NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13LAL

41-24

97110

LAL

39-25

NBASun, Mar 8FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNY -5.5

NY · top performer

Karl-Anthony Towns

C · #32

21.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Austin Reaves

G · #15

23.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 22pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:08

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	38	13	5-11	1-4	2-2	-9	8	1
K. TownsC · #32	34	25	8-17	1-5	8-8	-9	16	2
J. HartG · #3	22	8	4-8	0-1	—	-5	6	2
M. BridgesG · #25	27	0	0-6	0-4	—	-4	6	5
J. BrunsonG · #11	42	24	8-19	3-8	5-7	-8	6	7
Bench
M. DiawaraF · #51	15	4	1-4	0-3	2-2	+1	0	2
M. RobinsonC · #23	17	4	2-3	—	—	-11	4	0
J. ClarksonG · #00	10	9	3-4	1-2	2-2	+4	0	1
L. ShametG · #44	27	10	4-8	2-6	—	-18	1	2
J. AlvaradoG · #5	7	0	0-2	0-1	—	-6	0	1
Team		97	35-82	8-34	19-21		47	23
DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, A. Hukporti, K. McCullar Jr., T. Kolek

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. HachimuraF · #28	37	13	5-11	3-8	—	+5	7	2
D. AytonC · #5	20	6	3-4	—	—	+3	8	0
M. SmartG · #36	29	5	1-10	0-5	3-4	+27	3	4
L. DoncicG · #77	38	35	11-25	5-16	8-10	+14	8	4
A. ReavesG · #15	39	25	8-16	3-6	6-7	+5	4	5
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	10	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
J. VanderbiltF · #2	10	3	1-2	1-2	—	-4	2	1
J. LaRaviaF · #12	13	6	2-2	—	2-2	+8	4	3
J. HayesC · #11	17	5	0-3	—	5-6	+8	4	0
L. KennardG · #10	27	12	4-8	3-7	1-1	0	2	1
Team		110	35-81	15-44	25-30		42	20
DNP: D. Timme, D. Knecht, K. Bufkin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

35-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-81

FG %

8-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-44

19-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 2

LAL100@

NY112

Mar 8

NY97@

LAL110today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-19866%

LAL+16438%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -5.5↗SpreadBet NY -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat NY 110-97. A. Reaves paced them with 25 PTS, 4 REB, 5 AST. LAL outscored the other side 34-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 42 REB · 17 AST

GS 50

Bench(5)

27 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST

GS 18

LALstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 30 REB · 15 AST

GS 66

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL2nd Quarter · 5:48 · 33-46

+13pp→ 80% WP

Jalen Brunson · bad pass turnover (Marcus Smart steals)

NY2nd Quarter · 6:08 · 33-46

+22pp→ 23% WP

Luka Doncic · enters the game for Austin Reaves

LAL4th Quarter · 12:00 · 69-88

+22pp→ 99% WP

Jarred Vanderbilt · enters the game for Jaxson Hayes

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	23	26	20	28	97
LAL	31	23	34	22	110

Period scoring

NY won 2 · LAL won 2

Brunson 6

Doncic 12

Anunoby 9

Vanderbilt 12

Towns 4

Doncic 14

Towns 11

Vanderbilt 42

LAL

Shooting comparison

LAL

43%

35-82

43%

35-81

24%

8-34

3PT

34%

15-44

90%

19-21

83%

25-30

Play-by-play · 468 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 97·LAL 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 97·LAL 110
Q4·1.4
shot clock turnover
NY 97·LAL 110
Q4·24.4
Jalen Brunson lost ball turnover (Luke Kennard steals)
·
NY 97·LAL 110
Q4·29.4
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound
NY 97·LAL 110
Q4·32.9
Austin Reaves misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
NY 97·LAL 110
Q4·51.0
Austin Reaves defensive rebound
NY 97·LAL 110
Q4·53.9
Mikal Bridges misses 26-foot three point jumper
NY 97·LAL 110
Q4·55.3
OG Anunoby offensive rebound
NY 97·LAL 110
Q4·58.1
OG Anunoby misses two point shot
NY 97·LAL 110
Q4·1:05
Luka Doncic makes 29-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)
·
NY 97·LAL 110
Q4·1:28
Karl-Anthony Towns makes free throw 1 of 1
NY 97·LAL 107
+0.5pp
Q4·1:28
Marcus Smart enters the game for Jaxson Hayes
·
NY 96·LAL 107
Q4·1:28
Austin Reaves shooting foul
NY 96·LAL 107
−0.7pp
Q4·1:28
Karl-Anthony Towns makes driving layup (Mikal Bridges assists)
·
NY 96·LAL 107
Q4·1:37
Luke Kennard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)
·
NY 94·LAL 107
+0.5pp
Q4·1:46
Jalen Brunson lost ball turnover (Austin Reaves steals)
·
NY 94·LAL 104
+0.8pp
Q4·1:50
OG Anunoby defensive rebound
NY 94·LAL 104
Q4·1:55
Luka Doncic misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
NY 94·LAL 104
Q4·2:25
Karl-Anthony Towns makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)
·
NY 94·LAL 104
−0.7pp
Q4·2:34
Luka Doncic makes 4-foot two point shot
NY 91·LAL 104
+1pp
Q4·2:52
Jalen Brunson lost ball turnover (Austin Reaves steals)
·
NY 91·LAL 102
−0.9pp
Q4·2:57
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound
NY 91·LAL 102
Q4·3:00
Luka Doncic misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
NY 91·LAL 102
Q4·3:14
Luka Doncic defensive rebound
NY 91·LAL 102
Q4·3:15
Karl-Anthony Towns misses tip shot
NY 91·LAL 102
+0.7pp
Q4·3:15
Karl-Anthony Towns offensive rebound
NY 91·LAL 102
−0.7pp
Q4·3:18
Jalen Brunson misses 3-foot two point shot
NY 91·LAL 102
+1pp
Q4·3:31
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound
NY 91·LAL 102
Q4·3:34
Luke Kennard misses 26-foot three point jumper
NY 91·LAL 102
−0.6pp

Betting line

NY -5.5·O/U 226.5·NY -198/LAL +164

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off New York Knicks, 110–97.

LAL +5.5 cashed (NY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

LAL

55.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

48.0%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

116.4

PPG

◀

114.9

114.8

27.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR