NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+22DET

PHI

35-31

109131

DET

47-18

NBAThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesDET leads series 3-0VegasDET -14.5

PHI · top performer

Justin Edwards

F · #11

15.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Duncan Robinson

F · #55

18.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 11:20

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. WatfordF · #12	20	4	2-5	0-1	—	-20	2	1
J. EdwardsF · #11	29	12	5-11	0-2	2-4	-5	9	5
D. BarlowF · #25	26	11	5-10	1-3	—	-16	4	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	32	14	5-14	1-8	3-6	-28	3	5
V. EdgecombeG · #77	29	10	3-14	0-5	4-4	-19	5	0
Bench
M. BeauchampF · #16	31	17	7-13	2-7	1-1	-1	6	2
J. WalkerF · #33	18	16	6-6	2-2	2-2	-5	1	2
D. TerryF · #14	23	8	3-6	0-1	2-3	+1	3	2
C. PaynePG · #20	19	15	5-10	2-6	3-4	-9	1	2
K. LowryG · #7	4	0	—	—	—	-10	0	0
T. MartinG · #23	9	2	1-1	—	—	+2	1	1
Team		109	42-90	8-35	17-24		35	20
DNP: A. Drummond

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	22	15	6-11	2-3	1-1	+18	5	2
D. RobinsonF · #55	25	19	7-10	5-7	—	+18	2	4
J. DurenC · #0	15	14	6-7	—	2-3	+21	10	2
M. SasserG · #25	23	6	2-9	1-4	1-1	+23	0	3
C. CunninghamG · #2	28	8	3-6	0-2	2-2	+27	5	13
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	12	6	3-5	—	—	-8	2	1
I. StewartF · #28	21	13	5-5	—	3-3	+9	5	4
R. Holland IIF · #5	25	15	4-7	0-3	7-7	-7	3	0
J. GreenG · #31	19	17	5-8	4-6	3-3	+20	2	1
K. HuerterG · #27	26	12	4-13	2-7	2-2	+7	4	4
C. LanierG · #20	5	0	0-3	0-2	—	-13	0	0
D. JenkinsG · #24	20	6	3-5	0-1	—	-5	2	3
Team		131	48-89	14-35	21-22		40	37

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

DET

Home

42-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-89

FG %

8-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-35

17-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET leads series 3-0

Nov 10

DET111@

PHI108

Nov 15

PHI105@

DET114

Mar 12

PHI109@

DET131today

Apr 4

DET116@

PHI93

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+67513%

DET-105091%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -14.5↗SpreadBet DET -14.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat PHI 131-109. D. Robinson led with 19 PTS, 2 REB, 4 AST. DET outscored the other side 35-21 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 47% of pts

Starters(5)

51 PTS · 23 REB · 11 AST

GS 37

Bench(6)

58 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 46

DETstarters 47% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 22 REB · 24 AST

GS 61

Bench(7)

69 PTS · 18 REB · 13 AST

GS 58

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI1st Quarter · 11:20 · 0-2

+7pp→ 17% WP

Tobias Harris · lost ball turnover (Justin Edwards steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	27	33	21	28	109
DET	36	33	35	27	131

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · DET won 2

Walker 7

Jenkins 26

Beauchamp 10

Huerter 6

Payne 6

Duren 9

Walker 7

Huerter 6

PHI

DET

Shooting comparison

PHI

DET

47%

42-90

54%

48-89

23%

8-35

3PT

40%

14-35

71%

17-24

95%

21-22

Play-by-play · 462 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 109·DET 131
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 109·DET 131
Q4·13.8
Dalen Terry makes driving layup
PHI 109·DET 131
Q4·20.8
Dalen Terry defensive rebound
PHI 107·DET 131
Q4·25.2
Chaz Lanier misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHI 107·DET 131
Q4·27.0
Paul Reed offensive rebound
PHI 107·DET 131
Q4·29.9
Dalen Terry blocks Chaz Lanier 's 1-foot driving layup
·
PHI 107·DET 131
Q4·49.0
Pistons defensive team rebound
PHI 107·DET 131
Q4·49.0
Paul Reed blocks Justin Edwards's tip shot
·
PHI 107·DET 131
Q4·49.0
Justin Edwards offensive rebound
PHI 107·DET 131
Q4·52.3
MarJon Beauchamp misses 26-foot three point jumper
PHI 107·DET 131
Q4·53.8
Tyrese Martin offensive rebound
PHI 107·DET 131
Q4·55.5
Justin Edwards misses free throw 2 of 2
PHI 107·DET 131
Q4·55.5
76ers offensive team rebound
PHI 107·DET 131
Q4·55.5
Justin Edwards misses free throw 1 of 2
PHI 107·DET 131
Q4·55.5
Paul Reed shooting foul
PHI 107·DET 131
Q4·1:05
Paul Reed makes 1-foot driving dunk (Kevin Huerter assists)
·
PHI 107·DET 131
Q4·1:15
Kevin Huerter defensive rebound
PHI 107·DET 129
Q4·1:18
MarJon Beauchamp misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
PHI 107·DET 129
Q4·1:24
76ers offensive team rebound
PHI 107·DET 129
Q4·1:24
Paul Reed blocks Justin Edwards 's 9-foot driving floating jump shot
·
PHI 107·DET 129
Q4·1:39
Kevin Huerter loose ball foul
PHI 107·DET 129
Q4·1:39
76ers defensive team rebound
PHI 107·DET 129
Q4·1:40
Kevin Huerter misses driving layup
PHI 107·DET 129
Q4·2:05
Jabari Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (MarJon Beauchamp assists)
·
PHI 107·DET 129
Q4·2:19
Ronald Holland II makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 104·DET 129
Q4·2:19
Ronald Holland II makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 104·DET 128
Q4·2:19
76ers Full timeout
PHI 104·DET 127
Q4·2:19
Jabari Walker shooting foul
PHI 104·DET 127
Q4·2:32
MarJon Beauchamp makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot
PHI 104·DET 127

Betting line

DET -14.5·O/U 224.5·PHI +675/DET -1050

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons held off Philadelphia 76ers, 131–109. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DET -14.5 cashed (won by 22). Total cleared the 224.5 OVER by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Paul ReedDET · F
TS%65.092
VJ EdgecombePHI · G
TOUCHES66.190
Duncan RobinsonDET · F
TS%62.985

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
Ausar ThompsonDET
7.1± 3.2high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Joel EmbiidPHI
4.6± 2.6high

Blocks

Ausar ThompsonDET
1.5± 1.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Ausar ThompsonDET
2.0± 1.8high
Paul GeorgePHI
1.5± 1.1high
Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

DET

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.2%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

115.9

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.0

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR