NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+33CLE

CLE

41-26

138105

DAL

22-45

NBAFri, Mar 13FinalSeriesCLE leads series 1-0VegasCLE -13.5

CLE · top performer

Evan Mobley

C · #4

23.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Cooper Flagg

F · #32

18.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 13pp · 1st Quarter · 3:52

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	18	3	1-2	1-1	—	+13	0	1
E. MobleyC · #4	23	29	12-15	2-4	3-7	+12	7	2
J. HardenG · #1	29	17	6-11	3-7	2-2	+27	7	7
D. MitchellG · #45	29	24	11-16	1-4	1-1	+6	2	8
K. EllisG · #14	26	13	5-9	3-5	—	+14	3	1
Bench
L. Nance Jr.F · #22	7	6	2-2	2-2	—	+5	4	1
T. EnarunaF · #21	7	2	1-5	0-1	—	+5	1	0
N. TomlinF · #35	17	8	4-7	0-3	0-1	+15	2	1
R. MinixF · #12	7	4	2-3	0-1	—	+5	3	2
T. BryantC · #3	22	11	4-5	1-2	2-2	+15	4	0
D. SchroderG · #8	21	8	3-8	2-4	—	+20	5	6
J. TysonG · #20	20	8	3-6	2-3	—	+16	3	2
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	15	5	2-2	1-1	—	+12	4	1
Team		138	56-91	18-38	8-13		45	32

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	27	4	2-5	0-1	—	-9	4	0
N. MarshallF · #13	27	17	7-12	2-4	1-4	-17	7	3
C. FlaggF · #32	29	25	8-16	1-3	8-8	-5	4	5
M. ChristieG · #00	27	12	4-8	2-6	2-2	-9	0	0
R. NembhardG · #9	27	8	3-7	2-4	—	-8	4	9
Bench
K. MiddletonF · #20	17	4	2-6	0-1	—	-12	2	1
D. PowellF · #7	21	11	4-5	—	3-3	-24	11	2
C. MartinF · #16	16	4	1-5	0-3	2-2	-25	1	2
T. SmithF · #23	6	0	0-3	0-3	—	-2	1	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	16	6	3-11	0-5	—	-27	2	1
B. WilliamsG · #10	21	12	3-8	2-3	4-5	-25	3	3
A. JohnsonG · #8	6	2	1-1	—	—	-2	1	1
Team		105	38-87	9-33	20-24		40	27

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

56-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-87

FG %

18-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-33

8-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CLE leads series 1-0

Mar 13

CLE138@

DAL105today

Mar 15

DAL130@

CLE120

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-70088%

DAL+50017%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -13.5↗SpreadBet CLE -13.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat DAL 138-105. E. Mobley paced them with 29 PTS, 7 REB, 2 AST. CLE outscored the other side 38-21 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 19 REB · 19 AST

GS 77

Bench(8)

52 PTS · 26 REB · 13 AST

GS 49

DALstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 19 REB · 17 AST

GS 50

Bench(7)

39 PTS · 21 REB · 10 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE1st Quarter · 3:52 · 25-16

+13pp→ 87% WP

Jaylon Tyson · makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)

CLE1st Quarter · 2:23 · 30-16

+10pp→ 93% WP

Caleb Martin · misses 20-foot jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	38	29	41	30	138
DAL	21	29	33	22	105

Period scoring

CLE won 3 · DAL won 0

Mobley 16

Marshall 10

Mitchell 10

Nembhard 8

Mitchell 12

Flagg 13

Ellis 6

Tomlin 11

CLE

DAL

Shooting comparison

CLE

DAL

62%

56-91

44%

38-87

47%

18-38

3PT

27%

9-33

62%

8-13

83%

20-24

Play-by-play · 455 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 138·DAL 105
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 138·DAL 105
Q4·8.4
Dwight Powell makes 1-foot dunk
CLE 138·DAL 105
Q4·8.4
Dwight Powell offensive rebound
CLE 138·DAL 103
Q4·11.1
Tyler Smith misses 26-foot three point jumper
CLE 138·DAL 103
Q4·27.6
Larry Nance Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Riley Minix assists)
·
CLE 138·DAL 103
Q4·32.8
Riley Minix defensive rebound
CLE 135·DAL 103
Q4·35.6
Caleb Martin misses 23-foot three point jumper
CLE 135·DAL 103
Q4·44.0
Tristan Enaruna makes driving layup (Larry Nance Jr. assists)
·
CLE 135·DAL 103
Q4·45.5
Larry Nance Jr. offensive rebound
CLE 133·DAL 103
Q4·47.9
Brandon Williams blocks Tristan Enaruna 's 5-foot layup
·
CLE 133·DAL 103
Q4·1:08
Tyler Smith out of bounds lost ball turnover
CLE 133·DAL 103
Q4·1:19
AJ Johnson defensive rebound
CLE 133·DAL 103
Q4·1:24
Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses 23-foot three point jumper
CLE 133·DAL 103
Q4·1:36
Brandon Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 133·DAL 103
Q4·1:36
Brandon Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 133·DAL 102
Q4·1:36
Tristan Enaruna shooting foul
CLE 133·DAL 101
Q4·1:38
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
CLE 133·DAL 101
Q4·1:42
Tristan Enaruna misses 12-foot two point shot
CLE 133·DAL 101
Q4·2:04
AJ Johnson makes running layup (Brandon Williams assists)
·
CLE 133·DAL 101
Q4·2:07
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
CLE 133·DAL 99
Q4·2:10
Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 133·DAL 99
Q4·2:14
Larry Nance Jr. offensive rebound
CLE 133·DAL 99
Q4·2:18
Tristan Enaruna misses 26-foot three point jumper
CLE 133·DAL 99
Q4·2:28
Riley Minix defensive rebound
CLE 133·DAL 99
Q4·2:30
Thomas Bryant blocks Dwight Powell 's 2-foot layup
·
CLE 133·DAL 99
Q4·2:52
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
CLE 133·DAL 99
Q4·2:54
Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses free throw 1 of 1
CLE 133·DAL 99
Q4·2:54
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 133·DAL 99
Q4·2:54
AJ Johnson shooting foul
CLE 133·DAL 99

Betting line

CLE -13.5·O/U 236.5·CLE -700/DAL +500

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers went into Dallas Mavericks and beat them, 138–105. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CLE -13.5 cashed (won by 33). Total cleared the 236.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894
James HardenCLE · G
DRIVES12.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

DAL

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.6%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

27.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.3

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR