Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at GS?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+6MIN

MIN

13-3

8175

10-6

WNBAFri, Jun 19FinalSeriesMIN leads series 2-0VegasMIN -2.5

MIN · top performer

Nia Coffey

F · #12

21.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Cecilia Zandalasini

F · #24

15.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 40pp · 4th Quarter · 2:51

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	28	10	5-10	—	—	0	8	4
N. CoffeyF · #12	33	22	7-11	3-4	5-6	+7	6	3
K. McBrideG · #21	34	17	7-12	1-3	2-3	+5	3	2
C. WilliamsG · #10	36	21	6-16	2-2	7-7	+6	12	5
O. MilesG · #5	32	7	1-10	0-4	5-5	+2	5	4
Bench
A. DelaereF · #8	7	0	—	—	—	+6	0	0
A. KosuF · #7	19	4	1-5	—	2-2	+2	6	0
M. CaldwellG · #3	11	0	0-4	—	—	+2	2	0
Team		81	27-68	6-13	21-23		42	18
DNP: L. King, T. McCowan

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	23	3	1-5	1-4	—	-2	6	2
G. WilliamsF · #1	28	15	6-16	2-6	1-2	-10	8	1
C. ZandalasiniF · #24	27	23	7-15	4-10	5-5	-6	4	2
K. StokesC · #41	19	2	1-2	0-1	—	0	6	0
V. BurtonG · #22	24	5	1-8	1-5	2-2	+1	2	5
Bench
L. AmihereF · #3	10	1	0-1	—	1-4	-8	4	0
J. SalaunF · #13	24	15	6-16	3-11	0-2	+1	6	0
T. HayesG · #15	7	2	0-2	—	2-2	+5	1	3
K. CharlesG · #6	21	2	1-5	0-2	—	-5	1	2
K. ChenG · #2	16	7	3-4	1-1	—	-6	0	2
Team		75	26-74	12-40	11-17		38	17
DNP: N. Fingall, J. Jocyte

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

Home

27-68

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

26-74

FG %

6-13

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-40

21-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN leads series 2-0

Jun 5

GS84@

MIN87

Jun 20

MIN81@

GS75today

Aug 20

MIN@

GSupcoming

Aug 25

GS@

MINupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

166.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

5.0pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

MIN-16262%

GS+13642%

10· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -2.5↗SpreadBet MIN -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

166.5

-5.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat GS 81-75. N. Coffey led with 22 PTS, 6 REB, 3 AST. Nia Coffey's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (40pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 95% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 34 REB · 18 AST

GS 66

Bench(3)

4 PTS · 8 REB · 0 AST

GS 2

GSstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

48 PTS · 26 REB · 10 AST

GS 32

Bench(5)

27 PTS · 12 REB · 7 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN1st Quarter · 6:25 · 8-8

+19pp→ 49% WP

Courtney Williams · lost ball turnover (Kayla Thornton steals)

MIN4th Quarter · 2:51 · 75-68

+40pp→ 93% WP

Nia Coffey · makes driving layup (Olivia Miles assists)

GS4th Quarter · 1:09 · 75-70

+16pp→ 23% WP

Natasha Howard · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	16	25	22	18	81
GS	22	24	16	13	75

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · GS won 1

Williams 7

Zandalasini 8

Coffey 14

Kosu 14

McBride 7

Stokes 14

Miles 5

Coffey 6

MIN

Shooting comparison

MIN

40%

27-68

35%

26-74

46%

6-13

3PT

30%

12-40

91%

21-23

65%

11-17

Play-by-play · 413 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 81·GS 75
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 81·GS 75
Q4·0.5
Olivia Miles defensive rebound
MIN 81·GS 75
Q4·4.9
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 27-foot three point jumper
MIN 81·GS 75
−1pp
Q4·11.9
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 81·GS 75
+0.7pp
Q4·11.9
Veronica Burton enters the game for Tiffany Hayes
·
MIN 80·GS 75
Q4·11.9
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 80·GS 75
Q4·11.9
Janelle Salaun personal foul
MIN 79·GS 75
−2pp
Q4·11.9
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu defensive rebound
MIN 79·GS 75
−2pp
Q4·13.8
Olivia Miles blocks Cecilia Zandalasini 's 24-foot three point jumper
·
MIN 79·GS 75
−4pp
Q4·15.9
Golden State Valkyries timeout
MIN 79·GS 75
Q4·15.9
Olivia Miles makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 79·GS 75
+4pp
Q4·15.9
Olivia Miles makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 78·GS 75
−1pp
Q4·15.9
Tiffany Hayes personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 77·GS 75
−12pp
Q4·21.8
Cecilia Zandalasini makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tiffany Hayes assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 77·GS 75
+12pp
Q4·24.2
Tiffany Hayes enters the game for Kaila Charles
·
MIN 77·GS 72
Q4·24.2
Janelle Salaun enters the game for Veronica Burton
·
MIN 77·GS 72
Q4·24.2
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
MIN 77·GS 72
Q4·24.2
Courtney Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
·
MIN 77·GS 72
+2pp
Q4·24.2
Courtney Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
·
MIN 76·GS 72
−0.8pp
Q4·24.2
Veronica Burton personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 75·GS 72
−6pp
Q4·26.0
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 75·GS 72
Q4·26.0
Veronica Burton makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 75·GS 72
−8pp
Q4·26.0
Kaila Charles enters the game for Janelle Salaun
·
MIN 75·GS 71
Q4·26.0
Veronica Burton makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 75·GS 71
+2pp
Q4·26.0
Kayla McBride personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 75·GS 70
+10pp
Q4·26.0
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
MIN 75·GS 70
+3pp
Q4·26.0
Janelle Salaun misses 24-foot running jump shot
MIN 75·GS 70
−3pp
Q4·29.4
Olivia Miles bad pass turnover (Janelle Salaun steals)
·
MIN 75·GS 70
+3pp
Q4·30.7
Lynx timeout
MIN 75·GS 70

Betting line

MIN -2.5·O/U 166.5·MIN -162/GS +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx went into Golden State Valkyries and beat them, 81–75.

MIN -2.5 cashed (won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 166.5 by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

MIN

eFG%

shooting

44.1%

43.2%

TOV%

ball control

14.3%

13.8%

OREB%

offensive glass

32.4%

30.2%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

30.9%

14.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

16.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
38.9%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
35.1%
P(GS win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
36.4%
P(GS win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

1.56 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.15

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-135

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at GS?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+50.5pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best

+200DraftKings

edge +50.5pp · implied 31.4%

no live price

Book	MIN	GS	Best edge
DraftKings	+200★	-270	+50.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

GS vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Olivia MilesMIN
18.9± 8.9medium
Gabby WilliamsGS
17.2± 8.3medium
Natasha HowardMIN
16.8± 6.5medium

Rebounds

Natasha HowardMIN
7.1± 2.5medium
Nia CoffeyMIN
5.9± 1.8medium
Kayla ThorntonGS
5.5± 3.3medium

Assists

Olivia MilesMIN
5.5± 2.8medium
Veronica BurtonGS
5.3± 2.7medium
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.3± 2.0medium

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.6± 1.6medium
Nia CoffeyMIN
1.3± 1.3medium
Veronica BurtonGS
0.9± 1.8medium

Steals

Natasha HowardMIN
1.9± 1.7medium
Kayla McBrideMIN
1.7± 1.2medium
Gabby WilliamsGS
1.5± 0.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

MIN

league avg

50.4%

FG%

◀

44.6

40.6%

40.0%

3PT %

◀

33.4

36.3%

92.3

PPG

◀

85.7

84.4

21.8

Assists / G

◀

18.0

18.9

14.1

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

10.2

Data via ESPN · wehoop