NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12LAL

CHI

27-39

130142

LAL

41-25

NBAThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesLAL win series 2-0VegasLAL -10.5

CHI · top performer

Josh Giddey

G · #3

28.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

46.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:15

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SmithF · #25	30	14	5-11	2-5	2-2	-18	4	0
M. BuzelisF · #14	35	22	7-19	4-11	4-5	-25	6	1
L. MillerF · #33	31	15	6-9	1-3	2-2	-11	9	1
T. JonesG · #30	32	18	8-16	0-2	2-2	-14	4	6
J. GiddeyG · #3	40	27	10-17	6-9	1-2	-8	8	15
Bench
N. RichardsC · #13	26	15	7-9	0-1	1-1	-7	4	1
L. OlbrichC · #47	6	4	2-2	—	—	+6	0	1
R. DillinghamG · #7	29	12	5-10	1-3	1-2	+10	5	7
Y. KawamuraG · #8	10	3	1-2	1-2	—	+7	1	2
Team		130	51-95	15-36	13-16		41	34
DNP: G. Yabusele, I. Okoro, C. Sexton

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	33	18	7-13	0-2	4-6	+12	7	7
R. HachimuraF · #28	40	15	6-10	3-5	—	+16	1	1
D. AytonC · #5	37	23	10-13	—	3-6	+9	10	1
L. DoncicG · #77	37	51	17-31	9-14	8-9	+15	10	9
A. ReavesG · #15	39	30	13-20	4-7	—	+18	5	7
Bench
J. VanderbiltF · #2	10	0	—	—	—	-3	2	1
D. TimmeF · #17	4	2	1-2	0-1	—	-7	2	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	21	0	0-3	0-2	—	+13	3	3
L. KennardG · #10	20	3	1-7	1-5	—	-13	1	2
Team		142	55-99	17-36	15-21		41	31
DNP: D. Knecht, A. Thiero, K. Bufkin, B. James

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

51-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

55-99

FG %

15-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-36

13-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL win series 2-0

Jan 27

LAL129@

CHI118

Mar 13

CHI130@

LAL142today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

240.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+42519%

LAL-57585%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -10.5↗SpreadBet LAL -10.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

240.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat CHI 142-130. L. Doncic led the way with 51 points and 10 rebounds.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 31 REB · 23 AST

GS 83

Bench(4)

34 PTS · 10 REB · 11 AST

GS 28

LALstarters 96% of pts

Starters(5)

137 PTS · 33 REB · 25 AST

GS 123

Bench(4)

5 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST

GS 6

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI2nd Quarter · 6:12 · 45-39

+7pp→ 47% WP

Rob Dillingham · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)

CHI2nd Quarter · 5:15 · 50-43

+7pp→ 51% WP

Jalen Smith · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)

CHI2nd Quarter · 4:53 · 53-46

+7pp→ 51% WP

Jalen Smith · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	26	36	36	32	130
LAL	26	41	41	34	142

Period scoring

CHI won 0 · LAL won 3

Giddey 9

Doncic 12

Buzelis 10

Ayton 12

Giddey 13

Doncic 23

Jones 8

Reaves 13

CHI

LAL

Shooting comparison

CHI

LAL

54%

51-95

56%

55-99

42%

15-36

3PT

47%

17-36

81%

13-16

71%

15-21

Play-by-play · 483 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 130·LAL 142
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 130·LAL 142
Q4·9.7
shot clock turnover
CHI 130·LAL 142
Q4·33.7
Leonard Miller makes running layup
CHI 130·LAL 142
Q4·38.4
Leonard Miller defensive rebound
CHI 128·LAL 142
Q4·41.3
Luke Kennard misses 27-foot running jump shot
CHI 128·LAL 142
Q4·45.5
Lachlan Olbrich bad pass turnover (Luke Kennard steals)
·
CHI 128·LAL 142
Q4·56.0
Austin Reaves makes driving layup
CHI 128·LAL 142
Q4·1:12
Leonard Miller makes driving layup
CHI 128·LAL 140
Q4·1:12
Leonard Miller offensive rebound
CHI 126·LAL 140
Q4·1:16
Yuki Kawamura misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHI 126·LAL 140
Q4·1:28
Austin Reaves makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot
CHI 126·LAL 140
Q4·1:41
Rob Dillingham makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 126·LAL 138
Q4·1:41
Luke Kennard enters the game for Luka Doncic
·
CHI 125·LAL 138
Q4·1:41
Jake LaRavia enters the game for LeBron James
· ·
CHI 125·LAL 138
Q4·1:41
Bulls offensive team rebound
CHI 125·LAL 138
Q4·1:41
Rob Dillingham misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 125·LAL 138
Q4·1:41
Luka Doncic personal take foul
CHI 125·LAL 138
Q4·1:44
Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 125·LAL 138
Q4·1:44
Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 125·LAL 137
Q4·1:44
Rob Dillingham shooting foul
CHI 125·LAL 136
Q4·1:50
Lachlan Olbrich makes running layup (Yuki Kawamura assists)
·
CHI 125·LAL 136
Q4·1:53
Nick Richards defensive rebound
CHI 123·LAL 136
Q4·1:56
LeBron James misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
CHI 123·LAL 136
Q4·2:15
Lachlan Olbrich makes 19-foot jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)
·
CHI 123·LAL 136
Q4·2:25
Leonard Miller defensive rebound
CHI 121·LAL 136
Q4·2:29
Rui Hachimura misses 22-foot three point jumper
CHI 121·LAL 136
Q4·2:45
Rob Dillingham makes 2-foot two point shot
CHI 121·LAL 136
Q4·2:55
Rob Dillingham defensive rebound
CHI 119·LAL 136
Q4·2:56
Lachlan Olbrich blocks Luka Doncic 's 5-foot driving layup
·
CHI 119·LAL 136

Betting line

LAL -10.5·O/U 240.5·CHI +425/LAL -575

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Chicago Bulls, 142–130.

LAL -10.5 cashed (won by 12). Total cleared the 240.5 OVER by 31.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Josh GiddeyCHI · G
TOUCHES94.199
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Austin ReavesLAL · G
TOUCHES81.897
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

LAL

54.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

46.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

116.3

PPG

◀

114.9

114.8

28.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR