NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8LAL

LAL

43-25

10092

HOU

41-26

NBAMon, Mar 16FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasLAL -1.5

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

24.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Amen Thompson

G · #1

17.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 21pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:57

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	33	18	7-13	1-3	3-4	+13	5	5
D. AytonC · #5	27	7	3-6	—	1-2	+11	11	0
M. SmartG · #36	36	11	4-9	3-7	—	+6	0	1
L. DoncicG · #77	40	36	14-27	4-12	4-5	+6	6	4
A. ReavesG · #15	40	15	5-18	0-8	5-5	+11	3	5
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	23	6	3-6	0-2	—	-3	3	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	12	7	1-2	—	5-6	-1	4	0
J. HayesC · #11	12	0	0-1	—	—	-6	0	0
L. KennardG · #10	17	0	0-2	0-2	—	+3	0	2
Team		100	37-84	8-34	18-22		32	17
DNP: J. Vanderbilt, D. Knecht, A. Thiero, K. Bufkin, B. James

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	37	18	8-16	0-3	2-2	-7	5	2
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	40	22	9-17	2-8	2-2	-6	8	0
T. EasonF · #17	33	5	2-11	0-3	1-2	-6	9	3
C. CapelaC · #30	26	9	3-4	—	3-5	-2	8	2
A. ThompsonG · #1	41	19	8-13	0-1	3-4	-6	12	5
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	24	8	3-7	2-5	—	+11	2	4
J. OkogieG · #20	8	0	—	—	—	-11	0	2
R. SheppardG · #15	31	11	5-11	1-6	—	-13	0	3
Team		92	38-79	5-26	11-15		44	21
DNP: J. Green, J. Tate, I. Crawford, A. Holiday

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

37-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-79

FG %

8-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-26

18-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-15

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

LAL win series 4-2

Apr 19

HOU98@

LAL107

Apr 22

HOU94@

LAL101

Apr 25

LAL112@

HOU108

Apr 27

LAL96@

HOU115

Apr 30

HOU99@

LAL93

May 2

LAL98@

HOU78

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL-11854%

HOU-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -1.5↗SpreadBet LAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat HOU 100-92. L. Doncic led the way with 36 points and 6 rebounds. LAL outscored the other side 32-23 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST

GS 68

Bench(4)

13 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST

GS 10

HOUstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 42 REB · 12 AST

GS 50

Bench(3)

19 PTS · 2 REB · 9 AST

GS 17

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOU2nd Quarter · 1:57 · 49-51

+21pp→ 62% WP

Luka Doncic · lost ball turnover (Reed Sheppard steals)

LAL2nd Quarter · 9:20 · 35-31

+17pp→ 56% WP

Jake LaRavia · lost ball turnover (Clint Capela steals)

LAL4th Quarter · 2:00 · 94-90

+15pp→ 77% WP

Marcus Smart · makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	29	22	32	17	100
HOU	28	29	23	12	92

Period scoring

LAL won 3 · HOU won 1

Doncic 16

Durant 8

Reaves 6

Doncic 42

Doncic 11

Thompson 8

James 6

Jr. 5

LAL

HOU

Shooting comparison

LAL

HOU

44%

37-84

48%

38-79

24%

8-34

3PT

19%

5-26

82%

18-22

73%

11-15

Play-by-play · 451 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 100·HOU 92
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 100·HOU 92
Q4·5.7
shot clock turnover
LAL 100·HOU 92
Q4·29.8
Kevin Durant makes driving layup
LAL 100·HOU 92
Q4·39.9
LeBron James makes 2-foot running dunk (Austin Reaves assists)
· ·
LAL 100·HOU 90
Q4·42.0
Tari Eason bad pass turnover (Austin Reaves steals)
·
LAL 98·HOU 90
−1pp
Q4·43.4
Clint Capela enters the game for Amen Thompson
·
LAL 98·HOU 90
Q4·43.4
Rockets Full timeout
LAL 98·HOU 90
Q4·43.4
Deandre Ayton makes 5-foot two point shot (Marcus Smart assists)
·
LAL 98·HOU 90
−2pp
Q4·55.4
Deandre Ayton defensive rebound
LAL 96·HOU 90
−1pp
Q4·56.6
Tari Eason misses driving floating jump shot
LAL 96·HOU 90
−4pp
Q4·1:15
Deandre Ayton makes dunk
LAL 96·HOU 90
−5pp
Q4·1:15
Deandre Ayton offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LAL 94·HOU 90
−5pp
Q4·1:16
Jabari Smith Jr. blocks LeBron James 's 3-foot driving layup
· ·
LAL 94·HOU 90
+4pp
Q4·1:33
Luka Doncic defensive rebound
LAL 94·HOU 90
−2pp
Q4·1:37
Reed Sheppard misses 22-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LAL 94·HOU 90
−5pp
Q4·1:39
Rockets offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LAL 94·HOU 90
+5pp
Q4·1:39
Tari Eason misses 21-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
LAL 94·HOU 90
−6pp
Q4·2:00
Marcus Smart makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
LAL 94·HOU 90
−15pp
Q4·2:13
Amen Thompson personal foul
LAL 91·HOU 90
−3pp
Q4·2:22
Amen Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAL 91·HOU 90
−7pp
Q4·2:22
Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 91·HOU 89
+2pp
Q4·2:22
Marcus Smart personal foulBIG MOMENT
LAL 91·HOU 88
+13pp
Q4·2:38
Luka Doncic makes 6-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
LAL 91·HOU 88
−8pp
Q4·2:45
LeBron James enters the game for Rui Hachimura
· ·
LAL 89·HOU 88
Q4·2:45
Lakers offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LAL 89·HOU 88
−7pp
Q4·2:46
Austin Reaves misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LAL 89·HOU 88
+7pp
Q4·2:47
Deandre Ayton offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LAL 89·HOU 88
−7pp
Q4·2:49
Luka Doncic misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
LAL 89·HOU 88
+6pp
Q4·2:58
Rui Hachimura defensive rebound
LAL 89·HOU 88
−2pp

Betting line

LAL -1.5·O/U 223.5·LAL -118/HOU -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers went into Houston Rockets and beat them, 100–92.

LAL -1.5 cashed (won by 8). Total stayed UNDER 223.5 by 31.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Jaxson HayesLAL · C
TS%75.899+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

HOU

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.4%

114.8

PPG

114.9

114.1

25.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

14.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR