NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2OKC

BOS

43-23

102104

OKC

52-15

NBAThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesOKC leads series 1-0VegasOKC -8.5

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

21.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

35.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 36pp · 4th Quarter · 0.8

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	27	8	3-10	2-8	—	-6	4	1
N. QuetaC · #88	27	4	1-4	—	2-2	-11	10	0
J. BrownG · #7	41	34	10-25	1-4	13-14	-10	6	7
P. PritchardG · #11	39	14	6-17	2-9	—	-7	4	4
B. ScheiermanG · #55	34	11	4-10	3-8	—	-9	7	5
Bench
L. GarzaC · #52	21	7	2-6	1-5	2-2	+9	4	0
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	12	5	2-4	1-3	—	+15	1	1
J. WalshG · #27	13	8	3-4	2-3	—	+12	3	1
H. GonzalezG · #28	28	11	4-7	1-2	2-2	-3	5	1
Team		102	35-87	13-42	19-20		44	20
DNP: A. Williams, D. White, M. Shulga

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. HolmgrenC · #7	28	14	5-10	1-4	3-3	+2	9	0
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	39	35	13-18	2-5	7-8	+14	6	9
L. DortG · #5	29	6	2-8	2-8	—	+8	6	1
C. WallaceG · #22	31	4	2-8	0-4	—	-2	3	3
A. MitchellG · #25	30	15	6-10	1-3	2-3	-1	4	6
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	20	9	3-5	3-5	—	0	2	1
A. CarusoG · #9	23	7	3-11	1-8	—	+6	4	2
I. JoeG · #11	13	2	1-2	0-1	0-1	+1	1	0
A. WigginsG · #21	15	9	4-6	0-2	1-2	-8	3	0
J. McCainG · #3	12	3	1-6	1-4	—	-10	1	0
Team		104	40-84	11-44	13-17		39	22
DNP: P. Sandfort, K. Williams

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

35-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-84

FG %

13-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-44

19-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC leads series 1-0

Mar 13

BOS102@

OKC104today

Mar 25

OKC109@

BOS119

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

216.5

Defensive · -9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+27527%

OKC-34578%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -8.5↗SpreadBet OKC -8.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

216.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat BOS 104-102. S. Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 35 points and 9 assists. Sam Hauser's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 31 REB · 17 AST

GS 52

Bench(4)

31 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST

GS 27

OKCstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 28 REB · 19 AST

GS 65

Bench(5)

30 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST

GS 16

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

OKC4th Quarter · 5:00 · 91-91

+19pp→ 71% WP

Neemias Queta · shooting foul

OKC4th Quarter · 36.9 · 100-100

+21pp→ 74% WP

Jaylen Brown · personal foul

OKC4th Quarter · 0.8 · 102-102

+36pp→ 86% WP

Sam Hauser · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	28	31	24	19	102
OKC	27	29	24	24	104

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · OKC won 1

Brown 8

Gilgeous-Alexander 10

Walsh 8

Wiggins 7

Brown 14

Wallace 4

Brown 11

Gilgeous-Alexander 14

BOS

OKC

Shooting comparison

BOS

OKC

40%

35-87

48%

40-84

31%

13-42

3PT

25%

11-44

95%

19-20

76%

13-17

Play-by-play · 457 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 102·OKC 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 102·OKC 104
Q4·0.1
Celtics offensive team rebound
BOS 102·OKC 104
Q4·0.3
Payton Pritchard misses 32-foot three point jumper
BOS 102·OKC 104
+2pp
Q4·0.8
Ron Harper Jr. enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
BOS 102·OKC 104
Q4·0.8
Celtics Full timeout
BOS 102·OKC 104
Q4·0.8
Chet Holmgren makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 102·OKC 104
−0.9pp
Q4·0.8
Neemias Queta enters the game for Ron Harper Jr.
·
BOS 102·OKC 103
Q4·0.8
Chet Holmgren makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
BOS 102·OKC 103
+12pp
Q4·0.8
Sam Hauser shooting foulBIG MOMENT
BOS 102·OKC 102
+36pp
Q4·0.8
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
BOS 102·OKC 102
+0.9pp
Q4·2.9
Alex Caruso misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
BOS 102·OKC 102
−6pp
Q4·22.6
Jaylen Brown makes 19-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 102·OKC 102
−12pp
Q4·29.6
Jaylen Brown enters the game for Hugo Gonzalez
·
BOS 100·OKC 102
Q4·29.6
Ron Harper Jr. enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
BOS 100·OKC 102
Q4·29.6
Cason Wallace enters the game for Ajay Mitchell
·
BOS 100·OKC 102
Q4·29.6
Celtics Full timeout
BOS 100·OKC 102
Q4·30.1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 15-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 100·OKC 102
+11pp
Q4·36.9
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Jaylen Brown
·
BOS 100·OKC 100
Q4·36.9
Thunder Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
BOS 100·OKC 100
−18pp
Q4·36.9
Jaylen Brown personal foulBIG MOMENT
BOS 100·OKC 100
+21pp
Q4·50.6
Jaylen Brown makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
BOS 100·OKC 100
+5pp
Q4·50.6
Jaylen Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 99·OKC 100
−2pp
Q4·50.6
Luguentz Dort personal foulBIG MOMENT
BOS 98·OKC 100
−14pp
Q4·1:04
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 14-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 98·OKC 100
+10pp
Q4·1:20
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
BOS 98·OKC 98
+2pp
Q4·1:24
Payton Pritchard misses 14-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 98·OKC 98
+6pp
Q4·1:45
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
BOS 98·OKC 98
−2pp
Q4·1:47
Alex Caruso misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
BOS 98·OKC 98
−8pp
Q4·2:10
Payton Pritchard makes 20-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 98·OKC 98
−9pp

Betting line

OKC -8.5·O/U 216.5·BOS +275/OKC -345

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder held off Boston Celtics, 104–102. Decided by 2.

BOS +8.5 cashed (OKC won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 216.5 by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

OKC

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.2%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

118.5

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.8

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR