NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6PHI

POR

32-36

103109

PHI

37-31

NBASun, Mar 15FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPOR -8.5

POR · top performer

Donovan Clingan

C · #23

17.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Quentin Grimes

G · #5

24.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 29pp · 4th Quarter · 11:03

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. GrantF · #9	32	20	7-13	6-11	0-2	-8	2	1
T. CamaraF · #33	31	7	3-10	1-7	—	-11	2	5
D. AvdijaF · #8	38	25	7-19	2-12	9-11	+2	6	9
D. ClinganC · #23	28	11	4-10	0-3	3-3	-12	15	5
J. HolidayG · #5	24	5	2-9	1-6	—	-23	5	2
Bench
R. Williams IIIC · #35	20	6	3-5	—	—	+6	12	0
M. ThybulleG · #4	15	5	2-4	1-3	—	+3	3	2
V. KrejciG · #27	13	9	3-6	3-5	—	+2	1	0
S. HendersonG · #00	24	11	4-14	2-5	1-3	+6	3	2
S. CissokoG · #91	15	4	1-2	1-1	1-2	+5	0	0
Team		103	36-92	17-53	14-21		49	26
DNP: K. Murray, D. Lillard, B. Wesley, S. Sharpe

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. EdwardsF · #11	25	21	9-14	3-5	—	+4	2	2
D. BarlowF · #25	21	11	4-6	1-2	2-2	+14	3	2
A. BonaC · #30	13	2	1-5	—	—	-8	6	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	40	31	11-22	1-4	8-8	+7	3	2
V. EdgecombeG · #77	35	18	8-18	1-5	1-1	+10	12	3
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	27	7	3-7	0-2	1-2	-8	2	3
M. BeauchampF · #16	14	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	+1	2	0
A. DrummondC · #1	35	6	3-9	0-1	—	+14	17	4
C. PaynePG · #20	20	11	5-12	1-3	—	-5	2	1
K. LowryG · #7	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	0	0
T. MartinG · #23	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	2	0
Team		109	44-97	7-25	14-15		51	17

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

36-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-97

FG %

17-53

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-25

14-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 10

PHI118@

POR135

Mar 15

POR103@

PHI109today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

POR -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR-34077%

PHI+27027%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet POR -8.5↗SpreadBet POR -8.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat POR 109-103. Q. Grimes paced them with 31 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST. Andre Drummond's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 30 REB · 22 AST

GS 48

Bench(5)

35 PTS · 19 REB · 4 AST

GS 30

PHIstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 26 REB · 9 AST

GS 69

Bench(6)

26 PTS · 25 REB · 8 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR4th Quarter · 11:03 · 79-82

+29pp→ 37% WP

Andre Drummond · misses 1-foot tip shot

POR4th Quarter · 2:54 · 97-101

+14pp→ 30% WP

Trendon Watford · shooting foul

POR4th Quarter · 2:15 · 97-101

+11pp→ 34% WP

VJ Edgecombe · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	27	27	22	27	103
PHI	30	23	29	27	109

Period scoring

POR won 1 · PHI won 2

Grant 6

Edwards 8

Avdija 8

Grimes 7

Grant 11

Edwards 9

Avdija 13

Grimes 27

POR

PHI

Shooting comparison

POR

PHI

39%

36-92

45%

44-97

32%

17-53

3PT

28%

7-25

67%

14-21

93%

14-15

Play-by-play · 492 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 103·PHI 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 103·PHI 109
+0.5pp
Q4·10.1
Dominick Barlow defensive rebound
POR 103·PHI 109
Q4·11.6
Deni Avdija misses 23-foot fade away jump shot
POR 103·PHI 109
+3pp
Q4·21.1
Adem Bona enters the game for Trendon Watford
·
POR 103·PHI 109
Q4·21.1
Dominick Barlow enters the game for Andre Drummond
·
POR 103·PHI 109
Q4·21.1
Scoot Henderson enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
POR 103·PHI 109
Q4·21.1
Trail Blazers Full timeout
POR 103·PHI 109
Q4·21.1
Quentin Grimes makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 103·PHI 109
−2pp
Q4·21.1
Donovan Clingan enters the game for Scoot Henderson
·
POR 103·PHI 108
Q4·21.1
Quentin Grimes makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 103·PHI 108
+0.6pp
Q4·21.1
Jerami Grant personal take foul
POR 103·PHI 107
+5pp
Q4·23.8
Robert Williams III makes two point shot
POR 103·PHI 107
−3pp
Q4·23.8
Robert Williams III offensive rebound
POR 101·PHI 107
−1pp
Q4·26.7
Deni Avdija misses 25-foot running jump shot
POR 101·PHI 107
+3pp
Q4·32.2
Justin Edwards lost ball turnover (Scoot Henderson steals)
·
POR 101·PHI 107
−2pp
Q4·39.7
Deni Avdija lost ball turnover (Trendon Watford steals)
·
POR 101·PHI 107
+3pp
Q4·43.8
VJ Edgecombe makes 19-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
POR 101·PHI 107
+6pp
Q4·1:07
Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
POR 101·PHI 105
+5pp
Q4·1:07
Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 100·PHI 105
−2pp
Q4·1:07
Andre Drummond shooting foulBIG MOMENT
POR 99·PHI 105
−8pp
Q4·1:20
Justin Edwards makes 2-foot driving dunk
POR 99·PHI 105
+5pp
Q4·1:22
Toumani Camara bad pass turnover (Justin Edwards steals)BIG MOMENT
·
POR 99·PHI 103
+7pp
Q4·1:24
Robert Williams III defensive rebound
POR 99·PHI 103
−2pp
Q4·1:26
Robert Williams III blocks Andre Drummond 's 9-foot driving floating jump shot
·
POR 99·PHI 103
−4pp
Q4·1:46
Deni Avdija makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot
POR 99·PHI 103
−4pp
Q4·1:53
VJ Edgecombe makes 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
POR 97·PHI 103
+6pp
Q4·2:13
Andre Drummond defensive rebound
POR 97·PHI 101
Q4·2:15
Jerami Grant misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
POR 97·PHI 101
+6pp
Q4·2:15
Trail Blazers offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
POR 97·PHI 101
+5pp

Betting line

POR -8.5·O/U 228.5·POR -340/PHI +270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers held off Portland Trail Blazers, 109–103.

PHI +8.5 cashed (POR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 228.5 by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
Donovan ClinganPOR · C
CONT7.694
VJ EdgecombePHI · G
TOUCHES66.190

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
7.4± 1.6high

Assists

Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high
Damian LillardPOR
6.1± 3.2high

Blocks

Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Paul GeorgePHI
1.5± 1.1high
Toumani CamaraPOR
1.4± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

POR

league avg

PHI

53.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.9%

45.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.0%

114.6

PPG

114.9

114.3

25.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

16.2

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR