NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4SA

50-18

119115

LAC

34-34

NBAMon, Mar 16FinalSeriesSA leads series 2-0VegasSA -8.5

SA · top performer

Stephon Castle

G · #5

19.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAC · top performer

Jordan Miller

G · #22

22.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ LAC

Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 30.4

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	29	7	3-8	0-3	1-1	-5	8	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	34	21	9-20	2-9	1-3	+7	13	2
D. FoxG · #4	29	18	6-12	0-4	6-6	-2	3	6
D. VassellG · #24	35	20	6-11	4-7	4-4	-2	3	4
S. CastleG · #5	36	23	9-19	1-4	4-6	+5	7	8
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	18	8	3-7	2-5	—	-2	3	2
K. JohnsonF · #3	22	8	4-10	0-1	—	+4	5	0
C. BryantF · #11	21	10	2-4	0-2	6-7	+10	5	1
M. PlumleeC · #45	6	1	—	—	1-2	-6	3	0
J. McLaughlinG · #0	10	3	1-2	1-1	—	+11	2	1
Team		119	43-93	10-36	23-29		52	25
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. CollinsF · #20	26	11	4-8	0-1	3-5	-18	9	4
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	24	10	4-13	2-6	0-1	-10	3	1
B. LopezC · #11	24	3	1-2	1-1	—	-15	1	1
K. DunnG · #8	23	9	3-5	2-3	1-2	-10	2	1
D. GarlandG · #10	32	25	9-21	4-9	3-3	-4	2	10
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	12	0	0-1	0-1	—	-3	3	0
I. JacksonF · #23	17	11	4-5	—	3-4	+10	1	0
J. MillerG · #22	26	22	10-13	1-1	1-1	+3	9	3
B. MathurinG · #9	34	16	5-12	0-4	6-6	-5	4	3
K. SandersG · #4	17	5	2-5	1-2	—	+20	2	2
C. ChristieG · #12	6	3	1-4	0-1	1-2	+12	1	0
Team		115	43-89	11-29	18-24		37	25
DNP: B. Bogdanovic, T. Washington Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

LAC

Home

43-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-89

FG %

10-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-29

23-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA leads series 2-0

Mar 7

LAC112@

SA116

Mar 17

SA119@

LAC115today

Apr 3

SA118@

LAC99

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-34077%

LAC+27027%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -8.5↗SpreadBet SA -8.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat LAC 119-115. S. Castle led with 23 PTS, 7 REB, 8 AST. SA outscored the other side 37-15 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAC vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 34 REB · 21 AST

GS 76

Bench(5)

30 PTS · 18 REB · 4 AST

GS 22

LACstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 17 REB · 17 AST

GS 43

Bench(6)

57 PTS · 20 REB · 8 AST

GS 50

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAC1st Quarter · 7:32 · 3-15

+9pp→ 77% WP

Victor Wembanyama · bad pass turnover (Darius Garland steals)

LAC4th Quarter · 38.7 · 115-111

+7pp→ 11% WP

Darius Garland · makes 26-foot three pointer

SA4th Quarter · 30.4 · 116-111

+12pp→ 97% WP

Devin Vassell · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	29	37	26	27	119
LAC	37	15	30	33	115

Period scoring

SA won 1 · LAC won 3

Fox 6

Garland 10

Wembanyama 11

Castle 22

Castle 6

Barnes 8

Vassell 6

Miller 11

LAC

Shooting comparison

LAC

46%

43-93

48%

43-89

28%

10-36

3PT

38%

11-29

79%

23-29

75%

18-24

Play-by-play · 511 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 119·LAC 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 119·LAC 115
Q4·0.1
Clippers offensive team rebound
SA 119·LAC 115
Q4·0.4
Bennedict Mathurin misses heave jump shot
SA 119·LAC 115
Q4·0.7
Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound
SA 119·LAC 115
−3pp
Q4·3.5
Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 2 of 2
SA 119·LAC 115
+2pp
Q4·3.5
Spurs offensive team rebound
SA 119·LAC 115
+0.7pp
Q4·3.5
Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 1 of 2
SA 119·LAC 115
Q4·3.5
Kobe Sanders personal take foul
SA 119·LAC 115
−1pp
Q4·4.7
Darius Garland makes driving layup
SA 119·LAC 115
Q4·10.0
De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 119·LAC 113
+0.8pp
Q4·10.0
De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 118·LAC 113
Q4·10.0
Jordan Miller personal take foul
SA 117·LAC 113
−4pp
Q4·14.9
Jordan Miller makes layup (Bennedict Mathurin assists)
·
SA 117·LAC 113
+3pp
Q4·14.9
Bennedict Mathurin offensive rebound
SA 117·LAC 111
+0.9pp
Q4·16.9
Victor Wembanyama blocks Darius Garland 's 3-foot two point shot
·
SA 117·LAC 111
−3pp
Q4·30.4
Devin Vassell makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 117·LAC 111
+2pp
Q4·30.4
Devin Vassell makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
SA 116·LAC 111
−12pp
Q4·30.4
John Collins enters the game for Isaiah Jackson
·
SA 115·LAC 111
Q4·30.4
(00:30.4) [Clippers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Clippers] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
SA 115·LAC 111
+7pp
Q4·30.4
Clippers Full timeout
SA 115·LAC 111
+5pp
Q4·30.4
Kobe Sanders personal foul
SA 115·LAC 111
Q4·35.0
Isaiah Jackson personal foulBIG MOMENT
SA 115·LAC 111
−7pp
Q4·38.7
Spurs Full timeout
SA 115·LAC 111
Q4·38.7
Darius Garland makes 26-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
SA 115·LAC 111
+7pp
Q4·44.6
Clippers defensive team rebound
SA 115·LAC 108
+0.5pp
Q4·45.9
Julian Champagnie misses 20-foot two point shot
SA 115·LAC 108
+1pp
Q4·48.1
Julian Champagnie offensive rebound
SA 115·LAC 108
−2pp
Q4·51.4
Victor Wembanyama misses 30-foot three point jumper
SA 115·LAC 108
+1pp
Q4·1:00
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
SA 115·LAC 108
−2pp

Betting line

SA -8.5·O/U 234.5·SA -340/LAC +270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into LA Clippers and beat them, 119–115. Decided by 4.

LAC +8.5 cashed (SA won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 234.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Darius GarlandLAC · G
DRIVES13.896
Brook LopezLAC · C
CONT8.396

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAC vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Kawhi LeonardLAC
25.5± 4.3high
Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Kawhi LeonardLAC
6.5± 1.4high
John CollinsLAC
5.8± 2.5high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high
Isaiah JacksonLAC
1.2± 0.8high

Steals

Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Kawhi LeonardLAC
1.3± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

LAC

55.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.5%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

113.9

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

23.8

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR