NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4ORL

ORL

38-28

121117

MIA

38-30

NBASat, Mar 14FinalSeriesORL wins series 5-0VegasMIA -4.5

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

23.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

F · #11

19.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 14pp · 4th Quarter · 18.5

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	37	27	8-14	1-3	10-10	-2	8	7
T. da SilvaF · #23	31	11	5-12	1-4	—	+1	8	2
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	35	15	5-8	1-3	4-4	+7	8	2
D. BaneG · #3	35	21	8-17	1-5	4-4	+4	4	4
J. SuggsG · #4	34	14	6-17	2-9	0-2	-1	5	6
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	13	7	2-4	—	3-3	-3	4	0
J. CainF · #8	19	12	5-8	2-4	—	+4	7	0
N. PendaF · #93	20	7	2-4	1-2	2-2	0	3	2
J. CarterG · #2	16	7	3-5	1-2	—	+10	2	3
Team		121	44-89	10-32	23-25		49	26
DNP: G. Bitadze, J. Howard, J. Richardson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. AdebayoC · #13	38	20	6-15	2-7	6-10	-2	7	1
K. WareC · #7	27	13	5-8	1-3	2-2	-17	10	1
D. MitchellG · #45	26	14	5-8	2-4	2-2	-9	2	4
T. HerroG · #14	31	10	4-14	2-8	—	-4	6	5
P. LarssonG · #9	35	15	4-7	2-3	5-5	+6	3	3
Bench
M. GardnerF · #15	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	1	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	30	22	9-16	1-3	3-4	+11	2	7
N. PowellG · #24	31	20	7-15	1-5	5-5	+3	1	3
K. JakucionisG · #25	18	3	1-4	1-4	—	-3	0	1
Team		117	41-88	12-38	23-28		32	25
DNP: S. Fontecchio, K. Johnson, V. Goldin, D. Smith, T. Keels, J. Young

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

44-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-88

FG %

10-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-38

23-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ORL wins series 5-0

Oct 22

MIA121@

ORL125

Dec 6

MIA105@

ORL106

Dec 9

MIA108@

ORL117

Jan 29

ORL133@

MIA124

Mar 15

ORL121@

MIA117today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL+15439%

MIA-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -4.5↗SpreadBet MIA -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat MIA 121-117. P. Banchero paced them with 27 PTS, 8 REB, 7 AST. ORL outscored the other side 41-27 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 33 REB · 21 AST

GS 65

Bench(4)

33 PTS · 16 REB · 5 AST

GS 27

MIAstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 28 REB · 14 AST

GS 62

Bench(4)

45 PTS · 4 REB · 11 AST

GS 36

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIA4th Quarter · 18.5 · 117-113

+14pp→ 27% WP

Jamal Cain · shooting foul

ORL4th Quarter · 11.0 · 117-115

+13pp→ 94% WP

Norman Powell · shooting foul

ORL4th Quarter · 7.8 · 119-117

+9pp→ 95% WP

Jaime Jaquez Jr. · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	41	30	27	23	121
MIA	27	28	28	34	117

Period scoring

ORL won 2 · MIA won 2

Suggs 9

Herro 8

Cain 8

Adebayo 10

Banchero 13

Adebayo 7

Tristan 5

Larsson 13

ORL

MIA

Shooting comparison

ORL

MIA

49%

44-89

47%

41-88

31%

10-32

3PT

32%

12-38

92%

23-25

82%

23-28

Play-by-play · 473 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 121·MIA 117
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 121·MIA 117
−0.8pp
Q4·2.3
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
ORL 121·MIA 117
Q4·2.3
Bam Adebayo misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 121·MIA 117
−6pp
Q4·7.8
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 121·MIA 117
+4pp
Q4·7.8
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 120·MIA 117
−1pp
Q4·7.8
Jaime Jaquez Jr. shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 119·MIA 117
−9pp
Q4·8.6
Magic Full timeout
ORL 119·MIA 117
Q4·8.6
Norman Powell makes 5-foot driving dunk (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)
·
ORL 119·MIA 117
+4pp
Q4·11.0
Heat Full timeout
ORL 119·MIA 115
Q4·11.0
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
·
ORL 119·MIA 115
+5pp
Q4·11.0
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
·
ORL 118·MIA 115
−1pp
Q4·11.0
Norman Powell shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 117·MIA 115
−13pp
Q4·18.5
Magic Full timeout
ORL 117·MIA 115
Q4·18.5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
ORL 117·MIA 115
−10pp
Q4·18.5
Jevon Carter enters the game for Jamal Cain
·
ORL 117·MIA 114
Q4·18.5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 117·MIA 114
+3pp
Q4·18.5
Jamal Cain shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 117·MIA 113
+14pp
Q4·20.9
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
ORL 117·MIA 113
−0.6pp
Q4·23.2
Jalen Suggs misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
ORL 117·MIA 113
+7pp
Q4·23.2
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 117·MIA 113
+3pp
Q4·23.2
Jalen Suggs misses free throw 1 of 2
ORL 117·MIA 113
+2pp
Q4·23.2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. personal take foul
ORL 117·MIA 113
−0.7pp
Q4·29.3
Bam Adebayo personal foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 117·MIA 113
−8pp
Q4·36.6
5 second violationBIG MOMENT
ORL 117·MIA 113
−7pp
Q4·36.6
Jamal Cain enters the game for Jevon Carter
·
ORL 117·MIA 113
Q4·36.6
Heat Full timeout
ORL 117·MIA 113
Q4·36.6
Tristan da Silva out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
ORL 117·MIA 113
+6pp
Q4·43.2
Pelle Larsson makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
ORL 117·MIA 113
−6pp
Q4·43.2
Pelle Larsson makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 117·MIA 112
+2pp

Betting line

MIA -4.5·O/U 236.5·ORL +154/MIA -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic went into Miami Heat and beat them, 121–117. Decided by 4.

ORL +4.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total cleared the 236.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.797
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
5.1± 2.6high

Blocks

Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high
Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high
Desmond BaneORL
1.5± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

MIA

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.2%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.8%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

26.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.0

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR