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 28CHWCHW7@CLECLE5
Mar 6CLECLE12@CHWCHW3

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
CLECLESP
P. Messick

P. Messick

#77 · 6-3

ERA

2.68

K

82

SV

—

Last 3 starts

6/10vsNYYNYY5.2 IP · 4 ER · 4 KL(6-3)
6/6@TEXTEX5.2 IP · 3 ER · 4 KL(6-2)
5/30vsBOSBOS5.0 IP · 1 ER · 4 K-
VS
CHWCHWSP
S. Burke

S. Burke

#59 · 3-4

ERA

4.15

K

73

SV

—

Last 3 starts

6/13vsLADLAD4.0 IP · 4 ER · 6 KL(3-4)
6/6@PHIPHI4.1 IP · 3 ER · 7 KW(3-3)
5/31vsDETDET5.1 IP · 1 ER · 6 K-

Scouting report

CLE @ CHW

6/23 - 7:40 PM EDT

Tale of the tape

CLEmetricCHW

39-34

Record

38-33

#4

Conf rank

#3

0.0

Pt diff

0.0

L1

Streak

L1

3-7

Last 10

6-4

Bullpen used yesterday

CLE

2.3 bullpen IP

  • C. Holderman0.1 IP7 P
  • H. Gaddis1.0 IP13 P
  • M. Festa1.0 IP11 P

L 2-1 · Jun 16

CHW

4.7 bullpen IP · heavy

  • C. Murphy0.2 IP27 P
  • J. Rock3.0 IP49 P
  • L. Acuna1.0 IP20 P

L 12-2 · Jun 16

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

290

Runs

335

552

Hits

563

35

Errors

35

884

TB

965

66

HR

97

282

BB

254

569

K

644

0

LOB

0