NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12PHX

CHA

32-33

99111

PHX

37-27

NBASun, Mar 8FinalSeriesPHX leads series 1-0VegasCHA -4.5

CHA · top performer

LaMelo Ball

G · #1

15.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

25.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 18pp · 3rd Quarter · 57.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	29	16	7-16	1-6	1-2	-4	7	1
M. DiabateF · #14	27	2	1-4	—	—	+5	4	2
B. MillerF · #24	32	11	4-12	2-7	1-2	-16	9	3
L. BallG · #1	33	22	9-19	4-12	—	+2	7	6
K. KnueppelG · #7	30	15	4-11	2-8	5-6	-1	1	4
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	19	10	3-4	3-4	1-1	-6	2	2
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	19	10	4-6	—	2-4	-21	7	0
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	2	0	0-1	—	—	+1	1	0
C. WhiteG · #3	20	7	3-10	1-5	—	-14	1	4
J. GreenG · #10	14	3	1-3	1-2	—	-4	0	1
T. MannG · #23	2	0	0-1	—	—	+2	0	0
S. JamesG · #4	14	3	1-1	1-1	—	-4	2	1
Team		99	37-88	15-45	10-15		41	24
DNP: X. Tillman

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	32	3	1-6	1-6	—	+9	7	1
O. IghodaroF · #11	28	2	1-3	—	—	+2	4	5
D. BookerG · #1	35	30	7-18	1-6	15-15	+11	3	10
C. GillespieG · #12	36	24	8-15	5-10	3-3	+5	5	4
J. GreenG · #4	30	24	8-19	4-10	4-6	+13	4	2
Bench
H. HighsmithF · #19	21	3	1-4	0-2	1-2	+19	4	2
R. DunnF · #0	10	3	1-1	1-1	—	-6	1	0
R. FlemingF · #20	23	16	6-8	4-6	—	+1	2	0
K. MaluachC · #10	20	4	2-4	—	—	+10	9	0
A. CoffeyG · #2	5	2	1-1	—	—	-4	1	0
Team		111	36-79	16-41	23-26		40	24
DNP: I. Livers, J. Bouyea

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

37-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-79

FG %

15-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-41

10-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX leads series 1-0

Mar 9

CHA99@

PHX111today

Apr 2

PHX107@

CHA127

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA-20567%

PHX+17037%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -4.5↗SpreadBet CHA -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat CHA 111-99. D. Booker paced them with 30 PTS, 3 REB, 10 AST. PHX outscored the other side 30-22 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 28 REB · 16 AST

GS 44

Bench(7)

33 PTS · 13 REB · 8 AST

GS 26

PHXstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 23 REB · 22 AST

GS 69

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 17 REB · 2 AST

GS 28

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX3rd Quarter · 1:36 · 75-78

+14pp→ 55% WP

Collin Gillespie · makes 14-foot fade away jump shot (Devin Booker assists)

CHA3rd Quarter · 57.0 · 77-78

+18pp→ 53% WP

Moussa Diabate · blocks Khaman Maluach's two point shot

PHX4th Quarter · 9:04 · 81-86

+10pp→ 70% WP

Rasheer Fleming · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Haywood Highsmith assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	30	28	19	22	99
PHX	28	32	21	30	111

Period scoring

CHA won 1 · PHX won 3

Knueppel 10

Green 8

Bridges 8

Green 12

Ball 7

Booker 9

Williams 7

Fleming 10

CHA

PHX

Shooting comparison

CHA

PHX

42%

37-88

46%

36-79

33%

15-45

3PT

39%

16-41

67%

10-15

88%

23-26

Play-by-play · 468 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 99·PHX 111
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 99·PHX 111
Q4·9.6
Khaman Maluach defensive rebound
CHA 99·PHX 111
Q4·12.4
Tre Mann misses 17-foot step back jumpshot
CHA 99·PHX 111
Q4·19.6
Hornets offensive team rebound
CHA 99·PHX 111
Q4·20.1
Pat Connaughton misses driving layup
CHA 99·PHX 111
Q4·36.0
Amir Coffey enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
CHA 99·PHX 111
Q4·36.0
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Devin Booker
·
CHA 99·PHX 111
Q4·36.0
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Royce O'Neale
·
CHA 99·PHX 111
Q4·36.0
Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Miles Bridges
·
CHA 99·PHX 111
Q4·36.0
Hornets defensive team rebound
CHA 99·PHX 111
Q4·37.6
Haywood Highsmith misses driving floating jump shot
CHA 99·PHX 111
Q4·51.6
Haywood Highsmith offensive rebound
CHA 99·PHX 111
Q4·54.4
Collin Gillespie misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHA 99·PHX 111
Q4·1:11
Miles Bridges makes driving layup
CHA 99·PHX 111
Q4·1:28
Pat Connaughton defensive rebound
CHA 97·PHX 111
Q4·1:29
Oso Ighodaro misses two point shot
CHA 97·PHX 111
Q4·1:39
Tre Mann enters the game for Grant Williams
·
CHA 97·PHX 111
Q4·1:39
Devin Booker makes technical free throw
CHA 97·PHX 111
Q4·1:39
Grant Williams technical foul
CHA 97·PHX 110
Q4·1:39
Pat Connaughton enters the game for Kon Knueppel
·
CHA 97·PHX 110
Q4·1:39
Sion James enters the game for Brandon Miller
·
CHA 97·PHX 110
Q4·1:39
Josh Green enters the game for LaMelo Ball
· ·
CHA 97·PHX 110
Q4·1:39
Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Rasheer Fleming
·
CHA 97·PHX 110
Q4·1:39
LaMelo Ball personal foul
CHA 97·PHX 110
Q4·2:04
Grant Williams makes 29-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)
·
CHA 97·PHX 110
Q4·2:11
Grant Williams defensive rebound
CHA 94·PHX 110
Q4·2:14
Devin Booker misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHA 94·PHX 110
Q4·2:25
Miles Bridges enters the game for Moussa Diabate
·
CHA 94·PHX 110
Q4·2:25
Moussa Diabate offensive foul turnover
CHA 94·PHX 110

Betting line

CHA -4.5·O/U 218.5·CHA -205/PHX +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns held off Charlotte Hornets, 111–99.

PHX +4.5 cashed (CHA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 218.5 by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

PHX

55.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

45.5%

115.8

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

26.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR