NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CHA

CHA

33-33

103101

POR

31-35

NBATue, Mar 10FinalSeriesCHA wins series 2-0VegasCHA -3.5

CHA · top performer

Brandon Miller

F · #24

17.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Jerami Grant

F · #9

19.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 32pp · 4th Quarter · 12.8

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	33	11	2-13	0-4	7-8	-3	7	3
M. DiabateF · #14	31	7	3-8	—	1-2	+1	9	4
B. MillerF · #24	37	23	7-18	3-7	6-6	-3	9	4
L. BallG · #1	22	14	6-16	2-7	—	-4	4	4
K. KnueppelG · #7	36	15	5-11	4-8	1-1	-7	4	2
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	14	3	1-5	1-3	—	+8	1	1
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	17	13	6-8	0-1	1-2	0	6	1
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	5	3	1-2	1-1	—	+1	2	0
J. GreenG · #10	21	3	1-4	1-4	—	+16	3	1
S. JamesG · #4	24	11	2-3	2-3	5-6	+1	7	1
Team		103	34-88	14-38	21-25		52	21
DNP: X. Tillman, T. Mann

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. GrantF · #9	35	24	7-10	3-6	7-7	0	3	3
T. CamaraF · #33	36	11	4-14	3-12	—	-3	5	3
D. AvdijaF · #8	34	22	8-18	2-5	4-5	-2	4	7
D. ClinganC · #23	26	11	3-9	1-4	4-6	-1	11	3
J. HolidayG · #5	32	4	2-8	0-2	—	+1	1	5
Bench
K. MurrayF · #24	13	0	0-2	0-1	—	-6	3	0
R. Williams IIIC · #35	21	6	3-7	0-1	—	-6	10	0
M. ThybulleG · #4	11	3	1-3	1-2	—	+7	1	0
V. KrejciG · #27	12	3	1-2	1-1	—	-1	3	1
S. HendersonG · #00	19	17	6-10	5-8	—	+1	1	1
Team		101	35-83	16-42	15-18		42	23
DNP: D. Lillard, B. Wesley, C. Youngblood, S. Cissoko

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

POR

Home

34-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-83

FG %

14-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-42

21-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA wins series 2-0

Feb 28

POR93@

CHA109

Mar 11

CHA103@

POR101today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA-15561%

POR+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -3.5↗SpreadBet CHA -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat POR 103-101. B. Miller led with 23 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST. POR outscored the other side 34-20 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 33 REB · 17 AST

GS 51

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 19 REB · 4 AST

GS 30

PORstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 24 REB · 21 AST

GS 53

Bench(5)

29 PTS · 18 REB · 2 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR4th Quarter · 2:12 · 97-98

+17pp→ 51% WP

Toumani Camara · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)

CHA4th Quarter · 12.8 · 99-98

+32pp→ 72% WP

Jerami Grant · offensive charge

CHA4th Quarter · 9.0 · 99-98

+18pp→ 90% WP

Toumani Camara · personal take foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	20	26	32	25	103
POR	34	21	27	19	101

Period scoring

CHA won 3 · POR won 1

Miller 9

Henderson 9

James 7

Green 10

Miller 10

Grant 8

Ball 12

Camara 12

CHA

POR

Shooting comparison

CHA

POR

39%

34-88

42%

35-83

37%

14-38

3PT

38%

16-42

84%

21-25

83%

15-18

Play-by-play · 506 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 103·POR 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 103·POR 101
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Hornets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
CHA 103·POR 101
Q4·0.0
Scoot Henderson makes 41-foot three pointer (Toumani Camara assists)
·
CHA 103·POR 101
−1pp
Q4·3.1
Brandon Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 103·POR 98
+0.6pp
Q4·3.1
Scoot Henderson enters the game for Robert Williams III
· ·
CHA 102·POR 98
Q4·3.1
Brandon Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 102·POR 98
Q4·3.1
Jrue Holiday personal take foul
CHA 101·POR 98
−4pp
Q4·6.6
Grant Williams enters the game for Moussa Diabate
· ·
CHA 101·POR 98
Q4·6.6
Robert Williams III enters the game for Scoot Henderson
· ·
CHA 101·POR 98
Q4·6.6
Hornets Full timeout
CHA 101·POR 98
−1pp
Q4·8.5
Toumani Camara out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
CHA 101·POR 98
−8pp
Q4·9.0
Scoot Henderson enters the game for Robert Williams III
· ·
CHA 101·POR 98
Q4·9.0
Trail Blazers Full timeout
CHA 101·POR 98
Q4·9.0
Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHA 101·POR 98
+6pp
Q4·9.0
Moussa Diabate enters the game for Grant Williams
· ·
CHA 100·POR 98
Q4·9.0
Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 100·POR 98
−2pp
Q4·9.0
Toumani Camara personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CHA 99·POR 98
−18pp
Q4·12.8
Grant Williams enters the game for Moussa Diabate
· ·
CHA 99·POR 98
Q4·12.8
Hornets Full timeout
CHA 99·POR 98
Q4·12.8
Jerami Grant offensive foul turnover
CHA 99·POR 98
Q4·12.8
Jerami Grant offensive chargeBIG MOMENT
CHA 99·POR 98
−32pp
Q4·25.2
Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
CHA 99·POR 98
Q4·25.2
LaMelo Ball personal foulBIG MOMENT
CHA 99·POR 98
+17pp
Q4·39.2
Moussa Diabate vs. Robert Williams III (Jerami Grant gains possession)
· ·
CHA 99·POR 98
Q4·39.2
Trail Blazers defensive team rebound
CHA 99·POR 98
+3pp
Q4·39.2
Robert Williams III blocks Kon Knueppel 's 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
· ·
CHA 99·POR 98
−3pp
Q4·39.2
(00:39.2) [Trail Blazers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Trail Blazers] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
CHA 99·POR 98
+27pp
Q4·39.2
Trail Blazers Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
CHA 99·POR 98
−15pp
Q4·1:00
Robert Williams III bad pass turnover (Kon Knueppel steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
CHA 99·POR 98
−11pp

Betting line

CHA -3.5·O/U 227.5·CHA -155/POR +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Portland Trail Blazers and beat them, 103–101. Decided by 2.

POR +3.5 cashed (CHA won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 23.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

POR

55.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.0%

45.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.1%

115.8

PPG

◀

114.9

114.6

26.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

14.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

16.2

Data via ESPN · hoopR