NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7TOR

PHX

39-28

115122

TOR

37-29

NBAFri, Mar 13FinalSeriesTOR leads series 1-0VegasTOR -5.5

PHX · top performer

Jalen Green

G · #4

23.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Brandon Ingram

F · #3

31.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 36pp · 1st Quarter · 8:36

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	28	6	2-9	2-9	—	-8	6	4
O. IghodaroF · #11	24	5	2-3	—	1-6	0	6	0
D. BookerG · #1	34	31	10-20	2-5	9-11	-8	3	0
C. GillespieG · #12	26	0	0-3	0-3	—	+7	3	2
J. GreenG · #4	35	34	13-25	8-16	—	-2	5	4
Bench
H. HighsmithF · #19	19	5	2-3	1-1	—	-3	1	2
R. FlemingF · #20	23	9	3-5	3-3	—	-3	3	0
K. MaluachC · #10	4	2	—	—	2-2	0	1	1
G. AllenG · #8	29	15	3-7	1-4	8-10	-8	2	6
J. GoodwinG · #23	18	8	3-5	1-1	1-1	-10	4	1
Team		115	38-80	18-42	21-30		34	20
DNP: R. Dunn, A. Coffey, J. Bouyea

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	39	36	13-20	5-6	5-7	+17	7	3
R. BarrettF · #9	35	22	9-16	1-4	3-4	+9	6	5
S. BarnesF · #4	31	14	6-12	—	2-2	+7	6	4
J. PoeltlC · #19	21	6	3-5	—	—	-3	6	1
I. QuickleyG · #5	38	17	7-16	3-6	—	+3	4	1
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	16	9	3-5	1-3	2-2	-2	8	1
J. BattleF · #77	9	0	0-1	0-1	—	-6	1	1
J. MogboF · #2	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
J. SheadG · #23	25	6	2-5	1-2	1-1	-4	2	8
J. WalterG · #14	25	12	3-6	3-5	3-4	+16	4	1
Team		122	46-86	14-27	16-20		44	25
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, G. Temple, A.J. Lawson, A. Martin, G. Dick

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

38-80

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

46-86

FG %

18-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-27

21-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

Mar 13

PHX115@

TOR122today

Mar 23

TOR98@

PHX120

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX+17037%

TOR-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -5.5↗SpreadBet TOR -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat PHX 122-115. B. Ingram led the way with 36 points and 7 rebounds. TOR outscored the other side 36-23 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 23 REB · 10 AST

GS 46

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 11 REB · 10 AST

GS 41

TORstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

95 PTS · 29 REB · 14 AST

GS 74

Bench(5)

27 PTS · 15 REB · 11 AST

GS 26

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR1st Quarter · 8:36 · 3-10

+36pp→ 71% WP

Collin Gillespie · blocks Ja'Kobe Walter 's 5-foot two point shot

TOR4th Quarter · 3:35 · 107-108

+34pp→ 57% WP

RJ Barrett · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)

PHX4th Quarter · 2:36 · 110-108

+17pp→ 60% WP

Royce O'Neale · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	28	34	30	23	115
TOR	30	29	27	36	122

Period scoring

PHX won 2 · TOR won 2

Green 9

Ingram 6

Booker 9

Walter 25

Booker 9

Ingram 13

Green 7

Barrett 11

PHX

TOR

Shooting comparison

PHX

TOR

48%

38-80

53%

46-86

43%

18-42

3PT

52%

14-27

70%

21-30

80%

16-20

Play-by-play · 479 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 115·TOR 122
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 115·TOR 122
Q4·0.4
Suns offensive team rebound
PHX 115·TOR 122
Q4·0.4
Jalen Green misses 36-foot turnaround jump shot
PHX 115·TOR 122
Q4·1.0
Immanuel Quickley makes running dunk
PHX 115·TOR 122
Q4·3.4
Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound
PHX 115·TOR 120
+0.8pp
Q4·6.2
Royce O'Neale misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 115·TOR 120
+4pp
Q4·12.4
Scottie Barnes out of bounds lost ball turnover
PHX 115·TOR 120
−2pp
Q4·17.6
Devin Booker makes 1-foot two point shot
PHX 115·TOR 120
−1pp
Q4·22.8
Ja'Kobe Walter makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 113·TOR 120
−0.9pp
Q4·22.8
Ja'Kobe Walter makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 113·TOR 119
Q4·22.8
Jordan Goodwin personal take foul
PHX 113·TOR 118
+3pp
Q4·23.8
Devin Booker makes free throw 3 of 3
PHX 113·TOR 118
+3pp
Q4·23.8
Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 3
PHX 112·TOR 118
−3pp
Q4·23.8
Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 3
PHX 111·TOR 118
Q4·23.8
RJ Barrett shooting foul
PHX 110·TOR 118
−2pp
Q4·28.3
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 110·TOR 118
−0.7pp
Q4·28.3
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 110·TOR 117
Q4·28.3
Grayson Allen personal foul
PHX 110·TOR 116
+2pp
Q4·28.3
Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
PHX 110·TOR 116
+0.8pp
Q4·31.0
Jalen Green misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 110·TOR 116
+2pp
Q4·34.8
Suns Full timeout
PHX 110·TOR 116
Q4·34.8
RJ Barrett makes dunk (Scottie Barnes assists)
·
PHX 110·TOR 116
+4pp
Q4·40.2
Ja'Kobe Walter defensive rebound
PHX 110·TOR 114
+2pp
Q4·43.0
Scottie Barnes blocks Jalen Green 's 2-foot driving dunk
·
PHX 110·TOR 114
−0.9pp
Q4·49.1
(00:49.1) [Raptors] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Raptors] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHX 110·TOR 114
+7pp
Q4·49.1
Raptors Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHX 110·TOR 114
+13pp
Q4·49.1
Scottie Barnes personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 110·TOR 114
−15pp
Q4·58.7
Brandon Ingram makes 12-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 110·TOR 114
+7pp
Q4·1:21
Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Haywood Highsmith
·
PHX 110·TOR 112

Betting line

TOR -5.5·O/U 221.5·PHX +170/TOR -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors held off Phoenix Suns, 122–115.

TOR -5.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 221.5 OVER by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

TOR

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.5%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.1%

112.2

PPG

114.9

▶

114.3

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

13.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR