NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13SA

CHA

34-34

102115

49-18

NBASat, Mar 14FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSA -6.5

CHA · top performer

Kon Knueppel

G · #7

16.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

31.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 7pp · 4th Quarter · 9:33

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	34	22	8-16	4-8	2-2	-21	4	2
M. DiabateF · #14	21	4	2-7	—	—	-13	5	3
B. MillerF · #24	33	6	2-14	2-7	—	-21	6	3
L. BallG · #1	22	17	6-13	4-10	1-2	-22	4	2
K. KnueppelG · #7	32	20	6-14	3-10	5-6	-8	6	3
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	22	6	1-8	1-7	3-3	+3	3	1
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	18	3	1-2	0-1	1-2	-1	3	1
C. WhiteG · #3	26	18	7-15	2-7	2-2	+4	4	2
J. GreenG · #10	18	6	2-3	2-3	—	+16	1	0
S. JamesG · #4	14	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	3	1
Team		102	35-93	18-54	14-17		39	18
DNP: X. Tillman, T. Evbuomwan, P. Connaughton, T. Mann

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	33	9	4-11	1-6	—	+7	4	2
V. WembanyamaF · #1	31	32	13-24	5-10	1-2	+6	12	8
D. FoxG · #4	35	17	6-16	1-4	4-5	+4	6	4
D. VassellG · #24	34	9	2-6	1-3	4-4	+13	5	3
S. CastleG · #5	29	15	5-11	1-3	4-4	+22	7	10
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	22	2	0-3	0-1	2-2	-2	3	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	21	13	6-9	1-2	—	+11	5	0
C. BryantF · #11	16	8	3-8	1-4	1-2	-3	4	1
L. KornetC · #7	20	10	4-4	—	2-2	+7	8	1
Team		115	43-92	11-33	18-21		54	29
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, H. Ingram, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

Home

35-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-92

FG %

18-54

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-33

14-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 31

SA106@

CHA111

Mar 14

CHA102@

SA115today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA+20033%

SA-24571%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -6.5↗SpreadBet SA -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat CHA 115-102. V. Wembanyama paced them with 32 PTS, 12 REB, 8 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 25 REB · 13 AST

GS 46

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST

GS 29

SAstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 34 REB · 27 AST

GS 73

Bench(4)

33 PTS · 20 REB · 2 AST

GS 28

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA4th Quarter · 9:33 · 88-92

+7pp→ 23% WP

Miles Bridges · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	24	22	37	19	102
SA	31	28	32	24	115

Period scoring

CHA won 1 · SA won 3

Ball 8

Wembanyama 11

Bridges 6

Wembanyama 7

Knueppel 17

Wembanyama 9

Bridges 13

Fox 7

CHA

Shooting comparison

CHA

38%

35-93

47%

43-92

33%

18-54

3PT

33%

11-33

82%

14-17

86%

18-21

Play-by-play · 495 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 102·SA 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 102·SA 115
Q4·17.1
shot clock turnover
CHA 102·SA 115
Q4·41.5
Miles Bridges makes 26-foot running jump shot (Sion James assists)
·
CHA 102·SA 115
Q4·43.7
Sion James defensive rebound
CHA 99·SA 115
Q4·47.2
Victor Wembanyama misses 27-foot three point jumper
CHA 99·SA 115
Q4·56.2
Coby White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)
·
CHA 99·SA 115
Q4·1:12
Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)
·
CHA 96·SA 115
Q4·1:22
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
CHA 96·SA 112
Q4·1:25
Sion James misses 23-foot three point jumper
CHA 96·SA 112
Q4·1:39
Stephon Castle makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Victor Wembanyama assists)
·
CHA 96·SA 112
Q4·1:47
Sion James personal foul
CHA 96·SA 110
Q4·2:04
Miles Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper
CHA 96·SA 110
Q4·2:18
De'Aaron Fox makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)
·
CHA 93·SA 110
Q4·2:39
Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 93·SA 108
Q4·2:39
Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
CHA 92·SA 108
Q4·2:39
Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 92·SA 108
Q4·2:39
De'Aaron Fox shooting foul
CHA 91·SA 108
Q4·2:40
Hornets offensive team rebound
CHA 91·SA 108
Q4·2:40
Victor Wembanyama blocks Grant Williams's three point jumper
·
CHA 91·SA 108
Q4·2:48
Devin Vassell personal foul
CHA 91·SA 108
Q4·2:48
Hornets offensive team rebound
CHA 91·SA 108
Q4·2:48
Miles Bridges misses 23-foot running jump shot
CHA 91·SA 108
Q4·2:52
De'Aaron Fox bad pass turnover (Coby White steals)
·
CHA 91·SA 108
Q4·2:56
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
CHA 91·SA 108
Q4·2:56
De'Aaron Fox blocks Kon Knueppel 's 5-foot driving layup
·
CHA 91·SA 108
Q4·3:06
De'Aaron Fox makes 6-foot two point shot
CHA 91·SA 108
Q4·3:24
Stephon Castle enters the game for Keldon Johnson
·
CHA 91·SA 106
Q4·3:24
Miles Bridges enters the game for Brandon Miller
·
CHA 91·SA 106
Q4·3:24
Victor Wembanyama enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
CHA 91·SA 106

Betting line

SA -6.5·O/U 232.5·CHA +200/SA -245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Charlotte Hornets, 115–102.

SA -6.5 cashed (won by 13). Total stayed UNDER 232.5 by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Coby WhiteCHA · G
USG%29.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

55.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.3%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

115.8

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

26.2

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR