NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+15PHX

PHX

38-27

129114

MIL

27-37

NBATue, Mar 10FinalSeriesPHX leads series 1-0VegasPHX -2.5

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

21.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Kyle Kuzma

F · #18

25.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 38pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:44

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	32	21	7-11	7-11	—	+8	5	4
O. IghodaroF · #11	21	8	4-4	—	—	+17	4	2
D. BookerG · #1	34	27	10-21	4-7	3-4	+12	5	7
C. GillespieG · #12	31	12	4-9	4-9	—	+11	9	9
J. GreenG · #4	33	25	10-20	3-10	2-2	+8	4	5
Bench
H. HighsmithF · #19	13	6	2-3	2-3	—	-1	2	1
R. DunnF · #0	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-6	0	0
R. FlemingF · #20	17	4	1-4	0-1	2-2	+11	6	0
K. MaluachC · #10	15	8	4-5	0-1	—	-2	0	0
G. AllenG · #8	26	12	4-8	2-5	2-3	+13	3	3
J. GoodwinG · #23	14	6	2-3	2-3	—	+4	1	2
Team		129	48-89	24-51	9-11		39	33
DNP: A. Coffey, J. Bouyea

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. AntetokounmpoF · #34	32	22	10-18	0-1	2-5	-12	6	3
K. KuzmaF · #18	38	33	12-21	6-10	3-4	-16	3	3
O. DiengF · #21	37	12	5-8	2-4	—	-8	10	4
M. TurnerC · #3	32	22	7-13	5-8	3-3	-2	9	3
R. RollinsG · #13	41	14	4-8	2-6	4-4	-6	3	7
Bench
T. PrinceF · #12	18	0	0-4	0-3	—	-6	3	0
P. NanceF · #35	12	0	0-2	0-2	—	-5	2	0
A. GreenG · #20	15	3	1-2	1-2	—	-12	3	2
C. ThomasG · #24	15	8	3-6	0-2	2-4	-9	0	4
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	0	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
Team		114	42-82	16-38	14-20		39	26
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, G. Harris, G. Trent Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

48-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-82

FG %

24-51

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-38

9-11

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX leads series 1-0

Mar 11

PHX129@

MIL114today

Mar 22

MIL108@

PHX105

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX-13057%

MIL+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -2.5↗SpreadBet PHX -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat MIL 129-114. D. Booker paced them with 27 PTS, 5 REB, 7 AST. PHX outscored the other side 29-17 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 27 REB · 27 AST

GS 81

Bench(6)

36 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST

GS 33

MILstarters 90% of pts

Starters(5)

103 PTS · 31 REB · 20 AST

GS 83

Bench(5)

11 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST

GS 7

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX1st Quarter · 1:06 · 35-30

+13pp→ 69% WP

Grayson Allen · makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot

MIL2nd Quarter · 7:54 · 46-49

+12pp→ 56% WP

Jalen Green · misses driving dunk

MIL3rd Quarter · 1:44 · 95-93

+38pp→ 40% WP

Devin Booker · misses 15-foot pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	36	26	38	29	129
MIL	30	35	32	17	114

Period scoring

PHX won 3 · MIL won 1

Green 14

Dieng 8

Booker 13

Turner 19

O'Neale 18

Kuzma 16

Gillespie 9

Thomas 16

PHX

MIL

Shooting comparison

PHX

MIL

54%

48-89

51%

42-82

47%

24-51

3PT

42%

16-38

82%

9-11

70%

14-20

Play-by-play · 439 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 129·MIL 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 129·MIL 114
Q4·0.9
shot clock turnover
PHX 129·MIL 114
Q4·24.9
Pete Nance enters the game for Giannis Antetokounmpo
· ·
PHX 129·MIL 114
Q4·24.9
shot clock turnover
PHX 129·MIL 114
Q4·46.8
Oso Ighodaro defensive rebound
PHX 129·MIL 114
Q4·50.4
Ryan Rollins misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 129·MIL 114
Q4·1:00
Oso Ighodaro makes running layup (Collin Gillespie assists)
·
PHX 129·MIL 114
Q4·1:01
Collin Gillespie defensive rebound
PHX 127·MIL 114
Q4·1:04
Ousmane Dieng misses 6-foot running jump shot
PHX 127·MIL 114
Q4·1:09
Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
PHX 127·MIL 114
Q4·1:14
Royce O'Neale misses 26-foot three point jumper
PHX 127·MIL 114
Q4·1:27
Devin Booker defensive rebound
PHX 127·MIL 114
Q4·1:31
Ryan Rollins misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 127·MIL 114
Q4·1:40
Jalen Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)
· ·
PHX 127·MIL 114
−0.6pp
Q4·2:01
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot driving dunk (Cam Thomas assists)
· ·
PHX 124·MIL 114
Q4·2:21
Collin Gillespie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)
·
PHX 124·MIL 112
−2pp
Q4·2:47
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot two point shot
·
PHX 121·MIL 112
+0.8pp
Q4·2:49
Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound
·
PHX 121·MIL 110
Q4·2:53
Kyle Kuzma misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHX 121·MIL 110
−0.6pp
Q4·3:04
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
PHX 121·MIL 110
Q4·3:09
Devin Booker misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 121·MIL 110
Q4·3:25
(03:25) [Bucks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Bucks] charged with a timeout
PHX 121·MIL 110
+0.8pp
Q4·3:25
Bucks Full timeout
PHX 121·MIL 110
Q4·3:25
Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive foul turnover
·
PHX 121·MIL 110
Q4·3:25
Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive foul
·
PHX 121·MIL 110
−0.9pp
Q4·3:35
Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
PHX 121·MIL 110
Q4·3:39
Collin Gillespie misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 121·MIL 110
+0.5pp
Q4·3:55
Cam Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 121·MIL 110
−9pp
Q4·3:55
Giannis Antetokounmpo enters the game for Taurean Prince
· ·
PHX 121·MIL 109

Betting line

PHX -2.5·O/U 219.5·PHX -130/MIL +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns went into Milwaukee Bucks and beat them, 129–114.

PHX -2.5 cashed (won by 15). Total cleared the 219.5 OVER by 23.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · F
USG%36.699+
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Myles TurnerMIL · C
CONT8.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high
Dillon BrooksPHX
20.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Mark WilliamsPHX
7.2± 2.3high
Miles BridgesPHX
5.8± 3.6high
Oso IghodaroPHX
5.5± 3.2high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high
Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high
Jalen GreenPHX
0.7± 1.4high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

MIL

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

112.2

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.8

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR