MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

PHI

40-33

PregameTue, 6:45 PM EDT

WSH

39-35

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Andrew Painter

SP · #24

1-7

W-L

6.43

ERA

1.57

WHIP

63.0

Last 3 starts

@MIL-5.0 IP5 ER3 K

vsCHWL(1-7)4.2 IP6 ER4 K

@LADL(1-6)3.1 IP4 ER3 K

Home starter

Zack Littell

SP · #18

6-5

W-L

5.32

ERA

1.35

WHIP

66.0

Last 3 starts

vsSEAL(6-5)1.2 IP5 ER0 K

@ARIW(6-4)5.0 IP1 ER4 K

vsSDW(5-4)6.0 IP2 ER5 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesPHI leads series 1-0-1

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.7± 3.4medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.4± 2.8medium
Zack WheelerPHI
6.2± 2.6low

Hits

James WoodWSH
1.3± 1.0high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.1± 1.1high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

James WoodWSH
2.3± 2.2high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.1± 2.3high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.9± 1.2high
Bryson StottPHI
0.7± 0.8high
Gabriel Rincones Jr.PHI
0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.7± 2.9low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low
Zack LittellWSH
2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

WSH

.686

OPS

.717

▶

.748

.297

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.11

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.47

4.02

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.63

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

9.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league