NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+15PHX

PHX

39-27

123108

IND

15-51

NBAThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesPHX wins series 2-0VegasPHX -9.5

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

31.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Andrew Nembhard

G · #2

22.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 8pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:26

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	28	15	5-8	5-8	—	0	3	1
O. IghodaroF · #11	25	6	2-4	—	2-4	+9	5	4
D. BookerG · #1	35	43	14-31	4-7	11-11	0	7	5
C. GillespieG · #12	28	4	2-6	0-2	—	+14	7	5
J. GreenG · #4	34	36	14-23	3-9	5-7	+16	3	4
Bench
I. LiversF · #18	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
R. DunnF · #0	17	5	2-2	1-1	—	-8	2	1
R. FlemingF · #20	23	2	1-4	0-1	—	+16	5	1
K. MaluachC · #10	14	4	2-2	—	—	+1	3	0
A. CoffeyG · #2	13	2	1-1	—	—	+15	1	0
J. GoodwinG · #23	18	6	3-5	0-2	—	+13	4	0
J. BouyeaG · #17	4	0	0-2	0-2	—	-3	0	0
Team		123	46-88	13-32	18-22		40	21
DNP: H. Highsmith

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. WalkerF · #5	26	12	3-6	1-2	5-6	-14	6	2
I. ZubacC · #40	16	8	4-6	—	—	-3	6	2
E. ThompsonG · #55	38	11	4-11	2-7	1-1	-3	2	2
A. NembhardG · #2	17	23	6-7	2-2	9-10	0	0	2
K. BrownG · #24	18	7	3-9	1-6	—	-20	2	2
Bench
J. SlawsonF · #18	32	10	3-9	1-5	3-4	+6	8	5
J. HuffC · #32	14	10	5-11	0-4	—	-8	2	0
M. PotterC · #11	16	8	2-4	0-1	4-4	-5	4	1
B. SheppardG · #26	13	10	4-5	2-3	—	0	2	1
K. JonesG · #7	26	3	1-8	1-4	—	-11	1	6
T. PeterG · #4	24	6	2-6	2-6	—	-17	3	1
Team		108	37-82	12-40	22-25		36	24
DNP: O. Toppin, T.J. McConnell, A. Nesmith

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

IND

Home

46-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-82

FG %

13-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-40

18-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX wins series 2-0

Nov 14

IND98@

PHX133

Mar 12

PHX123@

IND108today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX-41080%

IND+32024%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -9.5↗SpreadBet PHX -9.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat IND 123-108. D. Booker led the way with 43 points and 7 rebounds.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

104 PTS · 25 REB · 19 AST

GS 85

Bench(7)

19 PTS · 15 REB · 2 AST

GS 19

INDstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST

GS 49

Bench(6)

47 PTS · 20 REB · 14 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX1st Quarter · 3:40 · 25-27

+7pp→ 64% WP

Jay Huff · misses 26-foot three point jumper

IND1st Quarter · 1:14 · 34-34

+7pp→ 31% WP

Ethan Thompson · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)

PHX3rd Quarter · 4:26 · 81-77

+8pp→ 78% WP

Jalen Slawson · misses 25-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	36	31	29	27	123
IND	36	25	27	20	108

Period scoring

PHX won 3 · IND won 0

Booker 15

Nembhard 11

Green 8

Nembhard 12

Booker 19

Sheppard 7

Green 17

Huff 26

PHX

IND

Shooting comparison

PHX

IND

52%

46-88

45%

37-82

41%

13-32

3PT

30%

12-40

82%

18-22

88%

22-25

Play-by-play · 478 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 123·IND 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 123·IND 108
Q4·23.0
shot clock turnover
PHX 123·IND 108
Q4·47.1
Jalen Slawson bad pass turnover (Amir Coffey steals)
·
PHX 123·IND 108
Q4·54.9
Ryan Dunn makes tip in dunk
PHX 123·IND 108
Q4·54.9
Ryan Dunn offensive rebound
PHX 121·IND 108
Q4·56.9
Jamaree Bouyea misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHX 121·IND 108
Q4·1:09
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
PHX 121·IND 108
Q4·1:09
Isaiah Livers enters the game for Collin Gillespie
·
PHX 121·IND 108
Q4·1:09
Jamaree Bouyea enters the game for Jalen Green
·
PHX 121·IND 108
Q4·1:09
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Devin Booker
·
PHX 121·IND 108
Q4·1:09
Pacers Full timeout
PHX 121·IND 108
Q4·1:09
Kam Jones personal take foul
PHX 121·IND 108
Q4·1:12
Collin Gillespie offensive rebound
PHX 121·IND 108
Q4·1:16
Devin Booker misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHX 121·IND 108
Q4·1:38
Collin Gillespie defensive rebound
PHX 121·IND 108
Q4·1:41
Jalen Slawson misses 26-foot three point jumper
PHX 121·IND 108
Q4·1:48
Jalen Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)
·
PHX 121·IND 108
−0.7pp
Q4·2:09
Jalen Slawson steps out of bounds turnover
PHX 118·IND 108
−0.6pp
Q4·2:09
Jalen Slawson offensive rebound
PHX 118·IND 108
Q4·2:11
Taelon Peter misses running pullup jump shot
PHX 118·IND 108
−0.5pp
Q4·2:15
Jalen Green bad pass turnover (Ethan Thompson steals)
·
PHX 118·IND 108
+0.6pp
Q4·2:21
Ethan Thompson personal foul
PHX 118·IND 108
Q4·2:31
Jalen Slawson makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 118·IND 108
−0.6pp
Q4·2:31
Jalen Slawson makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 118·IND 107
Q4·2:31
Oso Ighodaro shooting foul
PHX 118·IND 106
+0.9pp
Q4·2:32
Jalen Slawson offensive rebound
PHX 118·IND 106
Q4·2:33
Devin Booker blocks Jalen Slawson 's 4-foot driving layup
·
PHX 118·IND 106
Q4·2:49
Jalen Green makes 13-foot fade away jump shot
PHX 118·IND 106
−0.7pp
Q4·3:01
Jalen Green defensive rebound
PHX 116·IND 106

Betting line

PHX -9.5·O/U 222.5·PHX -410/IND +320

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 123–108.

PHX -9.5 cashed (won by 15). Total cleared the 222.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Ivica ZubacIND · C
CONT9.298
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Mark WilliamsPHX
7.2± 2.3high
Micah PotterIND
6.1± 4.5high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.0± 1.4medium
Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

IND

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.3%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

45.8%

112.2

PPG

114.9

112.4

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.7

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR