NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5SAC

UTAH

20-48

111116

SAC

18-51

NBASun, Mar 15FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasSAC -3.5

UTAH · top performer

Cody Williams

F · #5

28.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

DeMar DeRozan

G · #10

36.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 26pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:22

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. WilliamsF · #5	38	34	12-20	3-7	7-8	-8	7	7
B. SensabaughF · #28	23	22	9-17	3-9	1-2	-5	3	0
E. HarklessG · #16	40	13	4-10	2-7	3-3	+1	1	4
I. CollierG · #8	25	21	9-21	1-3	2-4	-15	5	3
A. GarciaG · #0	43	3	1-7	1-6	—	-3	11	3
Bench
B. HinsonF · #2	16	7	2-4	2-3	1-2	+1	2	1
M. BambaC · #11	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
O. TshiebweC · #34	23	9	3-5	—	3-6	+5	8	1
B. MbengG · #21	33	2	1-2	0-1	—	-1	3	3
Team		111	41-86	12-36	17-25		40	22
DNP: K. Love, K. Filipowski, S. Mykhailiuk, J. Konchar

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	33	20	10-15	0-2	—	+10	11	1
M. RaynaudC · #42	29	8	4-8	0-1	—	+3	12	1
D. DeRozanG · #10	38	41	11-21	1-3	18-21	+16	4	11
K. HayesG · #3	38	16	5-9	4-6	2-2	+9	5	8
N. CliffordG · #5	26	10	4-9	1-5	1-1	-3	4	2
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	29	9	3-8	3-8	—	-7	3	2
D. CardwellC · #32	16	2	1-1	—	0-2	+5	7	1
D. PlowdenG · #29	31	10	3-14	2-11	2-2	-8	4	2
Team		116	41-85	11-36	23-28		50	28
DNP: D. Eubanks, K. Murray, M. Monk, D. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

41-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-85

FG %

12-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-36

17-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Oct 25

UTAH104@

SAC105

Nov 29

SAC119@

UTAH128

Feb 12

SAC93@

UTAH121

Mar 16

UTAH111@

SAC116today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SAC -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+13642%

SAC-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SAC -3.5↗SpreadBet SAC -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SAC beat UTAH 116-111. D. DeRozan led the way with 41 points and 11 assists. Precious Achiuwa's play in the 2nd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 27 REB · 17 AST

GS 67

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST

GS 22

SACstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

95 PTS · 36 REB · 23 AST

GS 82

Bench(3)

21 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC2nd Quarter · 0.3 · 49-54

+26pp→ 69% WP

Cody Williams · misses heave jump shot

SAC3rd Quarter · 12:00 · 49-54

+22pp→ 68% WP

Maxime Raynaud · enters the game for Daeqwon Plowden

UTAH2nd Quarter · 3:22 · 43-39

+26pp→ 63% WP

Precious Achiuwa · misses 3-foot tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	28	21	39	23	111
SAC	26	28	35	27	116

Period scoring

UTAH won 2 · SAC won 2

Williams 14

Collier 11

Tshiebwe 6

Williams 15

Collier 11

Raynaud 19

Williams 13

DeRozan 15

UTAH

SAC

Shooting comparison

UTAH

SAC

48%

41-86

48%

41-85

33%

12-36

3PT

31%

11-36

68%

17-25

82%

23-28

Play-by-play · 462 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 111·SAC 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 111·SAC 116
+0.6pp
Q4·3.8
Killian Hayes defensive rebound
UTAH 111·SAC 116
+0.7pp
Q4·6.1
Cody Williams misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
UTAH 111·SAC 116
+3pp
Q4·11.7
Andersson Garcia defensive rebound
UTAH 111·SAC 116
+0.9pp
Q4·14.9
DeMar DeRozan misses free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 111·SAC 116
−4pp
Q4·14.9
DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 111·SAC 116
Q4·14.9
Bez Mbeng personal take foul
UTAH 111·SAC 115
+4pp
Q4·15.8
Kings offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 111·SAC 115
+5pp
Q4·18.4
Maxime Raynaud misses 24-foot three point jumper
UTAH 111·SAC 115
−2pp
Q4·30.2
Daeqwon Plowden offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 111·SAC 115
+5pp
Q4·32.0
DeMar DeRozan misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
UTAH 111·SAC 115
−3pp
Q4·51.7
DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound
UTAH 111·SAC 115
+2pp
Q4·55.4
Elijah Harkless misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 111·SAC 115
+6pp
Q4·1:16
Precious Achiuwa makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)BIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 111·SAC 115
+7pp
Q4·1:36
Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
UTAH 111·SAC 113
+3pp
Q4·1:39
Cody Williams misses 22-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
UTAH 111·SAC 113
+8pp
Q4·1:47
DeMar DeRozan lost ball turnover (Bez Mbeng steals)BIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 111·SAC 113
−9pp
Q4·2:01
Precious Achiuwa defensive goaltending violation
UTAH 111·SAC 113
Q4·2:01
Cody Williams makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
UTAH 111·SAC 113
−6pp
Q4·2:18
Oscar Tshiebwe defensive rebound
UTAH 109·SAC 113
Q4·2:21
DeMar DeRozan misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
UTAH 109·SAC 113
−10pp
Q4·2:21
DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 109·SAC 113
+1pp
Q4·2:21
Bez Mbeng personal foulBIG MOMENT
UTAH 109·SAC 112
+9pp
Q4·2:29
Elijah Harkless bad pass turnover (Precious Achiuwa steals)BIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 109·SAC 112
+7pp
Q4·2:33
Bez Mbeng defensive rebound
UTAH 109·SAC 112
−2pp
Q4·2:37
DeMar DeRozan misses 12-foot fade away jump shot
UTAH 109·SAC 112
−5pp
Q4·2:56
Cody Williams makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
UTAH 109·SAC 112
+5pp
Q4·2:56
Cody Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 108·SAC 112
−2pp
Q4·2:56
Daeqwon Plowden shooting foulBIG MOMENT
UTAH 107·SAC 112
−9pp

Betting line

SAC -3.5·O/U 230.5·UTAH +136/SAC -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

acramento Kings held off Utah Jazz, 116–111. Decided by 5.

SAC -3.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 230.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Blake HinsonUTAH · F
TS%68.497
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Isaiah CollierUTAH · G
DRIVES11.592
Dylan CardwellSAC · C
CONT6.891
Elijah HarklessUTAH · G
DEFL2.688

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs UTAH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
20.7± 4.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Walker KesslerUTAH
10.7± 2.2low
Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high

Assists

Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium
Jusuf NurkicUTAH
5.5± 4.5high

Blocks

Walker KesslerUTAH
1.8± 2.5low
Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
Elijah HarklessUTAH
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

SAC

53.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

46.7%

117.6

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.5

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR