NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11TOR

DET

48-19

108119

TOR

38-29

NBASun, Mar 15FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDET -3.5

DET · top performer

Cade Cunningham

G · #2

24.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Jakob Poeltl

C · #19

27.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDET ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 16pp · 1st Quarter · 2:25

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	33	21	9-12	3-3	—	-2	5	2
D. RobinsonF · #55	24	1	0-2	0-2	1-2	+2	3	3
J. DurenC · #0	37	20	8-11	—	4-7	-7	11	0
C. CunninghamG · #2	37	33	12-24	2-8	7-8	-13	3	9
A. ThompsonG · #9	24	4	2-8	—	0-2	-9	1	3
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	11	4	2-4	—	—	-4	6	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	13	2	1-4	0-1	—	-10	2	1
J. GreenG · #31	15	8	2-3	1-2	3-3	-4	3	1
C. LeVertG · #8	20	9	3-8	2-4	1-2	-8	3	1
K. HuerterG · #27	14	3	1-3	1-3	—	-2	1	1
M. SasserG · #25	12	3	1-6	1-3	—	+2	1	2
Team		108	41-85	10-26	16-24		39	23
DNP: T. Smith, D. Jenkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	39	34	12-25	4-9	6-8	+14	1	0
R. BarrettF · #9	39	27	11-17	1-4	4-4	+3	6	2
S. BarnesF · #4	38	14	5-11	0-1	4-5	+22	10	8
J. PoeltlC · #19	36	21	9-12	—	3-5	+2	18	5
I. QuickleyG · #5	34	6	1-12	1-6	3-4	+14	1	7
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	15	8	3-7	1-4	1-2	+8	5	0
J. MogboF · #2	3	2	1-1	—	—	+2	3	0
J. SheadG · #23	24	4	1-4	0-2	2-2	-2	2	3
J. WalterG · #14	12	3	1-2	1-2	—	-8	2	0
Team		119	44-91	8-28	23-30		48	25
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Battle, G. Temple, A.J. Lawson, A. Martin, G. Dick

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

41-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-91

FG %

10-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-28

16-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 12

DET113@

TOR95

Mar 15

DET108@

TOR119today

Apr 1

TOR116@

DET127

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-15561%

TOR+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -3.5↗SpreadBet DET -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat DET 119-108. J. Poeltl led with 21 PTS, 18 REB, 5 AST. TOR outscored the other side 34-17 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 23 REB · 17 AST

GS 60

Bench(6)

29 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST

GS 21

TORstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

102 PTS · 36 REB · 22 AST

GS 89

Bench(4)

17 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET1st Quarter · 2:25 · 27-25

+16pp→ 69% WP

Sandro Mamukelashvili · lost ball turnover (Caris LeVert steals)

DET3rd Quarter · 2:43 · 77-86

+9pp→ 18% WP

Paul Reed · lost ball turnover (Ja'Kobe Walter steals)

TOR4th Quarter · 3:34 · 99-104

+16pp→ 84% WP

Cade Cunningham · offensive foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	32	32	17	27	108
TOR	33	26	34	26	119

Period scoring

DET won 2 · TOR won 2

Duren 10

Ingram 13

Cunningham 8

Poeltl 7

Cunningham 9

Ingram 11

Harris 8

Ingram 8

DET

TOR

Shooting comparison

DET

TOR

48%

41-85

48%

44-91

38%

10-26

3PT

29%

8-28

67%

16-24

77%

23-30

Play-by-play · 495 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 108·TOR 119
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 108·TOR 119
Q4·0.1
Brandon Ingram lost ball turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)
·
DET 108·TOR 119
Q4·0.6
Cade Cunningham bad pass turnover (Scottie Barnes steals)
·
DET 108·TOR 119
Q4·7.7
RJ Barrett makes dunk (Scottie Barnes assists)
·
DET 108·TOR 119
Q4·12.1
Jalen Duren makes dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)
·
DET 108·TOR 117
Q4·17.6
Jakob Poeltl makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 106·TOR 117
Q4·17.6
Raptors offensive team rebound
DET 106·TOR 116
Q4·17.6
Jakob Poeltl misses free throw 1 of 2
DET 106·TOR 116
Q4·17.6
Cade Cunningham personal foul
DET 106·TOR 116
Q4·20.4
Jakob Poeltl defensive rebound
DET 106·TOR 116
Q4·23.0
Javonte Green misses 26-foot three point jumper
DET 106·TOR 116
Q4·32.2
Brandon Ingram makes 24-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)
·
DET 106·TOR 116
+2pp
Q4·51.1
Jakob Poeltl defensive rebound
DET 106·TOR 113
+0.7pp
Q4·54.1
Cade Cunningham misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
DET 106·TOR 113
+2pp
Q4·1:02
RJ Barrett makes 15-foot step back jumpshot
DET 106·TOR 113
+4pp
Q4·1:19
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 106·TOR 111
+4pp
Q4·1:19
Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 105·TOR 111
Q4·1:19
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 105·TOR 111
−1pp
Q4·1:19
RJ Barrett personal foulBIG MOMENT
DET 104·TOR 111
−6pp
Q4·1:22
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
DET 104·TOR 111
−0.5pp
Q4·1:25
Immanuel Quickley misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
DET 104·TOR 111
−1pp
Q4·1:42
RJ Barrett defensive rebound
DET 104·TOR 111
+0.8pp
Q4·1:45
Cade Cunningham misses running pullup jump shot
DET 104·TOR 111
+2pp
Q4·1:50
Tobias Harris defensive rebound
DET 104·TOR 111
Q4·1:52
Brandon Ingram misses free throw 1 of 1
DET 104·TOR 111
−4pp
Q4·1:52
Duncan Robinson shooting foul
DET 104·TOR 111
+4pp
Q4·1:52
Brandon Ingram makes 19-foot pullup jump shot
DET 104·TOR 111
+4pp
Q4·2:18
Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DET 104·TOR 109
−6pp
Q4·2:30
Jakob Poeltl makes tip shot
DET 101·TOR 109
+3pp

Betting line

DET -3.5·O/U 224.5·DET -155/TOR +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors held off Detroit Pistons, 119–108.

TOR +3.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 224.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

TOR

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

54.5%

48.0%

FG%

47.0

48.1%

115.9

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR