Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at CON?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4TOR

TOR

8-8

10197

CON

2-15

WNBAFri, Jun 19FinalSeriesTOR leads series 2-0VegasCON -1.5

TOR · top performer

Marina Mabrey

G · #3

22.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CON · top performer

Kennedy Burke

G · #25

18.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ CON

Biggest swing: 26pp · 1st Quarter · 2:46

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HarrisonF · #21	30	15	5-14	2-3	3-3	+2	6	5
L. JuskaiteF · #2	29	4	2-7	0-1	—	+7	7	4
T. FagbenleC · #14	32	19	8-9	2-2	1-2	+8	9	2
M. MabreyG · #3	33	37	14-24	9-12	—	+21	4	4
J. AllemandG · #22	34	4	2-5	0-3	—	+12	0	9
Bench
M. CondeF · #10	28	19	5-12	5-8	4-4	0	6	3
T. KeyF · #7	3	0	—	—	—	-10	0	0
K. NurseG · #11	5	0	0-3	0-3	—	-15	0	0
T. PouyeG · #32	6	3	1-2	1-2	—	-5	1	0
Team		101	37-76	19-34	8-9		33	27
DNP: N. Sabally, B. Sykes, K. Rice

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. EdwardsF · #8	20	6	2-5	—	2-2	-2	2	2
D. MillerF · #1	21	10	4-10	1-3	1-2	-5	3	2
B. GrinerC · #42	24	16	7-11	—	2-3	-19	8	2
S. RiversG · #22	21	3	1-4	1-3	—	-11	3	4
L. LacanG · #47	31	16	5-16	2-8	4-5	-14	1	3
Bench
A. MorrowF · #24	20	8	3-9	0-3	2-2	+1	10	4
N. AnglomaF · #33	3	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	16	13	6-9	—	1-2	+15	3	0
K. BurkeG · #25	27	18	5-9	2-5	6-6	+11	3	1
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	18	7	2-3	—	3-4	+7	2	3
Team		97	35-76	6-22	21-26		35	21
DNP: R. Beers, H. Van Lith, G. Kneepkens, A. Jackson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CON

Home

37-76

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-76

FG %

19-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-22

8-9

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 2-0

Jun 10

CON102@

TOR106

Jun 19

TOR101@

CON97today

Sep 24

TOR@

CONupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CON -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

168.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+11048%

CON-13057%

10· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CON -1.5↗SpreadBet CON -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

168.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat CON 101-97. M. Mabrey led the way with 37 points and 4 assists. TOR outscored the other side 37-23 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CON vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 26 REB · 24 AST

GS 64

Bench(4)

22 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST

GS 15

CONstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

51 PTS · 17 REB · 13 AST

GS 37

Bench(5)

46 PTS · 18 REB · 8 AST

GS 47

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR1st Quarter · 2:46 · 18-13

+26pp→ 68% WP

Marina Mabrey · lost ball turnover (Aneesah Morrow steals)

CON4th Quarter · 22.1 · 97-94

+24pp→ 31% WP

Leila Lacan · makes free throw 1 of 2

TOR4th Quarter · 18.0 · 97-95

+22pp→ 94% WP

Saniya Rivers · personal take foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	20	17	27	37	101
CON	24	26	24	23	97

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · CON won 2

Mabrey 11

Griner 6

Conde 9

Mabrey 11

Fagbenle 6

Edwards 12

Mabrey 21

Lacan 9

TOR

CON

Shooting comparison

TOR

CON

49%

37-76

46%

35-76

56%

19-34

3PT

27%

6-22

89%

8-9

81%

21-26

Play-by-play · 407 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 101·CON 97
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 101·CON 97
Q4·0.6
Diamond Miller makes driving layup
TOR 101·CON 97
−0.8pp
Q4·9.0
Maria Conde makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 101·CON 95
+0.6pp
Q4·9.0
Maria Conde makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 100·CON 95
Q4·9.0
Saniya Rivers personal take foul
TOR 99·CON 95
−2pp
Q4·10.1
Tempo Full timeout
TOR 99·CON 95
Q4·10.1
Tempo defensive team rebound
TOR 99·CON 95
−1pp
Q4·11.1
Leila Lacan misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
TOR 99·CON 95
−6pp
Q4·18.0
Sun timeout
TOR 99·CON 95
Q4·18.0
Maria Conde makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 99·CON 95
+4pp
Q4·18.0
Maria Conde makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 98·CON 95
−1pp
Q4·18.0
Saniya Rivers personal take foulBIG MOMENT
TOR 97·CON 95
−22pp
Q4·20.6
(00:20.6) [Sun] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Sun] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
TOR 97·CON 95
+11pp
Q4·20.6
Sun Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
TOR 97·CON 95
+10pp
Q4·20.6
Diamond Miller personal take foulBIG MOMENT
TOR 97·CON 95
−13pp
Q4·22.1
Tempo timeout
TOR 97·CON 95
Q4·22.1
Leila Lacan makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
TOR 97·CON 95
−10pp
Q4·22.1
Leila Lacan makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
TOR 97·CON 94
+24pp
Q4·22.1
Tempo Full timeout
TOR 97·CON 93
Q4·22.1
(00:22.1) [Tempo] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Tempo] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
TOR 97·CON 93
−22pp
Q4·22.1
Temi Fagbenle shooting foulBIG MOMENT
TOR 97·CON 93
+14pp
Q4·26.9
Brittney Griner defensive rebound
TOR 97·CON 93
+0.6pp
Q4·30.6
Marina Mabrey misses 21-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 97·CON 93
+3pp
Q4·51.2
Isabelle Harrison defensive rebound
TOR 97·CON 93
−3pp
Q4·55.4
Leila Lacan misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
TOR 97·CON 93
−7pp
Q4·1:03
Sun Full timeout
TOR 97·CON 93
Q4·1:03
Marina Mabrey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isabelle Harrison assists)BIG MOMENT
·
TOR 97·CON 93
−21pp
Q4·1:17
Brittney Griner makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 94·CON 93
+1pp
Q4·1:17
Sun offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
TOR 94·CON 92
−9pp

Betting line

CON -1.5·O/U 168.5·TOR +110/CON -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

oronto Tempo went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 101–97. Decided by 4.

TOR +1.5 cashed (CON lost outright). Total cleared the 168.5 OVER by 29.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

TOR

CON

eFG%

shooting

61.2%

50.0%

TOV%

ball control

15.8%

8.4%

OREB%

offensive glass

30.3%

34.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

10.5%

27.6%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowCON · F
DRB%.37599+
Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Saniya RiversCON · G
AST/TO2.179
Laura JuskaiteTOR · F
TS%.60874
Maria CondeTOR · F
DRB%.18272

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

10.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
31.4%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
30.7%
P(CON win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
29.9%
P(CON win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at CON?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+49.6pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best

+140DraftKings

edge +49.6pp · implied 39.3%

CON

no live price

Book	TOR	CON	Best edge
DraftKings	+140★	-180	+49.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CON vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
19.6± 9.5medium
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium
Kiki RiceTOR
12.4± 7.6low

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowCON
10.1± 5.0medium
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
5.3± 2.6low
Nyara SaballyTOR
5.2± 2.2low

Assists

Leila LacanCON
4.8± 2.8low
Marina MabreyTOR
4.2± 2.7medium
Julie AllemandTOR
4.1± 3.1low

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.5± 1.6low
Nyara SaballyTOR
1.1± 1.0low
Saniya RiversCON
0.9± 1.0medium

Steals

Leila LacanCON
1.6± 1.4low
Julie AllemandTOR
1.6± 1.3low
Laura JuskaiteTOR
1.6± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

TOR

league avg

CON

43.8%

FG%

◀

44.6

42.6%

35.0%

3PT %

◀

33.5

26.0%

89.6

PPG

◀

85.9

79.2

19.4

Assists / G

◀

18.0

18.7

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

13.4

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Amy Bonner

Referee

Agon Abazi

Referee

Ken Jones

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Data via ESPN · wehoop