IND
15-53
MIL
28-39
IND · top performer
Aaron Nesmith
G · #23
32
Pts
2
Reb
1
Ast
MIL · top performer
Giannis Antetokounmpo
F · #34
31
Pts
14
Reb
8
Ast
Biggest swing: 26pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:17
NBA · Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 27 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | — | -4 | 4 | 0 | |
| 30 | 14 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 0-2 | -17 | 8 | 6 | |
| 24 | 10 | 4-10 | — | 2-2 | +1 | 7 | 2 | |
| 28 | 9 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 3-3 | -8 | 2 | 11 | |
| 29 | 32 | 10-14 | 7-10 | 5-5 | -7 | 2 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 16 | 11 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 2-3 | +2 | 4 | 3 | |
| 20 | 16 | 5-8 | 3-6 | 3-3 | -15 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | +3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 25 | 9 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 1-2 | -11 | 6 | 5 | |
| 15 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 | — | +1 | 3 | 2 | |
| 10 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | +2 | 2 | 3 | |
| 13 | 9 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 2-3 | -2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 123 | 42-81 | 21-42 | 18-23 | 40 | 34 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 23 | 31 | 11-22 | — | 9-13 | +17 | 14 | 8 | |
| 36 | 8 | 3-7 | 2-6 | — | -1 | 3 | 8 | |
| 30 | 13 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 2-2 | +6 | 4 | 0 | |
| 24 | 12 | 4-7 | 4-7 | — | +8 | 2 | 1 | |
| 37 | 20 | 8-12 | 3-5 | 1-2 | +14 | 2 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 22 | 13 | 5-7 | 3-5 | — | +13 | 2 | 2 | |
| 27 | 29 | 11-21 | 6-11 | 1-2 | -4 | 10 | 3 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 2 | 1-3 | — | — | +1 | 3 | 1 | |
| 22 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | — | -2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 134 | 49-90 | 23-44 | 13-19 | 40 | 31 | ||
| DNP: G. Trent Jr., C. Thomas | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
52
FG %
54
34
Ast
31
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
MIL
Home
42-81
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
49-90
52
FG %
54
21-42
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
23-44
18-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-19
34
Assists
31
18
Turnovers
9
Season series
MIL wins series 4-0
MIL117@IND115MIL111@IND94IND99@MIL105IND123@MIL134todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIL -7.5
Half-pt above key 7
Total
227.5
Standard · +1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
IND+24029%MIL-29875%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
7.5
0.0 since open
Total
227.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIL beat IND 134-123. G. Antetokounmpo paced them with 31 PTS, 14 REB, 8 AST. MIL outscored the other side 40-31 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIL vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 55% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 23 REB · 20 AST
GS 59
Bench(7)
55 PTS · 17 REB · 14 AST
GS 47
MILstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
84 PTS · 25 REB · 24 AST
GS 79
Bench(7)
50 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST
GS 43
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactObi Toppin · makes 24-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)
Obi Toppin la · ne violation
Jarace Walker · misses 22-foot pullup jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 34 | 31 | 31 | 27 | 123 |
| MIL | 26 | 36 | 40 | 32 | 134 |
Period scoring
IND won 1 · MIL won 3
Q1
Nesmith 14
Antetokounmpo 7
Q2
Nesmith 10
Antetokounmpo 13
Q3
Walker 14
Antetokounmpo 18
Q4
Brown 9
Walker 17
Shooting comparison
52%
42-81
FG
54%
49-90
50%
21-42
3PT
52%
23-44
78%
18-23
FT
68%
13-19
Play-by-play · 449 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 123·MIL 134
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 123·MIL 134
- Q4·20.3
Ryan Rollins makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 123·MIL 134
+0.6pp
- Q4·42.7
Kobe Brown makes driving layup
IND 123·MIL 131
+1pp
- Q4·57.3
Thanasis Antetokounmpo enters the game for Kyle Kuzma
· ·
IND 121·MIL 131
- Q4·57.3
Pete Nance enters the game for Bobby Portis
·
IND 121·MIL 131
- Q4·57.3
Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Myles Turner
· ·
IND 121·MIL 131
- Q4·57.3
Bobby Portis personal foul
IND 121·MIL 131
−1pp
- Q4·1:00
Myles Turner bad pass turnover (Kam Jones steals)
·
IND 121·MIL 131
- Q4·1:20
Taelon Peter makes 2-foot running dunk (Kam Jones assists)
·
IND 121·MIL 131
- Q4·1:22
Ryan Rollins lost ball turnover (Jalen Slawson steals)
·
IND 119·MIL 131
- Q4·1:40
Taelon Peter makes running layup (Kam Jones assists)
·
IND 119·MIL 131
- Q4·1:40
Kam Jones defensive rebound
IND 117·MIL 131
- Q4·1:44
Bobby Portis misses 23-foot pullup jump shot
IND 117·MIL 131
- Q4·1:54
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
IND 117·MIL 131
- Q4·1:54
Taelon Peter misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 117·MIL 131
- Q4·2:07
Bobby Portis makes tip shot
IND 117·MIL 131
- Q4·2:07
Bobby Portis offensive rebound
IND 117·MIL 129
- Q4·2:13
Bobby Portis misses alley oop layup
IND 117·MIL 129
- Q4·2:20
Bobby Portis offensive rebound
IND 117·MIL 129
- Q4·2:23
Myles Turner misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 117·MIL 129
- Q4·2:40
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
IND 117·MIL 129
- Q4·2:44
Jay Huff misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 117·MIL 129
- Q4·2:53
Jalen Slawson defensive rebound
IND 117·MIL 129
- Q4·2:56
Bobby Portis misses 16-foot jumper
IND 117·MIL 129
- Q4·3:10
Jay Huff makes 3-foot two point shot (Kobe Brown assists)
·
IND 117·MIL 129
- Q4·3:23
Jay Huff defensive rebound
IND 115·MIL 129
- Q4·3:27
Kyle Kuzma misses running pullup jump shot
IND 115·MIL 129
- Q4·3:30
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
IND 115·MIL 129
- Q4·3:33
Kam Jones misses driving layup
IND 115·MIL 129
Betting line
MIL -7.5·O/U 227.5·IND +240/MIL -298
Recap · NBA
ilwaukee Bucks held off Indiana Pacers, 134–123.
MIL -7.5 cashed (won by 11). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 29.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · FUSG%36.699+
Ryan RollinsMIL · GDEFL4.098
Ivica ZubacIND · CCONT9.298
Jay HuffIND · CCONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · CTS%67.996
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIL vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Pascal SiakamIND23.8± 7.9high
- Ryan RollinsMIL19.5± 7.1high
- Tyler HerroMIL19.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Ivica ZubacIND9.5± 4.1high
- Micah PotterIND6.1± 4.5high
- Pascal SiakamIND6.1± 2.4high
Assists
- Andrew NembhardIND8.5± 4.7high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND8.1± 4.3high
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL6.9± 2.8high
Blocks
- Jay HuffIND1.9± 1.9high
- Jalen SlawsonIND1.0± 1.4medium
- Ivica ZubacIND0.7± 0.7high
Steals
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL2.1± 1.4high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND1.6± 1.3high
- Jalen SlawsonIND1.5± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
IND
league avg
MIL
53.3%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶56.5%
45.8%
FG%
47.0
▶47.7%
112.4
PPG
114.9
110.6
27.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.8
13.8
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.5