NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+39ORL

ORL

35-28

13091

MIL

27-36

NBASun, Mar 8FinalSeriesORL wins series 2-1VegasORL -6.5

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

28.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Bobby Portis

F · #9

18.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 11pp · 1st Quarter · 3:03

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	29	33	12-16	3-6	6-9	+27	5	3
T. da SilvaF · #23	27	5	2-5	1-3	—	+23	6	5
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	22	9	3-6	0-1	3-4	+20	5	2
D. BaneG · #3	30	18	6-12	1-3	5-5	+28	5	9
J. SuggsG · #4	24	20	7-9	3-3	3-3	+23	3	2
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	18	3	0-3	0-1	3-4	+11	9	0
J. CainF · #8	8	8	3-4	2-2	—	+10	0	0
N. PendaF · #93	24	8	2-5	1-3	3-4	+10	7	4
G. BitadzeC · #35	8	7	3-4	0-1	1-4	+8	5	2
J. CarterG · #2	24	5	2-8	1-6	—	+16	2	2
J. HowardG · #13	25	14	5-8	2-4	2-2	+19	2	2
Team		130	45-80	14-33	26-35		49	31

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. DiengF · #21	25	2	1-7	0-2	—	-29	4	5
M. TurnerC · #3	23	3	1-6	1-3	0-2	-27	0	1
J. SimsC · #00	25	10	5-5	—	—	-30	7	2
A. GreenG · #20	28	4	1-8	1-8	1-1	-30	1	0
R. RollinsG · #13	23	15	5-12	3-7	2-2	-14	1	1
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	28	18	7-11	4-5	0-1	-7	10	3
T. AntetokounmpoF · #43	9	4	1-1	—	2-4	-8	3	1
P. NanceF · #35	22	6	3-5	0-2	—	-17	3	2
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	25	9	4-12	1-9	—	-21	3	0
C. ThomasG · #24	20	17	7-12	2-4	1-3	-3	1	6
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	12	3	1-5	1-4	—	-9	3	1
Team		91	36-84	13-44	6-13		36	22
DNP: G. Harris

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

45-80

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-84

FG %

14-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-44

26-35

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

6-13

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ORL wins series 2-1

Feb 10

MIL99@

ORL118

Feb 12

MIL116@

ORL108

Mar 9

ORL130@

MIL91today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

216.5

Defensive · -9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL-22569%

MIL+18535%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -6.5↗SpreadBet ORL -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

216.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat MIL 130-91. P. Banchero paced them with 33 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST. ORL outscored the other side 33-15 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 24 REB · 21 AST

GS 81

Bench(6)

45 PTS · 25 REB · 10 AST

GS 38

MILstarters 37% of pts

Starters(5)

34 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST

GS 15

Bench(6)

57 PTS · 23 REB · 13 AST

GS 45

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIL1st Quarter · 3:36 · 13-7

+7pp→ 25% WP

Gary Trent Jr. · bad pass turnover (Desmond Bane steals)

ORL1st Quarter · 2:27 · 17-9

+9pp→ 82% WP

Jericho Sims · enters the game for Myles Turner

MIL1st Quarter · 3:03 · 14-9

+11pp→ 29% WP

Myles Turner · blocks Wendell Carter Jr. 's 3-foot driving layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	25	42	33	30	130
MIL	15	40	15	21	91

Period scoring

ORL won 4 · MIL won 0

Banchero 7

Portis 4

Banchero 19

Portis 14

Suggs 8

Thomas 8

Cain 8

Rollins 5

ORL

MIL

Shooting comparison

ORL

MIL

56%

45-80

43%

36-84

42%

14-33

3PT

30%

13-44

74%

26-35

46%

6-13

Play-by-play · 461 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 130·MIL 91
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 130·MIL 91
Q4·3.9
Jett Howard lost ball turnover (Pete Nance steals)
·
ORL 130·MIL 91
Q4·25.0
Goga Bitadze defensive rebound
ORL 130·MIL 91
Q4·27.8
AJ Green misses 23-foot three point jumper
ORL 130·MIL 91
Q4·33.0
Andre Jackson Jr. offensive rebound
ORL 130·MIL 91
Q4·36.2
AJ Green misses 29-foot three point jumper
ORL 130·MIL 91
Q4·46.6
Jett Howard makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 130·MIL 91
Q4·46.6
Jett Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 129·MIL 91
Q4·46.6
Pete Nance personal foul
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·57.3
Thanasis Antetokounmpo out of bounds lost ball turnover
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:00
Jett Howard lost ball turnover (Thanasis Antetokounmpo steals)
·
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:07
Noah Penda defensive rebound
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:11
Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 2 of 2
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:11
Bucks offensive team rebound
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:11
Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 1 of 2
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:11
Noah Penda shooting foul
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:16
Thanasis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:19
AJ Green misses 27-foot three point jumper
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:33
Thanasis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:36
Goga Bitadze misses free throw 2 of 2
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:36
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:36
Goga Bitadze misses free throw 1 of 2
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:36
AJ Green shooting foul
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:43
Jett Howard defensive rebound
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:46
Pete Nance misses 26-foot three point jumper
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:53
Pete Nance defensive rebound
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·1:57
Jett Howard misses two point shot
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·2:08
Andre Jackson Jr. out of bounds bad pass turnover
ORL 128·MIL 91
Q4·2:11
Goga Bitadze bad pass turnover (Pete Nance steals)
·
ORL 128·MIL 91

Betting line

ORL -6.5·O/U 216.5·ORL -225/MIL +185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic went into Milwaukee Bucks and beat them, 130–91. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ORL -6.5 cashed (won by 39). Total cleared the 216.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high
Tyler HerroMIL
19.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
5.1± 2.3high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high
Anthony BlackORL
0.7± 1.1high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

MIL

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.2

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

26.0

Assists / G

25.0

25.8

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR