MIN
41-27
OKC
53-15
MIN · top performer
Julius Randle
F · #30
32
Pts
7
Reb
6
Ast
OKC · top performer
Chet Holmgren
C · #7
21
Pts
9
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 10:37
NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 32 | 11-18 | 3-5 | 7-8 | -5 | 7 | 6 | |
| 16 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | -17 | 1 | 1 | |
| 29 | 2 | 1-4 | — | — | -23 | 7 | 2 | |
| 30 | 16 | 6-9 | 4-7 | — | -7 | 9 | 1 | |
| 37 | 19 | 6-17 | 2-5 | 5-10 | -7 | 6 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | +3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 12 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -2 | 5 | 0 | |
| 28 | 6 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 4-4 | -4 | 4 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1-3 | — | — | +3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 33 | 18 | 7-9 | 4-5 | — | -3 | 4 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | — | +3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-4 | — | -9 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team | 103 | 36-77 | 15-33 | 16-22 | 46 | 18 | ||
| DNP: M. Conley | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 21 | 0 | 0-3 | — | — | +13 | 12 | 3 | |
| 32 | 21 | 9-13 | 1-4 | 2-2 | +23 | 9 | 2 | |
| 33 | 20 | 7-22 | 2-4 | 4-5 | +3 | 3 | 10 | |
| 18 | 3 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 3-4 | -6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 27 | 11 | 4-13 | 1-4 | 2-2 | +1 | 5 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 19 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-5 | — | -2 | 3 | 2 | |
| 22 | 17 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 4-4 | -3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 21 | 20 | 8-14 | 4-8 | — | +23 | 4 | 0 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -11 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 4 | 1-4 | — | 2-2 | +11 | 6 | 7 | |
| 17 | 15 | 5-10 | 5-9 | — | +13 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 116 | 42-101 | 15-40 | 17-19 | 44 | 28 | ||
| DNP: P. Sandfort, K. Williams | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
42
18
Ast
28
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
OKC
Home
36-77
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
42-101
47
FG %
42
15-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-40
16-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-19
18
Assists
28
22
Turnovers
7
Season series
Series tied 2-2
MIN105@OKC113OKC107@MIN112OKC111@MIN123MIN103@OKC116todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -8.5
Between 7 and 10
Total
227.5
Standard · +1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN+30025%OKC-38079%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
227.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
OKC beat MIN 116-103. C. Holmgren led with 21 PTS, 9 REB, 2 AST. OKC outscored the other side 33-23 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
OKC vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 30 REB · 15 AST
GS 47
Bench(8)
32 PTS · 16 REB · 3 AST
GS 22
OKCstarters 47% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 29 REB · 18 AST
GS 53
Bench(6)
61 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST
GS 54
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJulius Randle · shooting foul
Isaiah Joe · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
Isaiah Joe · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 22 | 31 | 23 | 27 | 103 |
| OKC | 23 | 24 | 33 | 36 | 116 |
Period scoring
MIN won 1 · OKC won 3
Q1
Dosunmu 7
Holmgren 7
Q2
Randle 12
Joe 8
Q3
Randle 9
Joe 8
Q4
Randle 6
Gilgeous-Alexander 10
Shooting comparison
47%
36-77
FG
42%
42-101
45%
15-33
3PT
38%
15-40
73%
16-22
FT
89%
17-19
Play-by-play · 480 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 103·OKC 116
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 103·OKC 116
- Q4·1.2
shot clock turnover
MIN 103·OKC 116
- Q4·1.2
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 103·OKC 116
- Q4·2.0
Rocco Zikarsky misses 18-foot jump bank shot
MIN 103·OKC 116
- Q4·3.4
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 103·OKC 116
- Q4·5.8
Cason Wallace blocks Jaylen Clark 's 26-foot three point jumper
·
MIN 103·OKC 116
- Q4·23.8
Jaylen Clark defensive rebound
MIN 103·OKC 116
- Q4·27.4
Jared McCain misses 27-foot three point jumper
MIN 103·OKC 116
- Q4·28.9
Jaylin Williams offensive rebound
·
MIN 103·OKC 116
- Q4·32.4
Isaiah Joe misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIN 103·OKC 116
- Q4·50.9
Rocco Zikarsky makes 2-foot running dunk (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)
·
MIN 103·OKC 116
- Q4·55.7
Joe Ingles defensive rebound
·
MIN 101·OKC 116
- Q4·58.3
Jared McCain misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 101·OKC 116
- Q4·59.7
Thunder offensive team rebound
MIN 101·OKC 116
- Q4·59.7
Rocco Zikarsky blocks Jaylin Williams 's 5-foot layup
· ·
MIN 101·OKC 116
- Q4·1:14
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer
MIN 101·OKC 116
- Q4·1:26
Isaiah Joe makes 1-foot dunk (Cason Wallace assists)
·
MIN 98·OKC 116
- Q4·1:35
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
MIN 98·OKC 114
- Q4·1:35
Rocco Zikarsky misses 2-foot tip shot
MIN 98·OKC 114
- Q4·1:35
Rocco Zikarsky offensive rebound
MIN 98·OKC 114
- Q4·1:37
Terrence Shannon Jr. misses driving floating jump shot
MIN 98·OKC 114
- Q4·1:46
Jaylen Clark enters the game for Julius Randle
·
MIN 98·OKC 114
- Q4·1:46
Joe Ingles enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu
· ·
MIN 98·OKC 114
- Q4·1:46
Rocco Zikarsky enters the game for Naz Reid
·
MIN 98·OKC 114
- Q4·1:46
Bones Hyland enters the game for Anthony Edwards
·
MIN 98·OKC 114
- Q4·1:46
Terrence Shannon Jr. enters the game for Donte DiVincenzo
·
MIN 98·OKC 114
- Q4·1:46
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
·
MIN 98·OKC 114
- Q4·1:46
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 98·OKC 114
- Q4·1:46
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 1
MIN 98·OKC 114
Betting line
OKC -8.5·O/U 227.5·MIN +300/OKC -380
Recap · NBA
klahoma City Thunder held off Minnesota Timberwolves, 116–103.
OKC -8.5 cashed (won by 13). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 8.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohort
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+- Chet HolmgrenOKC · CCONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · GDRIVES18.399
Ajay MitchellOKC · GDRIVES14.797
Anthony EdwardsMIN · GUSG%31.397
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
OKC vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
140
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- LaMelo BallMIN22.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- LaMelo BallMIN7.3± 2.5high
- Ajay MitchellOKC4.2± 2.6high
Blocks
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Joan BeringerMIN1.1± 2.1high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC1.5± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIN
league avg
OKC
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.9%
47.6%
FG%
47.0
▶48.2%
116.8
PPG
114.9
▶118.5
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.8
14.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶11.9