NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9SAC

SAC

17-51

118109

LAC

34-33

NBASat, Mar 14FinalSeriesLAC lead series 2-1VegasLAC -13.5

SAC · top performer

Precious Achiuwa

PF · #9

24.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAC · top performer

Darius Garland

G · #10

20.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSAC ↔ LAC

Biggest swing: 48pp · 4th Quarter · 5:07

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	37	25	10-14	3-4	2-2	+18	13	1
M. RaynaudC · #42	30	23	11-12	—	1-3	+7	5	2
R. WestbrookG · #18	37	12	4-15	2-8	2-4	+14	12	10
D. DeRozanG · #10	37	27	11-14	0-1	5-5	+9	0	7
N. CliffordG · #5	35	11	4-11	3-5	0-2	-2	4	4
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	14	3	1-4	1-4	—	-5	0	0
D. CardwellC · #32	13	0	0-1	—	—	-4	6	1
D. PlowdenG · #29	31	15	6-9	3-4	—	+10	5	2
K. HayesG · #3	7	2	1-2	0-1	—	-2	3	2
Team		118	48-82	12-27	10-16		48	29
DNP: D. Eubanks, M. Monk, D. Carter

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	26	31	13-23	2-6	3-6	-16	6	0
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	32	2	1-4	0-1	—	-16	3	1
B. LopezC · #11	22	0	0-2	0-1	—	-13	0	2
K. DunnG · #8	28	5	2-7	1-2	—	0	6	2
D. GarlandG · #10	30	25	9-20	5-10	2-2	+17	3	7
Bench
J. CollinsF · #20	20	10	2-5	1-3	5-6	-5	3	0
I. JacksonF · #23	23	6	2-4	—	2-2	+10	8	4
J. MillerG · #22	23	6	3-4	—	0-2	-11	0	2
B. MathurinG · #9	35	24	7-15	0-4	10-11	-11	6	1
T. Washington Jr.G · #15	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		109	39-84	9-27	22-29		35	19
DNP: N. Omier, B. Bogdanovic, K. Sanders, C. Christie

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

LAC

Home

48-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-84

FG %

12-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-27

10-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAC lead series 2-1

Dec 31

SAC90@

LAC131

Feb 7

LAC114@

SAC111

Mar 15

SAC118@

LAC109today

Apr 6

LAC138@

SAC109

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

231.5

Standard · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+62514%

LAC-95090%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -13.5↗SpreadBet LAC -13.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

231.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SAC beat LAC 118-109. P. Achiuwa paced them with 25 PTS, 13 REB, 1 AST. SAC outscored the other side 35-23 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAC vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

98 PTS · 34 REB · 24 AST

GS 83

Bench(4)

20 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST

GS 16

LACstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST

GS 50

Bench(5)

46 PTS · 17 REB · 7 AST

GS 41

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAC3rd Quarter · 8:11 · 74-62

+16pp→ 31% WP

Derrick Jones Jr. · misses 1-foot tip shot

SAC4th Quarter · 3:48 · 106-100

+15pp→ 76% WP

Russell Westbrook · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Precious Achiuwa assists)

LAC4th Quarter · 5:07 · 101-98

+48pp→ 49% WP

Precious Achiuwa · bad pass turnover (Kris Dunn steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	33	35	24	26	118
LAC	31	23	21	34	109

Period scoring

SAC won 3 · LAC won 1

Raynaud 9

Leonard 13

Achiuwa 11

Miller 9

Raynaud 8

Leonard 14

DeRozan 8

Garland 13

SAC

LAC

Shooting comparison

SAC

LAC

59%

48-82

46%

39-84

44%

12-27

3PT

33%

9-27

63%

10-16

76%

22-29

Play-by-play · 446 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 118·LAC 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 118·LAC 109
Q4·2.7
shot clock turnover
SAC 118·LAC 109
Q4·26.7
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 118·LAC 109
Q4·26.7
TyTy Washington Jr. enters the game for Kris Dunn
·
SAC 118·LAC 108
Q4·26.7
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 118·LAC 108
Q4·26.7
Bennedict Mathurin makes technical free throw
SAC 118·LAC 107
Q4·26.7
Russell Westbrook technical foul
SAC 118·LAC 106
Q4·26.7
Nique Clifford personal foul
SAC 118·LAC 106
Q4·40.7
Nique Clifford makes 26-foot three pointer (Daeqwon Plowden assists)
·
SAC 118·LAC 106
Q4·51.9
Russell Westbrook offensive rebound
SAC 115·LAC 106
−0.7pp
Q4·54.7
Russell Westbrook misses 23-foot three point jumper
SAC 115·LAC 106
Q4·1:12
Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
SAC 115·LAC 106
Q4·1:14
Bennedict Mathurin misses 25-foot three point jumper
SAC 115·LAC 106
−1pp
Q4·1:25
DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 3 of 3BIG MOMENT
SAC 115·LAC 106
−47pp
Q4·1:25
Clippers Full timeout
SAC 114·LAC 106
Q4·1:25
DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 3
SAC 114·LAC 106
−1pp
Q4·1:25
DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 3BIG MOMENT
SAC 113·LAC 106
−9pp
Q4·1:25
(01:25) [Clippers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Clippers] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
SAC 112·LAC 106
+8pp
Q4·1:25
Clippers Full timeout
SAC 112·LAC 106
Q4·1:25
Jordan Miller enters the game for Darius Garland
·
SAC 112·LAC 106
Q4·1:25
Kris Dunn shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 112·LAC 106
−6pp
Q4·1:41
Derrick Jones Jr. makes 1-foot layup (Darius Garland assists)
·
SAC 112·LAC 106
+3pp
Q4·1:51
shot clock turnover
SAC 112·LAC 104
+2pp
Q4·2:19
Darius Garland makes driving layup
SAC 112·LAC 104
+1pp
Q4·2:37
Nique Clifford makes 23-foot running jump shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 112·LAC 102
−5pp
Q4·2:41
Derrick Jones Jr. lost ball turnover (DeMar DeRozan steals)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 109·LAC 102
−6pp
Q4·3:01
Daeqwon Plowden makes 23-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 109·LAC 102
−14pp
Q4·3:24
Isaiah Jackson makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 106·LAC 102
+7pp
Q4·3:25
Isaiah Jackson offensive rebound
SAC 106·LAC 100
+5pp

Betting line

LAC -13.5·O/U 231.5·SAC +625/LAC -950

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

acramento Kings went into LA Clippers and beat them, 118–109.

SAC +13.5 cashed (LAC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 231.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kawhi LeonardLAC · F
USG%33.399
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Darius GarlandLAC · G
DRIVES13.896
Brook LopezLAC · C
CONT8.396
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAC vs SAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Kawhi LeonardLAC
25.5± 4.3high
Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high
Domantas SabonisSAC
4.3± 2.0high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high

Steals

Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Kawhi LeonardLAC
1.3± 0.9high
Killian HayesSAC
1.2± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

LAC

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.5%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

113.9

25.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

23.8

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR