NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2LAL

DEN

41-27

125127

LAL

42-25

NBASat, Mar 14FinalSeriesLAL win series 2-1VegasDEN -1.5

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

31.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Austin Reaves

G · #15

25.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDEN ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 44pp · OT · 0.5

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GordonF · #32	35	27	9-16	5-10	4-7	-3	5	2
C. JohnsonF · #23	43	18	6-13	4-10	2-2	+15	4	3
N. JokicC · #15	43	24	10-19	2-6	2-2	+6	16	14
J. MurrayG · #27	36	5	1-14	1-7	2-3	-9	6	6
C. BraunG · #0	33	12	5-9	0-2	2-2	-6	1	3
Bench
S. JonesF · #21	23	5	2-4	1-1	—	-2	3	0
J. ValanciunasC · #17	3	2	1-1	—	—	-8	1	0
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	29	20	6-13	4-10	4-4	+2	1	3
B. BrownG · #11	20	12	4-6	2-3	2-2	-5	4	2
Team		125	44-95	19-49	18-22		41	33
DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Roddy, T. Jones, J. Pickett, J. Strawther

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	40	17	7-13	1-3	2-3	+6	6	5
D. AytonC · #5	27	9	4-6	—	1-4	+1	9	2
M. SmartG · #36	35	21	8-15	5-12	—	+16	3	2
L. DoncicG · #77	43	30	10-26	4-14	6-9	-4	11	13
A. ReavesG · #15	46	32	12-21	3-8	5-6	+7	7	6
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	25	6	3-6	0-3	—	-8	4	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	12	4	2-2	—	—	+3	1	1
J. HayesC · #11	21	5	1-2	—	3-4	-2	4	0
L. KennardG · #10	16	3	1-2	1-2	—	-9	1	2
Team		127	48-93	14-42	17-26		46	31
DNP: J. Vanderbilt, D. Timme, D. Knecht, A. Thiero, K. Bufkin, B. James

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

44-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-93

FG %

19-49

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-42

18-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL win series 2-1

Jan 21

LAL115@

DEN107

Mar 6

LAL113@

DEN120

Mar 15

DEN125@

LAL127today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

244.5

High-scoring · +18.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN-12255%

LAL+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -1.5↗SpreadBet DEN -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

244.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat DEN 127-125. A. Reaves paced them with 32 PTS, 7 REB, 6 AST. DEN outscored the other side 37-26 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 32 REB · 28 AST

GS 71

Bench(4)

39 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST

GS 34

LALstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

109 PTS · 36 REB · 28 AST

GS 90

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST

GS 16

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL4th Quarter · 1.9 · 118-118

+35pp→ 49% WP

Austin Reaves · makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot

LALOT · 0.5 · 125-127

+44pp→ 98% WP

Luka Doncic · makes 17-foot step back jumpshot

DENOT · 2:49 · 118-120

+29pp→ 29% WP

Nikola Jokic · vs. Deandre Ayton

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
DEN	26	24	37	31	7	125
LAL	34	27	26	31	9	127

Period scoring

DEN won 1 · LAL won 3

Jokic 9

Doncic 12

Johnson 6

James 11

Jokic 10

Reaves 6

Gordon 10

Reaves 14

Gordon 3

Ayton 4

DEN

LAL

Shooting comparison

DEN

LAL

46%

44-95

52%

48-93

39%

19-49

3PT

33%

14-42

82%

18-22

65%

17-26

Play-by-play · 535 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
DEN 125·LAL 127
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
DEN 125·LAL 127
OT·0.1
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DEN 125·LAL 127
OT·0.2
Luka Doncic blocks Tim Hardaway Jr. 's 29-foot three point jumper
·
DEN 125·LAL 127
+1pp
OT·0.5
Cameron Johnson enters the game for Bruce Brown
·
DEN 125·LAL 127
OT·0.5
Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Spencer Jones
· ·
DEN 125·LAL 127
OT·0.5
Deandre Ayton enters the game for Rui Hachimura
·
DEN 125·LAL 127
OT·0.5
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 125·LAL 127
OT·0.5
Luka Doncic makes 17-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
DEN 125·LAL 127
+45pp
OT·15.1
Bruce Brown enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.
·
DEN 125·LAL 125
OT·15.1
Spencer Jones enters the game for Cameron Johnson
· ·
DEN 125·LAL 125
OT·15.1
Rui Hachimura enters the game for Deandre Ayton
·
DEN 125·LAL 125
OT·15.1
Lakers Full timeout
DEN 125·LAL 125
OT·15.1
Nikola Jokic makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
DEN 125·LAL 125
−10pp
OT·23.0
Nuggets offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
DEN 123·LAL 125
−11pp
OT·23.1
Deandre Ayton blocks Nikola Jokic 's 2-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
DEN 123·LAL 125
+13pp
OT·30.0
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 123·LAL 125
OT·30.7
Marcus Smart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 123·LAL 125
+18pp
OT·47.0
Aaron Gordon makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
DEN 123·LAL 122
−2pp
OT·57.0
Deandre Ayton personal foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 120·LAL 122
−20pp
OT·1:12
Deandre Ayton makes 3-foot hook shot (LeBron James assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
DEN 120·LAL 122
+13pp
OT·1:28
Deandre Ayton defensive rebound
DEN 120·LAL 120
+2pp
OT·1:28
Nikola Jokic misses 11-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DEN 120·LAL 120
+6pp
OT·1:45
Christian Braun defensive rebound
DEN 120·LAL 120
−2pp
OT·1:47
Austin Reaves misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DEN 120·LAL 120
−7pp
OT·2:02
Austin Reaves defensive rebound
DEN 120·LAL 120
+2pp
OT·2:06
Aaron Gordon misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DEN 120·LAL 120
+7pp
OT·2:12
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
DEN 120·LAL 120
−2pp
OT·2:15
Aaron Gordon blocks LeBron James 's 3-foot layupBIG MOMENT
· ·
DEN 120·LAL 120
−7pp
OT·2:36
Christian Braun makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DEN 120·LAL 120
+7pp

Betting line

DEN -1.5·O/U 244.5·DEN -122/LAL +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Denver Nuggets, 127–125 in overtime. Decided by 2.

LAL +1.5 cashed (DEN lost outright). Total cleared the 244.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Jaxson HayesLAL · C
TS%75.899+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

LAL

57.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

57.0%

49.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

114.8

28.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

12.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR