NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+30TOR

DAL

21-43

92122

TOR

36-27

NBASun, Mar 8FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTOR -9.5

DAL · top performer

Daniel Gafford

F · #21

25.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

RJ Barrett

F · #9

24.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 10:16

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #20	19	6	2-7	0-1	2-2	-17	2	1
D. GaffordF · #21	23	21	10-10	—	1-1	-8	11	3
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	31	9	3-8	2-5	1-2	-14	7	3
C. FlaggF · #32	30	17	7-17	1-3	2-3	-11	8	6
M. ChristieG · #00	26	2	1-11	0-7	—	-22	3	1
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	5	0	—	—	—	-6	2	0
C. MartinF · #16	15	0	0-1	—	—	-16	5	0
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	20	6	2-6	0-1	2-2	-16	7	2
N. MarshallF · #13	22	8	3-5	—	2-2	-4	0	1
K. ThompsonG · #31	21	5	2-10	1-7	—	-8	1	2
B. WilliamsG · #10	19	16	4-8	1-4	7-8	-16	0	1
R. NembhardG · #9	5	2	1-2	0-1	—	-6	1	2
A. JohnsonG · #8	5	0	0-3	0-1	—	-6	0	0
Team		92	35-88	5-30	17-20		47	22

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	31	11	4-12	0-2	3-4	+5	6	6
R. BarrettF · #9	34	31	13-19	3-7	2-4	+16	6	3
S. BarnesF · #4	35	17	6-12	2-4	3-3	+25	4	5
J. PoeltlC · #19	30	16	8-9	—	—	+16	10	4
I. QuickleyG · #5	31	10	4-14	2-7	—	+14	2	8
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	18	13	5-9	2-6	1-2	+14	7	3
J. BattleF · #77	4	0	—	—	—	+6	0	0
G. TempleG · #17	4	3	0-1	0-1	3-4	+6	1	0
J. SheadG · #23	14	0	—	—	—	+8	1	4
J. WalterG · #14	26	11	4-11	0-5	3-3	+24	3	4
G. DickG · #1	13	10	4-8	1-4	1-2	+16	2	2
Team		122	48-95	10-36	16-22		42	39
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

35-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-95

FG %

5-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-36

17-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 26

TOR129@

DAL139

Mar 8

DAL92@

TOR122today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+31024%

TOR-39580%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -9.5↗SpreadBet TOR -9.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat DAL 122-92. R. Barrett paced them with 31 PTS, 6 REB, 3 AST. TOR outscored the other side 31-22 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 31 REB · 14 AST

GS 44

Bench(8)

37 PTS · 16 REB · 8 AST

GS 17

TORstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 28 REB · 26 AST

GS 77

Bench(6)

37 PTS · 14 REB · 13 AST

GS 36

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	29	15	22	26	92
TOR	36	21	31	34	122

Period scoring

DAL won 0 · TOR won 4

Gafford 9

Barnes 7

Gafford 4

Barrett 9

Thompson 5

Ingram 8

Flagg 8

Barrett 10

DAL

TOR

Shooting comparison

DAL

TOR

40%

35-88

51%

48-95

17%

5-30

3PT

28%

10-36

85%

17-20

73%

16-22

Play-by-play · 488 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 92·TOR 122
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 92·TOR 122
Q4·10.8
Brandon Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 92·TOR 122
Q4·10.8
Brandon Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 91·TOR 122
Q4·10.8
Sandro Mamukelashvili shooting foul
DAL 90·TOR 122
Q4·29.9
Gradey Dick makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)
·
DAL 90·TOR 122
Q4·34.4
Sandro Mamukelashvili offensive rebound
DAL 90·TOR 119
Q4·37.6
Brandon Williams blocks Gradey Dick 's 4-foot running layup
·
DAL 90·TOR 119
Q4·41.6
Ja'Kobe Walter defensive rebound
DAL 90·TOR 119
Q4·43.5
AJ Johnson misses driving layup
DAL 90·TOR 119
Q4·56.2
Dwight Powell offensive rebound
DAL 90·TOR 119
Q4·58.9
Brandon Williams misses 24-foot three point jumper
DAL 90·TOR 119
Q4·1:17
Ja'Kobe Walter makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 90·TOR 119
Q4·1:17
Ja'Kobe Walter makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 90·TOR 118
Q4·1:17
Dwight Powell loose ball foul
DAL 90·TOR 117
Q4·1:17
Raptors defensive team rebound
DAL 90·TOR 117
Q4·1:19
Ryan Nembhard misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
DAL 90·TOR 117
Q4·1:35
Garrett Temple makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 90·TOR 117
Q4·1:35
Garrett Temple makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 90·TOR 116
Q4·1:35
Max Christie enters the game for Caleb Martin
·
DAL 90·TOR 115
Q4·1:35
Caleb Martin loose ball foul
DAL 90·TOR 115
Q4·1:35
Raptors defensive team rebound
DAL 90·TOR 115
Q4·1:35
AJ Johnson misses two point shot
DAL 90·TOR 115
Q4·1:43
Ja'Kobe Walter makes running dunk
DAL 90·TOR 115
Q4·1:44
Dwight Powell lost ball turnover (Ja'Kobe Walter steals)
·
DAL 90·TOR 113
Q4·1:55
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
DAL 90·TOR 113
Q4·1:57
Sandro Mamukelashvili misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 90·TOR 113
Q4·1:57
Sandro Mamukelashvili makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 90·TOR 113
Q4·1:57
Dwight Powell shooting foul
DAL 90·TOR 112
Q4·2:05
Dwight Powell out of bounds bad pass turnover
DAL 90·TOR 112

Betting line

TOR -9.5·O/U 233.5·DAL +310/TOR -395

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors held off Dallas Mavericks, 122–92. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

TOR -9.5 cashed (won by 30). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

TOR

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.5%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.1%

114.1

PPG

114.9

114.3

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR