UTAH
20-47
POR
32-35
UTAH · top performer
Brice Sensabaugh
F · #28
31
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
POR · top performer
Donovan Clingan
C · #23
21
Pts
15
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 4:10
NBA · Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 25 | 11 | 4-8 | 3-5 | — | +12 | 6 | 5 | |
| 36 | 19 | 7-17 | — | 5-7 | -4 | 7 | 3 | |
| 29 | 31 | 12-19 | 6-8 | 1-1 | -3 | 3 | 1 | |
| 30 | 17 | 6-15 | 0-2 | 5-6 | +4 | 3 | 9 | |
| 7 | 8 | 3-3 | 2-2 | — | +16 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 20 | 8 | 4-8 | — | — | -16 | 5 | 1 | |
| 30 | 10 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 4-6 | -20 | 4 | 2 | |
| 29 | 6 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 2-2 | -11 | 3 | 2 | |
| 34 | 4 | 2-8 | 0-3 | — | -28 | 4 | 4 | |
| Team | 114 | 42-92 | 13-30 | 17-22 | 36 | 28 | ||
| DNP: K. Love, S. Mykhailiuk, J. Konchar | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 25 | 9 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 1-1 | -17 | 3 | 0 | |
| 23 | 5 | 2-10 | 1-7 | — | +12 | 4 | 3 | |
| 32 | 17 | 7-9 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 0 | 6 | 8 | |
| 35 | 21 | 7-12 | 1-3 | 6-6 | +20 | 15 | 2 | |
| 32 | 25 | 10-16 | 4-9 | 1-2 | +10 | 5 | 8 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 14 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | -8 | 3 | 2 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 6 | 2-8 | 2-6 | — | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 15 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | +18 | 3 | 5 | |
| 30 | 25 | 8-14 | 5-7 | 4-4 | +11 | 5 | 3 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | 14 | 6-10 | 2-5 | — | +10 | 4 | 2 | |
| Team | 124 | 46-89 | 17-46 | 15-16 | 49 | 34 | ||
| DNP: R. Williams III, D. Lillard, S. Sharpe | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
52
28
Ast
34
Team stats
UTAH
Away
Stat
POR
Home
42-92
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
46-89
46
FG %
52
13-30
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
17-46
17-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-16
28
Assists
34
18
Turnovers
24
Season series
POR wins series 4-0
POR136@UTAH134UTAH117@POR137POR135@UTAH119UTAH114@POR124todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -15.5
Between 10 and —
Total
235.5
High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
UTAH+75012%POR-120092%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
15.5
0.0 since open
Total
235.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
POR beat UTAH 124-114. D. Clingan led with 21 PTS, 15 REB, 2 AST. POR outscored the other side 38-20 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
POR vs UTAH
Starters vs bench
production by unitUTAHstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
86 PTS · 20 REB · 19 AST
GS 72
Bench(4)
28 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST
GS 20
PORstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
77 PTS · 33 REB · 21 AST
GS 76
Bench(7)
47 PTS · 16 REB · 13 AST
GS 41
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIsaiah Collier · shooting foul
Cody Williams · misses 16-foot fade away jump shot
Brice Sensabaugh · lost ball turnover (Donovan Clingan steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 38 | 20 | 31 | 25 | 114 |
| POR | 28 | 38 | 29 | 29 | 124 |
Period scoring
UTAH won 2 · POR won 2
Q1
Sensabaugh 10
Henderson 10
Q2
Sensabaugh 5
Holiday 10
Q3
Sensabaugh 11
Cissoko 8
Q4
Collier 8
Clingan 8
Shooting comparison
46%
42-92
FG
52%
46-89
43%
13-30
3PT
37%
17-46
77%
17-22
FT
94%
15-16
Play-by-play · 477 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 114·POR 124
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 114·POR 124
- Q4·15.3
Cody Williams makes free throw 1 of 1
UTAH 114·POR 124
- Q4·15.3
Blake Wesley shooting foul
UTAH 113·POR 124
- Q4·15.3
Cody Williams makes running dunk
UTAH 113·POR 124
- Q4·18.6
Cody Williams defensive rebound
UTAH 111·POR 124
- Q4·22.3
Sidy Cissoko misses 26-foot three point jumper
UTAH 111·POR 124
- Q4·44.9
Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound
UTAH 111·POR 124
- Q4·48.1
Isaiah Collier misses 26-foot three point jumper
UTAH 111·POR 124
- Q4·48.9
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Deni Avdija
·
UTAH 111·POR 124
- Q4·48.9
Vit Krejci enters the game for Toumani Camara
·
UTAH 111·POR 124
- Q4·48.9
Kris Murray enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
UTAH 111·POR 124
- Q4·48.9
Yang Hansen enters the game for Jrue Holiday
·
UTAH 111·POR 124
- Q4·48.9
Blake Wesley enters the game for Scoot Henderson
·
UTAH 111·POR 124
- Q4·48.9
Toumani Camara personal foul
UTAH 111·POR 124
- Q4·54.6
Deni Avdija makes two point shot (Jrue Holiday assists)
·
UTAH 111·POR 124
- Q4·58.1
Donovan Clingan defensive rebound
UTAH 111·POR 122
- Q4·59.9
Cody Williams misses driving layup
UTAH 111·POR 122
- Q4·1:07
Donovan Clingan makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Deni Avdija assists)
·
UTAH 111·POR 122
- Q4·1:22
Andersson Garcia personal foul
UTAH 111·POR 120
- Q4·1:22
Isaiah Collier lost ball turnover (Jrue Holiday steals)
·
UTAH 111·POR 120
+1pp
- Q4·1:32
Deni Avdija makes 6-foot two point shot
UTAH 111·POR 120
+0.8pp
- Q4·1:44
Isaiah Collier makes 6-foot two point shot
UTAH 111·POR 118
- Q4·2:02
Donovan Clingan makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 109·POR 118
−0.5pp
- Q4·2:02
Donovan Clingan makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 109·POR 117
- Q4·2:02
Isaiah Collier shooting foul
UTAH 109·POR 116
+2pp
- Q4·2:19
Isaiah Collier makes 5-foot pullup jump shot
UTAH 109·POR 116
−0.9pp
- Q4·2:28
Bez Mbeng defensive rebound
UTAH 107·POR 116
- Q4·2:30
Bez Mbeng blocks Jrue Holiday's turnaround jump shot
·
UTAH 107·POR 116
−0.5pp
- Q4·2:47
Isaiah Collier makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Bez Mbeng assists)
·
UTAH 107·POR 116
−0.5pp
Betting line
POR -15.5·O/U 235.5·UTAH +750/POR -1200
Recap · NBA
ortland Trail Blazers held off Utah Jazz, 124–114.
UTAH +15.5 cashed (POR won by 10). Total cleared the 235.5 OVER by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Deni AvdijaPOR · FDRIVES20.899+
Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.698- Donovan ClinganPOR · CCONT7.694
Isaiah CollierUTAH · GDRIVES11.592
Toumani CamaraPOR · FCONT6.489
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · UTAH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
POR vs UTAH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Lauri MarkkanenUTAH24.2± 5.0high
- Keyonte GeorgeUTAH21.4± 8.8high
Rebounds
- Jusuf NurkicUTAH11.4± 4.1high
- Walker KesslerUTAH10.7± 2.2low
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
Assists
- Isaiah CollierUTAH6.6± 2.5high
- Kennedy ChandlerUTAH6.5± 2.2medium
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
Blocks
- Walker KesslerUTAH1.8± 2.5low
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH1.3± 1.3high
Steals
- Bez MbengUTAH2.5± 1.7medium
- John KoncharUTAH1.9± 1.7high
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
UTAH
league avg
POR
53.6%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.0%
46.7%
FG%
47.0
45.1%
117.6
PPG
114.9
114.6
29.6
Assists / G
25.0
25.0
15.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
16.2