NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10MIN

MIN

41-26

127117

32-34

NBAFri, Mar 13FinalSeriesMIN leads series 3-1VegasMIN -4.5

MIN · top performer

Anthony Edwards

G · #5

36.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Brandin Podziemski

G · #2

20.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 17pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:30

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	27	10	5-11	0-2	—	+9	4	1
J. McDanielsF · #3	30	15	6-9	1-3	2-2	+7	1	2
R. GobertC · #27	36	18	5-5	—	8-10	+8	9	2
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	28	7	3-9	1-6	—	+11	6	1
A. EdwardsG · #5	37	42	13-22	4-9	12-12	+10	8	5
Bench
K. AndersonF · #12	15	0	0-2	—	—	-5	5	2
N. ReidC · #11	27	12	5-9	1-1	1-2	+5	3	4
A. DosunmuG · #13	31	12	5-9	2-4	—	+5	8	7
B. HylandG · #8	11	11	4-6	3-5	—	0	1	1
Team		127	46-82	12-30	23-26		45	25
DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips, R. Zikarsky, M. Conley, J. Clark, T. Shannon Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. SantosF · #15	35	17	6-15	3-10	2-2	-3	3	8
A. HorfordC · #20	5	3	1-3	1-3	—	-3	1	0
K. PorzingisC · #7	22	20	7-16	2-5	4-4	-8	4	2
D. MeltonG · #8	24	12	4-11	2-5	2-2	0	2	3
B. PodziemskiG · #2	36	25	8-17	5-10	4-5	-6	10	2
Bench
M. LeonsF · #33	14	6	2-6	0-2	2-2	+7	2	1
Q. PostC · #21	11	7	2-4	1-2	2-2	-7	3	1
Se. CurryG · #31	7	0	0-2	—	—	-5	1	1
G. Payton IIG · #0	19	12	4-8	0-1	4-4	-5	3	2
L. CryerG · #18	19	8	2-6	0-4	4-4	-3	2	0
P. SpencerG · #61	19	7	3-6	1-3	—	-18	2	3
W. RichardG · #3	29	0	0-3	0-3	—	+1	5	0
Team		117	39-97	15-48	24-25		38	23
DNP: D. Green

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

Home

46-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-97

FG %

12-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-48

23-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN leads series 3-1

Dec 13

MIN127@

GS120

Jan 24

GS0@

MIN0

Jan 25

GS111@

MIN85

Jan 27

GS83@

MIN108

Mar 14

MIN127@

GS117today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-20567%

GS+17037%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -4.5↗SpreadBet MIN -4.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat GS 127-117. A. Edwards led the way with 42 points and 8 rebounds. MIN outscored the other side 38-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

92 PTS · 28 REB · 11 AST

GS 73

Bench(4)

35 PTS · 17 REB · 14 AST

GS 35

GSstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 20 REB · 15 AST

GS 60

Bench(7)

40 PTS · 18 REB · 8 AST

GS 31

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN2nd Quarter · 9:06 · 41-35

+13pp→ 71% WP

Seth Curry · misses 14-foot pullup jump shot

MIN2nd Quarter · 7:30 · 48-39

+17pp→ 79% WP

Gary Payton II · misses 24-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	31	38	31	27	127
GS	28	20	39	30	117

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · GS won 2

Edwards 9

Podziemski 8

Edwards 11

II 15

Edwards 12

Spencer 15

McDaniels 11

Santos 13

MIN

Shooting comparison

MIN

56%

46-82

40%

39-97

40%

12-30

3PT

31%

15-48

88%

23-26

96%

24-25

Play-by-play · 492 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 127·GS 117
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 127·GS 117
Q4·0.7
Warriors offensive team rebound
MIN 127·GS 117
Q4·0.7
Kyle Anderson blocks Brandin Podziemski 's 44-foot heave jump shot
·
MIN 127·GS 117
Q4·5.0
Jaden McDaniels out of bounds lost ball turnover
MIN 127·GS 117
Q4·28.4
LJ Cryer makes driving layup
MIN 127·GS 117
Q4·34.4
Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound
MIN 127·GS 115
Q4·37.5
LJ Cryer misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIN 127·GS 115
Q4·47.9
Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 127·GS 115
Q4·47.9
Kyle Anderson enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
MIN 126·GS 115
Q4·47.9
Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 126·GS 115
Q4·47.9
Will Richard personal foul
MIN 125·GS 115
Q4·51.7
Timberwolves defensive team rebound
MIN 125·GS 115
Q4·52.1
Malevy Leons misses two point shot
MIN 125·GS 115
Q4·58.6
Ayo Dosunmu steps out of bounds turnover
MIN 125·GS 115
Q4·59.7
LJ Cryer makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 125·GS 115
Q4·59.7
LJ Cryer makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 125·GS 114
Q4·59.7
Jaden McDaniels shooting foul
MIN 125·GS 113
Q4·1:08
Rudy Gobert makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 125·GS 113
Q4·1:08
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 124·GS 113
Q4·1:08
Rudy Gobert misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 124·GS 113
Q4·1:08
Gui Santos shooting foul
MIN 124·GS 113
Q4·1:08
Rudy Gobert offensive rebound
MIN 124·GS 113
Q4·1:10
Ayo Dosunmu misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 124·GS 113
Q4·1:28
Malevy Leons loose ball foul
MIN 124·GS 113
Q4·1:28
Timberwolves defensive team rebound
MIN 124·GS 113
Q4·1:28
Gui Santos misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIN 124·GS 113
Q4·1:35
Anthony Edwards makes driving layup
MIN 124·GS 113
−0.7pp
Q4·1:52
Gui Santos makes driving layup
MIN 122·GS 113
+0.5pp
Q4·2:03
Jaden McDaniels bad pass turnover (Gui Santos steals)
·
MIN 122·GS 111

Betting line

MIN -4.5·O/U 224.5·MIN -205/GS +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves went into Golden State Warriors and beat them, 127–117.

MIN -4.5 cashed (won by 10). Total cleared the 224.5 OVER by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Kristaps PorzingisGS · C
CONT9.498
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
De'Anthony MeltonGS · G
DEFL2.992
Al HorfordGS · C
CONT6.689

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

GS vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Kristaps PorzingisGS
5.6± 2.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
5.4± 1.6high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
4.8± 1.7high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high

Steals

De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high
Stephen CurryGS
1.3± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIN

league avg

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

47.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.2%

116.8

PPG

◀

114.9

114.5

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.8

14.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR