PHI
34-30
CLE
40-25
PHI · top performer
Justin Edwards
F · #11
14
Pts
2
Reb
3
Ast
CLE · top performer
James Harden
G · #1
21
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 10:34
NBA · Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 20 | 8 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 0-2 | -10 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 8 | 4-10 | — | — | -13 | 7 | 0 | |
| 28 | 12 | 4-12 | 2-7 | 2-2 | -14 | 6 | 4 | |
| 14 | 6 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 4-5 | -8 | 2 | 1 | |
| 36 | 17 | 6-13 | 2-8 | 3-3 | -21 | 5 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 20 | 6 | 3-8 | 0-3 | — | -5 | 5 | 2 | |
| 5 | 8 | 3-4 | 2-3 | — | +3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | — | +5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 19 | 9 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 0-1 | +3 | 3 | 4 | |
| 28 | 14 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 1-1 | -2 | 2 | 3 | |
| 15 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -5 | 7 | 2 | |
| 17 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-2 | -3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 101 | 39-85 | 11-38 | 12-18 | 42 | 20 | ||
| DNP: K. Lowry | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 20 | 13 | 5-9 | 3-6 | — | +16 | 10 | 2 | |
| 28 | 15 | 7-12 | 0-2 | 1-1 | +9 | 8 | 1 | |
| 29 | 21 | 6-11 | 3-8 | 6-6 | +16 | 5 | 5 | |
| 31 | 17 | 4-11 | 0-2 | 9-9 | +10 | 3 | 6 | |
| 21 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-5 | — | +5 | 3 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | -8 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | -8 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -8 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | -8 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 8 | 3-9 | 2-5 | — | +6 | 5 | 1 | |
| 22 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | +5 | 1 | 2 | |
| 21 | 11 | 4-11 | 3-6 | — | +10 | 1 | 2 | |
| 15 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| 26 | 19 | 5-9 | 4-7 | 5-7 | +25 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 115 | 38-84 | 16-44 | 23-25 | 41 | 28 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
45
20
Ast
28
Team stats
PHI
Away
Stat
CLE
Home
39-85
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
38-84
46
FG %
45
11-38
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
16-44
12-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-25
20
Assists
28
14
Turnovers
9
Season series
CLE wins series 4-0
PHI121@CLE132CLE133@PHI107CLE117@PHI115PHI101@CLE115todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -14.5
Between 10 and —
Total
226.5
Standard · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
PHI+57515%CLE-85089%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
14.5
0.0 since open
Total
226.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
CLE beat PHI 115-101. J. Harden led with 21 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. CLE outscored the other side 31-22 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CLE vs PHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHIstarters 50% of ptsStarters(5)
51 PTS · 21 REB · 8 AST
GS 33
Bench(7)
50 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST
GS 40
CLEstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 29 REB · 19 AST
GS 67
Bench(9)
47 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST
GS 34
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDonovan Mitchell · misses 24-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 20 | 24 | 22 | 35 | 101 |
| CLE | 26 | 30 | 31 | 28 | 115 |
Period scoring
PHI won 1 · CLE won 3
Q1
Grimes 8
Harden 7
Q2
Payne 7
Mitchell 11
Q3
Bona 4
Bryant 20
Q4
Edwards 9
Mobley 18
Shooting comparison
46%
39-85
FG
45%
38-84
29%
11-38
3PT
36%
16-44
67%
12-18
FT
92%
23-25
Play-by-play · 461 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 101·CLE 115
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 101·CLE 115
- Q4·16.9
MarJon Beauchamp makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot
PHI 101·CLE 115
- Q4·21.3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin lost ball turnover (MarJon Beauchamp steals)
·
PHI 98·CLE 115
- Q4·27.8
Dalen Terry personal foul
PHI 98·CLE 115
- Q4·32.1
Tristan Enaruna defensive rebound
PHI 98·CLE 115
- Q4·35.3
Tyrese Martin misses 26-foot three point jumper
PHI 98·CLE 115
- Q4·43.5
Dalen Terry defensive rebound
PHI 98·CLE 115
- Q4·45.5
Tristan Enaruna misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHI 98·CLE 115
- Q4·1:02
Tyrese Martin bad pass turnover (Nae'Qwan Tomlin steals)
·
PHI 98·CLE 115
- Q4·1:17
76ers Full timeout
PHI 98·CLE 115
- Q4·1:22
Craig Porter Jr. bad pass turnover (Jabari Walker steals)
·
PHI 98·CLE 115
- Q4·1:40
Jabari Walker out of bounds lost ball turnover
PHI 98·CLE 115
- Q4·1:41
Jabari Walker offensive rebound
PHI 98·CLE 115
- Q4·1:43
MarJon Beauchamp misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHI 98·CLE 115
- Q4·1:55
Riley Minix out of bounds bad pass turnover
PHI 98·CLE 115
- Q4·2:06
Dalen Terry makes two point shot
PHI 98·CLE 115
- Q4·2:18
Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Tristan Enaruna assists)
·
PHI 96·CLE 115
- Q4·2:30
Justin Edwards makes free throw 1 of 1
PHI 96·CLE 113
- Q4·2:30
Craig Porter Jr. shooting foul
PHI 95·CLE 113
- Q4·2:30
Justin Edwards makes two point shot
PHI 95·CLE 113
- Q4·2:33
Larry Nance Jr. bad pass turnover (Justin Edwards steals)
·
PHI 93·CLE 113
- Q4·2:44
MarJon Beauchamp makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dalen Terry assists)
·
PHI 93·CLE 113
- Q4·3:03
Tristan Enaruna makes 24-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter Jr. assists)
·
PHI 90·CLE 113
- Q4·3:32
MarJon Beauchamp makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Dalen Terry assists)
·
PHI 90·CLE 110
- Q4·3:50
Jabari Walker enters the game for Dominick Barlow
·
PHI 88·CLE 110
- Q4·3:50
MarJon Beauchamp enters the game for Quentin Grimes
·
PHI 88·CLE 110
- Q4·3:50
Tristan Enaruna enters the game for Donovan Mitchell
·
PHI 88·CLE 110
- Q4·3:50
Larry Nance Jr. enters the game for Evan Mobley
·
PHI 88·CLE 110
- Q4·3:50
Nae'Qwan Tomlin enters the game for Keon Ellis
·
PHI 88·CLE 110
Betting line
CLE -14.5·O/U 226.5·PHI +575/CLE -850
Recap · NBA
leveland Cavaliers held off Philadelphia 76ers, 115–101.
PHI +14.5 cashed (CLE won by 14). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 10.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Donovan MitchellCLE · GUSG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · CCONT9.498- James HardenCLE · GDRIVES12.694
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI · GDEFL3.194
Sam MerrillCLE · GTS%64.491
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs PHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Donovan MitchellCLE27.5± 7.3high
- Joel EmbiidPHI25.3± 7.2high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI25.0± 6.5high
Rebounds
- Evan MobleyCLE8.0± 3.5high
- Joel EmbiidPHI8.0± 3.5high
- Jarrett AllenCLE7.3± 2.3high
Assists
- James HardenCLE5.9± 2.8high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI5.9± 1.9high
- Joel EmbiidPHI4.6± 2.6high
Blocks
- Evan MobleyCLE2.1± 1.3high
- Jarrett AllenCLE1.3± 0.7high
- Joel EmbiidPHI1.3± 1.4high
Steals
- Donovan MitchellCLE1.5± 1.8high
- Paul GeorgePHI1.5± 1.1high
- James HardenCLE1.4± 1.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
PHI
league avg
CLE
52.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.6%
46.0%
FG%
47.0
▶47.7%
114.3
PPG
114.9
▶117.4
24.1
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.1
12.8
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.8