NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5SAC

IND

15-50

109114

SAC

16-50

NBATue, Mar 10FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSAC -3.5

IND · top performer

Aaron Nesmith

G · #23

21.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Devin Carter

G · #22

21.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 2:07

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ToppinF · #1	15	17	4-9	2-5	7-9	+1	5	1
J. WalkerF · #5	39	8	3-10	1-4	1-1	-13	9	2
J. HuffC · #32	32	12	5-14	2-8	—	+3	7	3
A. NesmithG · #23	35	29	10-22	2-7	7-7	+6	4	3
K. JonesG · #7	27	14	5-9	4-7	—	-8	4	9
Bench
J. SlawsonF · #18	11	0	0-2	0-2	—	+14	3	3
M. PotterC · #11	16	11	5-9	0-2	1-1	-6	7	0
K. BrownG · #24	21	5	1-2	1-1	2-2	-11	4	0
B. SheppardG · #26	23	9	4-6	1-3	—	0	4	3
Q. JacksonG · #29	18	4	1-8	0-2	2-2	0	1	5
T. PeterG · #4	5	0	0-2	0-2	—	-11	0	0
Team		109	38-93	13-43	20-22		48	29
DNP: P. Siakam, T.J. McConnell, A. Nembhard

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	20	6	3-6	0-1	—	-7	7	0
M. RaynaudC · #42	34	18	8-15	—	2-2	+2	11	2
R. WestbrookG · #18	25	16	5-10	2-4	4-6	-7	7	9
D. DeRozanG · #10	24	12	4-13	—	4-4	-9	3	1
N. CliffordG · #5	38	12	5-12	0-2	2-4	+17	5	2
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	4	0	—	—	—	-6	0	0
D. EubanksF · #19	14	4	1-2	—	2-2	+3	4	1
M. MonkG · #0	11	4	2-4	0-2	—	-12	0	0
D. PlowdenG · #29	31	10	2-8	1-5	5-5	+8	6	0
D. CarterG · #22	16	24	9-13	3-4	3-3	+21	5	3
K. HayesG · #3	23	8	2-7	1-2	3-4	+15	4	4
Team		114	41-90	7-20	25-30		52	22
DNP: D. Cardwell

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

38-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-90

FG %

13-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-20

20-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 9

SAC105@

IND116

Mar 11

IND109@

SAC114today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SAC -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+13642%

SAC-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SAC -3.5↗SpreadBet SAC -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SAC beat IND 114-109. D. Carter led with 24 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 34-18 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 29 REB · 18 AST

GS 61

Bench(6)

29 PTS · 19 REB · 11 AST

GS 19

SACstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 33 REB · 14 AST

GS 51

Bench(6)

50 PTS · 19 REB · 8 AST

GS 45

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND4th Quarter · 4:01 · 101-99

+15pp→ 62% WP

Aaron Nesmith · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)

SAC4th Quarter · 3:09 · 101-104

+16pp→ 70% WP

Devin Carter · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Nique Clifford assists)

SAC4th Quarter · 2:07 · 103-107

+17pp→ 80% WP

Devin Carter · makes 26-foot three pointer

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	25	34	23	27	109
SAC	24	18	30	42	114

Period scoring

IND won 2 · SAC won 2

Nesmith 11

DeRozan 8

Nesmith 13

Raynaud 6

Toppin 9

Plowden 12

Jones 8

Carter 22

IND

SAC

Shooting comparison

IND

SAC

41%

38-93

46%

41-90

30%

13-43

3PT

35%

7-20

91%

20-22

83%

25-30

Play-by-play · 489 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of GameBIG MOMENT
IND 109·SAC 114
+12pp
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 109·SAC 114
Q4·1.8
Nique Clifford defensive rebound
IND 109·SAC 114
+0.5pp
Q4·4.8
Kam Jones misses 29-foot three point jumper
IND 109·SAC 114
+1pp
Q4·6.9
Jay Huff enters the game for Quenton Jackson
·
IND 109·SAC 114
Q4·6.9
Pacers Full timeout
IND 109·SAC 114
Q4·6.9
Nique Clifford makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 109·SAC 114
−0.8pp
Q4·6.9
Nique Clifford makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 109·SAC 113
Q4·6.9
Ben Sheppard personal take foul
IND 109·SAC 112
+4pp
Q4·8.6
Quenton Jackson enters the game for Jay Huff
·
IND 109·SAC 112
Q4·8.6
Kings Full timeout
IND 109·SAC 112
+0.6pp
Q4·9.5
Ben Sheppard makes tip shot
IND 109·SAC 112
−4pp
Q4·9.8
Ben Sheppard offensive rebound
IND 107·SAC 112
−1pp
Q4·10.5
Aaron Nesmith misses 27-foot three point jumper
IND 107·SAC 112
+2pp
Q4·11.8
Ben Sheppard offensive rebound
IND 107·SAC 112
−0.8pp
Q4·15.2
Jay Huff misses 28-foot three point jumper
IND 107·SAC 112
+2pp
Q4·16.7
Pacers Full timeout
IND 107·SAC 112
Q4·16.7
Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 1 of 1
IND 107·SAC 112
−2pp
Q4·16.7
Jay Huff shooting foulBIG MOMENT
IND 107·SAC 111
+8pp
Q4·16.7
Maxime Raynaud makes 6-foot two point shot (Devin Carter assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 107·SAC 111
+9pp
Q4·36.1
Ben Sheppard makes driving layup (Kam Jones assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 107·SAC 109
−5pp
Q4·38.8
Pacers offensive team rebound
IND 105·SAC 109
−4pp
Q4·42.3
Jay Huff misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
IND 105·SAC 109
+5pp
Q4·54.3
Maxime Raynaud out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
IND 105·SAC 109
−5pp
Q4·1:08
Jay Huff makes 3-foot driving dunk (Ben Sheppard assists)
·
IND 105·SAC 109
−3pp
Q4·1:14
Kam Jones defensive rebound
IND 103·SAC 109
−0.7pp
Q4·1:16
Devin Carter misses layup
IND 103·SAC 109
−2pp
Q4·1:34
Killian Hayes defensive rebound
IND 103·SAC 109
+0.8pp
Q4·1:36
Aaron Nesmith misses 26-foot three point jumper
IND 103·SAC 109
+3pp
Q4·1:46
Devin Carter makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 103·SAC 109
−3pp

Betting line

SAC -3.5·O/U 236.5·IND +136/SAC -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

acramento Kings held off Indiana Pacers, 114–109. Decided by 5.

SAC -3.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 236.5 by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692
Obi ToppinIND · F
TS%63.689

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high
Zach LaVineSAC
17.6± 7.7high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium
Pascal SiakamIND
1.2± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

SAC

53.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.7%

112.4

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.5

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR