NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14HOU

TOR

36-28

99113

HOU

40-24

NBATue, Mar 10FinalSeriesHOU wins series 2-0VegasHOU -4.5

TOR · top performer

RJ Barrett

F · #9

17.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

27.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:55

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	36	9	3-12	1-5	2-3	-18	4	3
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	30	8	3-6	0-3	2-4	-16	4	4
R. BarrettF · #9	32	25	10-18	2-6	3-4	-3	6	1
S. BarnesF · #4	36	24	8-16	2-6	6-6	-11	5	2
I. QuickleyG · #5	33	12	3-9	1-6	5-5	-16	4	6
Bench
J. BattleF · #77	9	3	1-3	1-3	—	+9	2	0
J. MogboF · #2	11	2	1-1	—	—	-1	2	1
G. TempleG · #17	3	0	—	—	—	+4	0	0
J. SheadG · #23	19	2	1-4	0-1	0-2	-9	1	3
J. WalterG · #14	21	6	2-5	2-4	—	-13	2	1
A. MartinG · #55	3	2	—	—	2-2	+4	0	0
G. DickG · #1	8	6	2-4	0-2	2-2	0	0	0
Team		99	34-78	9-36	22-28		30	21

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	33	29	12-16	4-5	1-2	+7	8	2
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	35	23	8-14	3-7	4-4	+9	4	2
T. EasonF · #17	31	8	4-8	0-2	—	+17	3	1
A. SengunC · #28	30	14	6-15	0-1	2-2	+14	12	4
A. ThompsonG · #1	39	23	6-10	1-1	10-14	+12	3	6
Bench
J. GreenF · #32	3	0	0-2	0-1	—	-4	0	0
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	21	3	1-3	1-2	—	+14	3	2
I. CrawfordF · #27	3	0	—	—	—	-4	1	0
C. CapelaC · #30	13	4	1-3	—	2-3	+3	10	2
A. HolidayG · #0	3	2	1-1	—	—	-4	0	0
J. OkogieG · #20	6	0	—	—	—	-5	1	0
R. SheppardG · #15	24	7	2-10	1-5	2-2	+11	7	2
Team		113	41-82	10-24	21-27		52	21

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

34-78

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-82

FG %

9-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-24

22-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

HOU wins series 2-0

Oct 29

HOU139@

TOR121

Mar 11

TOR99@

HOU113today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+16038%

HOU-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -4.5↗SpreadBet HOU -4.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat TOR 113-99. K. Durant paced them with 29 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST. HOU outscored the other side 27-16 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 55

Bench(7)

21 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST

GS 18

HOUstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

97 PTS · 30 REB · 15 AST

GS 83

Bench(7)

16 PTS · 22 REB · 6 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR2nd Quarter · 1:55 · 49-54

+9pp→ 29% WP

Kevin Durant · technical foul

HOU3rd Quarter · 5:19 · 65-72

+7pp→ 85% WP

Amen Thompson · makes free throw 1 of 2

HOU3rd Quarter · 4:10 · 72-75

+8pp→ 68% WP

Kevin Durant · makes 12-foot two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	29	20	34	16	99
HOU	29	29	28	27	113

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · HOU won 2

Barnes 10

Durant 12

Barrett 11

Durant 10

Barnes 10

Thompson 7

Barrett 6

Jr. 8

TOR

HOU

Shooting comparison

TOR

HOU

44%

34-78

50%

41-82

25%

9-36

3PT

42%

10-24

79%

22-28

78%

21-27

Play-by-play · 478 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 99·HOU 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 99·HOU 113
Q4·13.7
Alijah Martin lost ball turnover (Aaron Holiday steals)
·
TOR 99·HOU 113
Q4·20.6
Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound
TOR 99·HOU 113
Q4·24.0
Jeff Green misses 26-foot three point jumper
TOR 99·HOU 113
Q4·44.8
Gradey Dick makes two point shot (Jonathan Mogbo assists)
·
TOR 99·HOU 113
Q4·51.4
Dorian Finney-Smith lost ball turnover (Jonathan Mogbo steals)
·
TOR 97·HOU 113
Q4·1:14
Gradey Dick makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 97·HOU 113
Q4·1:14
Gradey Dick makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 96·HOU 113
Q4·1:14
Jeff Green personal foul
TOR 95·HOU 113
Q4·1:14
Jonathan Mogbo offensive rebound
TOR 95·HOU 113
Q4·1:17
Jamison Battle misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
TOR 95·HOU 113
Q4·1:33
Raptors defensive team rebound
TOR 95·HOU 113
Q4·1:35
Jeff Green misses 20-foot fade away jump shot
TOR 95·HOU 113
Q4·1:56
Alijah Martin makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 95·HOU 113
Q4·1:56
Alijah Martin makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 94·HOU 113
Q4·1:56
Isaiah Crawford shooting foul
TOR 93·HOU 113
Q4·2:03
Aaron Holiday makes two point shot
TOR 93·HOU 113
Q4·2:17
Isaiah Crawford defensive rebound
TOR 93·HOU 111
Q4·2:19
Gradey Dick misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
TOR 93·HOU 111
Q4·2:27
Dorian Finney-Smith personal foul
TOR 93·HOU 111
Q4·2:37
Jeff Green enters the game for Jabari Smith Jr.
·
TOR 93·HOU 111
Q4·2:37
Isaiah Crawford enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
TOR 93·HOU 111
Q4·2:37
Josh Okogie enters the game for Kevin Durant
·
TOR 93·HOU 111
Q4·2:37
Aaron Holiday enters the game for Amen Thompson
·
TOR 93·HOU 111
Q4·2:37
Raptors defensive team rebound
TOR 93·HOU 111
Q4·2:37
Jabari Smith Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
TOR 93·HOU 111
Q4·2:41
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
TOR 93·HOU 111
Q4·2:43
Alperen Sengun misses driving layup
TOR 93·HOU 111
Q4·2:56
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
TOR 93·HOU 111

Betting line

HOU -4.5·O/U 220.5·TOR +160/HOU -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off Toronto Raptors, 113–99.

HOU -4.5 cashed (won by 14). Total stayed UNDER 220.5 by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

HOU

54.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.4%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.1

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR