NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+20POR

IND

15-49

111131

POR

31-34

NBASun, Mar 8FinalSeriesPOR leads series 1-0VegasPOR -9.5

IND · top performer

Pascal Siakam

F · #43

14.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Scoot Henderson

G · #00

27.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 1:03

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	32	22	9-20	0-4	4-9	-19	6	5
J. WalkerF · #5	31	14	5-8	2-4	2-2	-10	3	1
J. HuffC · #32	22	16	5-15	3-10	3-5	-2	6	1
A. NembhardG · #2	28	14	5-11	2-4	2-4	-22	2	9
A. NesmithG · #23	25	9	4-6	1-3	—	-4	1	2
Bench
O. ToppinF · #1	11	4	2-5	0-3	—	-17	2	0
M. PotterC · #11	16	13	4-9	3-7	2-2	-1	4	1
T.J. McConnellG · #9	17	6	2-7	—	2-2	+1	4	3
K. BrownG · #24	20	8	3-6	2-3	—	-3	6	1
B. SheppardG · #26	17	3	1-3	1-2	—	-15	1	0
Q. JacksonG · #29	17	2	1-5	0-2	—	-12	3	3
K. JonesG · #7	5	0	—	—	—	+4	0	1
Team		111	41-95	14-42	15-24		38	27

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. GrantF · #9	32	21	6-10	4-6	5-7	+19	2	1
T. CamaraF · #33	28	7	3-10	1-5	—	+23	11	2
D. AvdijaF · #8	25	18	6-16	0-4	6-6	+3	5	8
D. ClinganC · #23	24	9	4-7	0-1	1-3	-9	11	3
J. HolidayG · #5	25	21	7-10	5-8	2-2	+16	3	3
Bench
K. MurrayF · #24	17	3	1-2	1-1	—	0	4	0
R. Williams IIIC · #35	20	12	6-8	—	—	+30	7	2
Y. HansenC · #16	4	5	1-2	—	3-3	-1	1	0
M. ThybulleG · #4	8	0	—	—	—	+3	0	1
V. KrejciG · #27	22	7	3-10	1-8	—	-5	6	1
S. HendersonG · #00	26	28	10-15	3-7	5-6	+26	3	6
B. WesleyG · #1	4	0	0-2	—	—	-1	0	2
S. CissokoG · #91	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	0	0
Team		131	47-93	15-41	22-27		53	29
DNP: D. Lillard, S. Sharpe

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

POR

Home

41-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-93

FG %

14-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-41

15-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

POR leads series 1-0

Mar 9

IND111@

POR131today

Mar 18

POR127@

IND119

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

POR -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

238.5

High-scoring · +12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+32024%

POR-41080%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet POR -9.5↗SpreadBet POR -9.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

238.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat IND 131-111. S. Henderson paced them with 28 PTS, 3 REB, 6 AST. POR outscored the other side 39-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 18 REB · 18 AST

GS 57

Bench(7)

36 PTS · 20 REB · 9 AST

GS 30

PORstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 32 REB · 17 AST

GS 66

Bench(8)

55 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST

GS 49

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR1st Quarter · 1:03 · 28-27

+8pp→ 60% WP

Scoot Henderson · makes 28-foot three pointer

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	30	22	28	31	111
POR	30	39	31	31	131

Period scoring

IND won 0 · POR won 2

Siakam 7

Grant 9

Nesmith 6

Henderson 13

Huff 11

Grant 7

Potter 13

Holiday 5

IND

POR

Shooting comparison

IND

POR

43%

41-95

51%

47-93

33%

14-42

3PT

37%

15-41

63%

15-24

81%

22-27

Play-by-play · 510 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 111·POR 131
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 111·POR 131
Q4·0.0
Pacers offensive team rebound
IND 111·POR 131
Q4·0.0
Kam Jones misses heave jump shot
IND 111·POR 131
Q4·1.2
shot clock turnover
IND 111·POR 131
Q4·25.3
Kobe Brown makes driving layup (Micah Potter assists)
·
IND 111·POR 131
Q4·37.9
Yang Hansen makes free throw 1 of 1
IND 109·POR 131
Q4·37.9
Kam Jones shooting foul
IND 109·POR 130
Q4·37.9
Yang Hansen makes 1-foot dunk (Blake Wesley assists)
·
IND 109·POR 130
Q4·53.5
Vit Krejci defensive rebound
IND 109·POR 128
Q4·57.4
Micah Potter misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 109·POR 128
Q4·1:09
Kris Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)
·
IND 109·POR 128
Q4·1:28
Jarace Walker makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 109·POR 125
Q4·1:28
Jarace Walker makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 108·POR 125
Q4·1:28
Blake Wesley shooting foul
IND 107·POR 125
Q4·1:36
Micah Potter defensive rebound
IND 107·POR 125
Q4·1:38
Blake Wesley misses driving floating jump shot
IND 107·POR 125
Q4·2:02
Micah Potter makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 107·POR 125
Q4·2:02
Micah Potter makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 106·POR 125
Q4·2:02
Vit Krejci shooting foul
IND 105·POR 125
Q4·2:16
Quenton Jackson defensive rebound
IND 105·POR 125
Q4·2:18
Blake Wesley misses driving layup
IND 105·POR 125
Q4·2:36
Vit Krejci defensive rebound
IND 105·POR 125
Q4·2:37
Kobe Brown misses tip shot
IND 105·POR 125
Q4·2:37
Kobe Brown offensive rebound
IND 105·POR 125
Q4·2:40
Quenton Jackson misses driving layup
IND 105·POR 125
Q4·2:47
Kobe Brown offensive rebound
IND 105·POR 125
Q4·2:50
Quenton Jackson misses 26-foot three point jumper
IND 105·POR 125
Q4·3:14
Yang Hansen makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 105·POR 125
Q4·3:14
Yang Hansen makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 105·POR 124

Betting line

POR -9.5·O/U 238.5·IND +320/POR -410

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ortland Trail Blazers held off Indiana Pacers, 131–111. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

POR -9.5 cashed (won by 20). Total cleared the 238.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

POR vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 160 high confidence

Points

Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Ja MorantPOR
19.6± 8.8high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
7.4± 1.6high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
Ja MorantPOR
8.1± 3.9high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high

Steals

Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

POR

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.0%

45.8%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.1%

112.4

PPG

114.9

▶

114.6

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

16.2

Data via ESPN · hoopR