NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14LAL

MIN

40-25

106120

LAL

40-25

NBATue, Mar 10FinalSeriesLAL win series 3-0VegasMIN -2.5

MIN · top performer

Bones Hyland

G · #8

11.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

27.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 9:13

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	26	14	5-11	1-5	3-3	-11	7	2
J. McDanielsF · #3	26	6	3-9	0-5	—	-10	2	0
R. GobertC · #27	27	3	0-1	—	3-6	-11	12	2
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	32	8	3-9	2-6	—	-15	5	2
A. EdwardsG · #5	31	14	2-15	1-10	9-10	-15	2	4
Bench
J. InglesF · #7	4	0	—	—	—	+5	0	1
K. AndersonF · #12	15	5	2-2	—	1-2	-6	6	3
J. PhillipsF · #4	4	2	1-1	—	—	+5	1	1
J. BeringerF · #19	4	0	—	—	—	+5	0	1
N. ReidC · #11	25	13	6-11	1-5	—	-12	6	1
A. DosunmuG · #13	20	13	6-8	0-2	1-2	-12	2	1
J. ClarkG · #22	4	5	2-2	1-1	—	+5	0	0
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	8	12	4-6	2-2	2-2	+4	0	1
B. HylandG · #8	16	11	3-5	2-4	3-3	-2	0	3
Team		106	37-80	10-40	22-28		43	22
DNP: M. Conley

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. HachimuraF · #28	24	9	4-8	1-4	—	+3	1	1
D. AytonC · #5	34	14	7-11	—	0-2	+10	12	2
M. SmartG · #36	31	8	3-7	1-4	1-1	+14	2	1
L. DoncicG · #77	35	31	11-24	4-12	5-6	+20	11	11
A. ReavesG · #15	38	31	10-20	4-10	7-9	+18	7	8
Bench
J. VanderbiltF · #2	15	4	2-5	0-2	—	-1	4	1
D. TimmeF · #17	3	3	1-1	1-1	—	-1	0	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	25	8	1-7	0-2	6-8	+13	7	4
D. KnechtF · #4	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
A. ThieroF · #1	2	0	—	—	—	-2	1	0
L. KennardG · #10	26	10	5-8	0-2	—	+2	2	2
K. BufkinG · #18	2	2	1-2	0-1	—	-2	0	0
B. JamesG · #9	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	1
Team		120	45-93	11-38	19-26		47	31
DNP: M. Kleber, J. Hayes

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

37-80

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-93

FG %

10-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-38

22-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL win series 3-0

Oct 25

MIN110@

LAL128

Oct 30

LAL116@

MIN115

Mar 11

MIN106@

LAL120today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-14259%

LAL+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -2.5↗SpreadBet MIN -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat MIN 120-106. L. Doncic stuffed the line with 31 PTS, 11 REB, and 11 AST. LAL outscored the other side 39-23 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 42% of pts

Starters(5)

45 PTS · 28 REB · 10 AST

GS 27

Bench(9)

61 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST

GS 54

LALstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 33 REB · 23 AST

GS 81

Bench(8)

27 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN2nd Quarter · 8:02 · 30-26

+6pp→ 65% WP

Donte DiVincenzo · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bones Hyland assists)

LAL2nd Quarter · 5.0 · 45-45

+7pp→ 44% WP

Rui Hachimura · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)

LAL3rd Quarter · 9:13 · 48-54

+7pp→ 67% WP

Luka Doncic · makes 22-foot three point shot (Jake LaRavia assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	21	24	23	38	106
LAL	16	29	39	36	120

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · LAL won 2

Randle 6

Smart 5

DiVincenzo 6

Ayton 12

Edwards 11

Reaves 16

Jr. 12

Reaves 13

MIN

LAL

Shooting comparison

MIN

LAL

46%

37-80

48%

45-93

25%

10-40

3PT

29%

11-38

79%

22-28

73%

19-26

Play-by-play · 471 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 106·LAL 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 106·LAL 120
Q4·1.1
shot clock turnover
MIN 106·LAL 120
Q4·25.9
Jaylen Clark makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)
·
MIN 106·LAL 120
Q4·36.6
Drew Timme makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bronny James assists)
·
MIN 103·LAL 120
Q4·52.0
Julian Phillips makes 8-foot two point shot
MIN 103·LAL 117
Q4·59.3
Julian Phillips defensive rebound
MIN 101·LAL 117
Q4·1:02
Kobe Bufkin misses 22-foot three point jumper
MIN 101·LAL 117
Q4·1:15
Adou Thiero defensive rebound
MIN 101·LAL 117
Q4·1:18
Terrence Shannon Jr. misses 18-foot step back jumpshot
MIN 101·LAL 117
Q4·1:30
Kobe Bufkin makes driving layup
MIN 101·LAL 117
Q4·1:37
Jaylen Clark makes running layup (Julian Phillips assists)
·
MIN 101·LAL 115
Q4·1:42
Adou Thiero bad pass turnover (Julian Phillips steals)
·
MIN 99·LAL 115
Q4·1:58
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 99·LAL 115
Q4·1:58
Kobe Bufkin enters the game for Luke Kennard
·
MIN 98·LAL 115
Q4·1:58
Drew Timme enters the game for Marcus Smart
·
MIN 98·LAL 115
Q4·1:58
Bronny James enters the game for Rui Hachimura
·
MIN 98·LAL 115
Q4·1:58
Dalton Knecht enters the game for Austin Reaves
·
MIN 98·LAL 115
Q4·1:58
Adou Thiero enters the game for Deandre Ayton
·
MIN 98·LAL 115
Q4·1:58
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 98·LAL 115
Q4·1:58
Marcus Smart personal take foul
MIN 97·LAL 115
Q4·1:59
Austin Reaves makes 10-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 97·LAL 115
Q4·2:23
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot
MIN 97·LAL 113
Q4·2:35
Rui Hachimura makes 9-foot fade away jump shot (Austin Reaves assists)
·
MIN 95·LAL 113
Q4·3:02
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Joe Ingles assists)
·
MIN 95·LAL 111
Q4·3:15
Austin Reaves makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot
MIN 92·LAL 111
Q4·3:32
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 11-foot two point shot (Joan Beringer assists)
·
MIN 92·LAL 109
Q4·3:55
Joan Beringer enters the game for Anthony Edwards
·
MIN 90·LAL 109
Q4·3:55
Jaylen Clark enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
MIN 90·LAL 109
Q4·3:55
Joe Ingles enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu
·
MIN 90·LAL 109

Betting line

MIN -2.5·O/U 229.5·MIN -142/LAL +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Minnesota Timberwolves, 120–106.

LAL +2.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Austin ReavesLAL · G
TOUCHES81.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIN

league avg

LAL

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

47.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

116.8

PPG

◀

114.9

114.8

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

25.7

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR