MIL
27-38
MIA
38-29
MIL · top performer
Giannis Antetokounmpo
F · #34
31
Pts
6
Reb
3
Ast
MIA · top performer
Pelle Larsson
G · #9
28
Pts
6
Reb
6
Ast
Biggest swing: 18pp · 4th Quarter · 6:37
NBA · Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 29 | 31 | 12-24 | 0-2 | 7-11 | -8 | 6 | 3 | |
| 20 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-4 | — | -10 | 3 | 1 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | -24 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 7 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 2-2 | -16 | 4 | 2 | |
| 28 | 6 | 3-8 | 0-1 | — | -12 | 7 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 15 | 8 | 3-6 | 2-3 | — | +10 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 19 | 8-14 | 2-4 | 1-1 | +8 | 5 | 1 | |
| 22 | 7 | 3-3 | — | 1-1 | +2 | 4 | 2 | |
| 15 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | +5 | 0 | 2 | |
| 16 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | +1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 33 | 16 | 6-9 | 2-4 | 2-2 | +9 | 5 | 10 | |
| Team | 105 | 41-83 | 9-26 | 14-19 | 36 | 26 | ||
| DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, P. Nance, G. Harris, G. Trent Jr. | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 21 | 6-20 | 0-5 | 9-13 | +11 | 8 | 2 | |
| 28 | 6 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | +11 | 13 | 1 | |
| 27 | 13 | 5-9 | 3-5 | — | +13 | 5 | 5 | |
| 38 | 28 | 9-14 | 2-3 | 8-8 | +13 | 6 | 6 | |
| 35 | 18 | 6-12 | 5-11 | 1-1 | +18 | 7 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 15 | 8 | 3-9 | 2-6 | — | -15 | 2 | 1 | |
| 9 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | -4 | 4 | 0 | |
| 32 | 6 | 2-11 | 0-5 | 2-2 | -6 | 4 | 7 | |
| 21 | 9 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 1-1 | -6 | 4 | 2 | |
| Team | 112 | 38-92 | 14-41 | 22-27 | 53 | 26 | ||
| DNP: K. Johnson, N. Jovic, V. Goldin, N. Powell, T. Herro, T. Keels | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
41
26
Ast
26
Team stats
MIL
Away
Stat
MIA
Home
41-83
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
38-92
49
FG %
41
9-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-41
14-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-27
26
Assists
26
14
Turnovers
11
Season series
MIA wins series 2-1
MIL103@MIA106MIA117@MIL128MIL105@MIA112todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIA -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
233.5
High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIL+18036%MIA-21869%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
233.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIA beat MIL 112-105. P. Larsson paced them with 28 PTS, 6 REB, 6 AST. MIA outscored the other side 31-21 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIA vs MIL
Starters vs bench
production by unitMILstarters 47% of ptsStarters(5)
49 PTS · 20 REB · 11 AST
GS 30
Bench(6)
56 PTS · 16 REB · 15 AST
GS 47
MIAstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
86 PTS · 39 REB · 16 AST
GS 73
Bench(4)
26 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSimone Fontecchio · misses 24-foot three point jumper
Myron Gardner · bad pass turnover (Taurean Prince steals)
Pelle Larsson · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 21 | 30 | 26 | 28 | 105 |
| MIA | 31 | 28 | 26 | 27 | 112 |
Period scoring
MIL won 2 · MIA won 1
Q1
Antetokounmpo 10
Jakucionis 9
Q2
Antetokounmpo 8
Fontecchio 6
Q3
Portis 9
Prince 10
Q4
Antetokounmpo 7
Jr. 20
Shooting comparison
49%
41-83
FG
41%
38-92
35%
9-26
3PT
34%
14-41
74%
14-19
FT
81%
22-27
Play-by-play · 469 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 105·MIA 112
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 105·MIA 112
- Q4·7.3
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
MIL 105·MIA 112
- Q4·11.7
Ryan Rollins misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIL 105·MIA 112
+0.9pp
- Q4·16.2
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
·
MIL 105·MIA 112
- Q4·18.5
Bam Adebayo misses free throw 2 of 2
MIL 105·MIA 112
−1pp
- Q4·18.5
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 105·MIA 112
- Q4·18.5
Kevin Porter Jr. personal foul
MIL 105·MIA 111
+0.8pp
- Q4·18.8
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
MIL 105·MIA 111
+0.9pp
- Q4·23.2
Bobby Portis misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIL 105·MIA 111
+2pp
- Q4·27.0
AJ Green enters the game for Jericho Sims
·
MIL 105·MIA 111
- Q4·27.0
Bucks Full timeout
MIL 105·MIA 111
- Q4·27.9
Pelle Larsson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIL 105·MIA 111
+10pp
- Q4·49.2
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
MIL 105·MIA 108
+3pp
- Q4·51.9
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
MIL 105·MIA 108
+7pp
- Q4·58.5
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
MIL 105·MIA 108
−2pp
- Q4·1:02
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIL 105·MIA 108
−6pp
- Q4·1:23
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes driving layup
·
MIL 105·MIA 108
−5pp
- Q4·1:33
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 103·MIA 108
- Q4·1:33
Heat offensive team rebound
MIL 103·MIA 107
−3pp
- Q4·1:33
Bam Adebayo misses free throw 1 of 2
MIL 103·MIA 107
−2pp
- Q4·1:33
Jericho Sims loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 103·MIA 107
+6pp
- Q4·1:33
Heat offensive team rebound
MIL 103·MIA 107
+5pp
- Q4·1:33
Pelle Larsson misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIL 103·MIA 107
−4pp
- Q4·1:44
Ryan Rollins makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 103·MIA 107
+5pp
- Q4·1:44
Ryan Rollins makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 102·MIA 107
−1pp
- Q4·1:44
Kasparas Jakucionis personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 101·MIA 107
−7pp
- Q4·1:53
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 101·MIA 107
−3pp
- Q4·1:53
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 101·MIA 106
+0.7pp
- Q4·1:53
Bobby Portis shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 101·MIA 105
+6pp
Betting line
MIA -5.5·O/U 233.5·MIL +180/MIA -218
Recap · NBA
iami Heat held off Milwaukee Bucks, 112–105.
MIA -5.5 cashed (won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 16.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Jericho SimsMIL · CTS%77.299+- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · FUSG%36.699+
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · GDRIVES16.799
Myles TurnerMIL · CCONT8.195
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · FDRIVES13.295
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIA vs MIL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
150
projections · 125 high confidence
Points
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA25.0± 4.5high
- Ryan RollinsMIL19.5± 7.1high
- Tyler HerroMIL19.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA9.9± 4.4high
- Bobby PortisMIA6.2± 2.9high
Assists
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL6.9± 2.8high
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
- Ryan RollinsMIL5.5± 1.9high
Blocks
- Andrew WigginsMIA0.9± 0.9high
- Bam AdebayoMIA0.6± 0.7high
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL0.6± 0.7high
Steals
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL2.1± 1.4high
- Ryan RollinsMIL1.5± 1.1high
- Dru SmithMIA1.3± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIL
league avg
MIA
56.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
54.2%
47.7%
FG%
47.0
46.8%
110.6
PPG
114.9
▶120.9
25.8
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.0
14.5
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.0