DET
45-18
MIA
36-29
DET · top performer
Jalen Duren
C · #0
24
Pts
5
Reb
1
Ast
MIA · top performer
Bam Adebayo
C · #13
24
Pts
9
Reb
6
Ast
Biggest swing: 25pp · 2nd Quarter · 11:41
NBA · Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 24 | 9 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 3-3 | -12 | 1 | 0 | |
| 24 | 3 | 1-7 | 1-7 | — | -4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 26 | 24 | 10-12 | — | 4-5 | -18 | 5 | 1 | |
| 19 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | -12 | 2 | 2 | |
| 35 | 26 | 9-18 | 6-9 | 2-2 | -16 | 1 | 10 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 6 | 10 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 3-4 | +11 | 4 | 1 | |
| 22 | 14 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | -15 | 6 | 1 | |
| 19 | 5 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | -16 | 7 | 0 | |
| 5 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | — | +11 | 0 | 2 | |
| 15 | 6 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | -3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 22 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-4 | — | +9 | 4 | 4 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | +6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 4 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | +4 | 4 | 2 | |
| Team | 110 | 40-90 | 11-37 | 19-24 | 39 | 26 | ||
| DNP: T. Smith | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 16 | 4 | 1-3 | — | 2-2 | +9 | 6 | 2 | |
| 34 | 24 | 7-17 | 4-10 | 6-6 | +13 | 9 | 6 | |
| 24 | 8 | 4-5 | 0-1 | — | +16 | 2 | 4 | |
| 30 | 25 | 8-16 | 4-8 | 5-6 | +18 | 6 | 3 | |
| 33 | 10 | 3-10 | 1-3 | 3-4 | +4 | 5 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 29 | 19 | 6-18 | 1-3 | 6-6 | +2 | 6 | 7 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 26 | 12 | 6-9 | 0-3 | — | +11 | 6 | 0 | |
| 22 | 7 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | -1 | 4 | 4 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 22 | 12 | 5-8 | 2-3 | — | -9 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 121 | 43-93 | 12-33 | 23-25 | 49 | 31 | ||
| DNP: A. Wiggins, S. Fontecchio, N. Jovic, N. Powell | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
46
26
Ast
31
Team stats
DET
Away
Stat
MIA
Home
40-90
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
43-93
44
FG %
46
11-37
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-33
19-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-25
26
Assists
31
11
Turnovers
11
Season series
MIA wins series 2-1
DET138@MIA135MIA118@DET112DET110@MIA121todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
230.5
Standard · +4.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DET-11553%MIA-10551%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
230.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIA beat DET 121-110. B. Adebayo led with 24 PTS, 9 REB, 6 AST. MIA outscored the other side 34-16 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIA vs DET
Starters vs bench
production by unitDETstarters 58% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 12 REB · 15 AST
GS 50
Bench(8)
46 PTS · 27 REB · 11 AST
GS 39
MIAstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 28 REB · 20 AST
GS 64
Bench(6)
50 PTS · 21 REB · 11 AST
GS 42
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJalen Duren · lost ball turnover (Davion Mitchell steals)
Javonte Green · misses 25-foot three point jumper
Bam Adebayo · misses 2-foot tip shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 32 | 32 | 30 | 110 |
| MIA | 34 | 33 | 36 | 18 | 121 |
Period scoring
DET won 1 · MIA won 3
Q1
Duren 6
Adebayo 9
Q2
Cunningham 13
Green 13
Q3
Duren 10
Gardner 21
Q4
Reed 10
Jakucionis 7
Shooting comparison
44%
40-90
FG
46%
43-93
30%
11-37
3PT
36%
12-33
79%
19-24
FT
92%
23-25
Play-by-play · 484 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 110·MIA 121
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 110·MIA 121
- Q4·0.7
Trevor Keels defensive rebound
DET 110·MIA 121
- Q4·1.1
Paul Reed misses 16-foot step back jumpshot
DET 110·MIA 121
- Q4·10.4
Kasparas Jakucionis out of bounds lost ball turnover
DET 110·MIA 121
- Q4·10.7
Vladislav Goldin defensive rebound
DET 110·MIA 121
- Q4·13.5
Chaz Lanier misses driving layup
DET 110·MIA 121
- Q4·14.7
Myron Gardner lost ball turnover (Paul Reed steals)
·
DET 110·MIA 121
- Q4·22.4
Paul Reed vs. Myron Gardner (Chaz Lanier gains possession)
· ·
DET 110·MIA 121
- Q4·22.4
Myron Gardner offensive rebound
DET 110·MIA 121
- Q4·24.7
Trevor Keels misses 23-foot three point jumper
DET 110·MIA 121
- Q4·40.7
Bobi Klintman makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)
·
DET 110·MIA 121
- Q4·48.5
Kasparas Jakucionis traveling turnover
DET 107·MIA 121
- Q4·48.5
Trevor Keels enters the game for Pelle Larsson
·
DET 107·MIA 121
- Q4·57.0
Paul Reed makes two point shot (Bobi Klintman assists)
·
DET 107·MIA 121
- Q4·1:16
Kasparas Jakucionis makes driving layup
DET 105·MIA 121
- Q4·1:30
Paul Reed makes 5-foot two point shot
DET 105·MIA 119
- Q4·1:43
Vladislav Goldin bad pass turnover (Paul Reed steals)
·
DET 103·MIA 119
- Q4·1:44
Paul Reed vs. Vladislav Goldin (Daniss Jenkins gains possession)
· ·
DET 103·MIA 119
- Q4·2:08
Vladislav Goldin enters the game for Bam Adebayo
·
DET 103·MIA 119
- Q4·2:08
Vladislav Goldin defensive rebound
DET 103·MIA 119
- Q4·2:08
Paul Reed misses free throw 2 of 2
DET 103·MIA 119
- Q4·2:08
Paul Reed makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 103·MIA 119
- Q4·2:08
Myron Gardner loose ball foul
DET 102·MIA 119
- Q4·2:08
Paul Reed offensive rebound
DET 102·MIA 119
- Q4·2:09
Dru Smith blocks Bobi Klintman 's 3-foot layup
· ·
DET 102·MIA 119
- Q4·2:12
Kevin Huerter defensive rebound
DET 102·MIA 119
- Q4·2:17
Pelle Larsson misses 26-foot three point jumper
DET 102·MIA 119
- Q4·2:41
Paul Reed makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 102·MIA 119
- Q4·2:41
Myron Gardner enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.
·
DET 101·MIA 119
Betting line
DET -1.5·O/U 230.5·DET -115/MIA -105
Recap · NBA
iami Heat held off Detroit Pistons, 121–110.
MIA +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 230.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Cade CunninghamDET · GTOUCHES9799+- Jalen DurenDET · CTS%68.898
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · FDRIVES13.295
Paul ReedDET · FTS%65.092- Bam AdebayoMIA · CCONT6.891
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIA vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA25.0± 4.5high
- Bam AdebayoMIA18.4± 7.8high
Rebounds
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA9.9± 4.4high
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
Assists
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA5.1± 2.6high
Blocks
- Ausar ThompsonDET1.5± 1.3high
- Jalen DurenDET1.0± 1.1high
- Paul ReedDET0.9± 1.3high
Steals
- Ausar ThompsonDET2.0± 1.8high
- Cade CunninghamDET1.4± 1.2high
- Tobias HarrisDET1.3± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DET
league avg
MIA
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
54.2%
48.0%
FG%
47.0
46.8%
115.9
PPG
114.9
▶120.9
27.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.0
14.3
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.0