NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10DAL

DAL

23-45

130120

CLE

41-27

NBASun, Mar 15FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCLE -14.5

DAL · top performer

Naji Marshall

F · #13

24.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Max Strus

G · #2

21.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 9:50

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	33	20	8-16	3-4	1-2	+17	11	2
N. MarshallF · #13	32	25	8-12	1-1	8-8	+10	5	7
C. FlaggF · #32	33	27	10-17	1-3	6-8	+2	6	10
M. ChristieG · #00	29	9	3-4	2-3	1-1	+4	2	5
R. NembhardG · #9	24	11	4-10	3-7	—	+15	3	3
Bench
K. MiddletonF · #20	24	5	2-9	1-4	—	+2	5	2
D. PowellF · #7	2	0	—	—	—	+1	1	1
C. MartinF · #16	8	5	1-2	1-1	2-2	-4	1	0
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	16	6	2-4	1-2	1-2	-2	5	0
B. WilliamsG · #10	24	12	4-7	0-1	4-4	-5	2	5
J. PoulakidasG · #1	15	10	4-6	2-4	—	+10	3	0
Team		130	46-87	15-30	23-27		44	35
DNP: A. Johnson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	26	12	5-9	2-5	—	-12	5	0
E. MobleyC · #4	36	18	8-14	0-3	2-5	-2	11	4
J. HardenG · #1	38	13	4-12	1-5	4-5	-5	5	7
D. MitchellG · #45	39	26	10-24	4-11	2-2	-4	1	11
K. EllisG · #14	31	5	2-7	1-5	—	-2	5	3
Bench
N. TomlinF · #35	12	4	2-4	0-2	—	-9	0	0
T. BryantC · #3	12	10	3-4	2-3	2-4	-7	2	0
D. SchroderG · #8	22	8	4-5	—	0-1	-9	1	6
M. StrusG · #2	23	24	7-9	6-7	4-4	0	8	1
Team		120	45-88	16-41	14-21		38	32
DNP: L. Nance Jr., O. Sarr, T. Enaruna, R. Minix

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

46-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-88

FG %

15-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-41

23-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 13

CLE138@

DAL105

Mar 15

DAL130@

CLE120today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+75012%

CLE-120092%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -14.5↗SpreadBet CLE -14.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat CLE 130-120. N. Marshall paced them with 25 PTS, 5 REB, 7 AST. DAL outscored the other side 40-27 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

92 PTS · 27 REB · 27 AST

GS 95

Bench(6)

38 PTS · 17 REB · 8 AST

GS 29

CLEstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 27 REB · 25 AST

GS 55

Bench(4)

46 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST

GS 40

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL3rd Quarter · 6:10 · 81-72

+9pp→ 63% WP

Cooper Flagg · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)

CLE3rd Quarter · 3:31 · 86-79

+8pp→ 37% WP

Thomas Bryant · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)

DAL3rd Quarter · 1:46 · 91-81

+9pp→ 75% WP

John Poulakidas · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	35	25	40	30	130
CLE	31	28	27	34	120

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · CLE won 2

Washington 9

Mitchell 9

Marshall 9

Mobley 13

Poulakidas 8

Wade 17

Flagg 12

Harden 9

DAL

CLE

Shooting comparison

DAL

CLE

53%

46-87

51%

45-88

50%

15-30

3PT

39%

16-41

85%

23-27

67%

14-21

Play-by-play · 471 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 130·CLE 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 130·CLE 120
Q4·15.7
shot clock turnover
DAL 130·CLE 120
Q4·39.7
Mavericks defensive team rebound
DAL 130·CLE 120
Q4·40.5
James Harden misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 130·CLE 120
Q4·47.5
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
DAL 130·CLE 120
Q4·49.8
Cooper Flagg misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 130·CLE 120
Q4·1:11
Donovan Mitchell makes 1-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)
·
DAL 130·CLE 120
Q4·1:19
Cooper Flagg makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 130·CLE 118
Q4·1:19
Mavericks offensive team rebound
DAL 129·CLE 118
Q4·1:19
Cooper Flagg misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 129·CLE 118
Q4·1:19
Max Strus personal foul
DAL 129·CLE 118
Q4·1:20
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
DAL 129·CLE 118
Q4·1:22
Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 129·CLE 118
Q4·1:34
Cooper Flagg makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot
DAL 129·CLE 118
−0.8pp
Q4·1:44
Evan Mobley makes alley oop dunk (Donovan Mitchell assists)
·
DAL 127·CLE 118
+0.6pp
Q4·1:49
James Harden defensive rebound
DAL 127·CLE 116
Q4·1:52
Evan Mobley blocks Brandon Williams 's 6-foot driving layup
·
DAL 127·CLE 116
Q4·2:14
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 127·CLE 116
−0.5pp
Q4·2:14
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 127·CLE 115
Q4·2:14
Cooper Flagg shooting foul
DAL 127·CLE 114
+0.6pp
Q4·2:21
Max Christie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)
·
DAL 127·CLE 114
−1pp
Q4·2:30
James Harden makes free throw 3 of 3
DAL 124·CLE 114
−0.9pp
Q4·2:30
Max Strus enters the game for Dean Wade
·
DAL 124·CLE 113
Q4·2:30
James Harden makes free throw 2 of 3
DAL 124·CLE 113
+1pp
Q4·2:30
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 3
DAL 124·CLE 112
Q4·2:30
Brandon Williams shooting foul
DAL 124·CLE 111
+0.7pp
Q4·2:40
Max Christie makes alley oop dunk (Brandon Williams assists)
·
DAL 124·CLE 111
−0.6pp
Q4·2:52
Keon Ellis makes 23-foot running jump shot (Evan Mobley assists)
·
DAL 122·CLE 111
+0.7pp
Q4·2:58
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
DAL 122·CLE 108

Betting line

CLE -14.5·O/U 233.5·DAL +750/CLE -1200

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

allas Mavericks went into Cleveland Cavaliers and beat them, 130–120.

DAL +14.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894
James HardenCLE · G
DRIVES12.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

CLE

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

117.4

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.1

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR