NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11BOS

BOS

43-21

10998

CLE

39-25

NBASun, Mar 8FinalSeriesBOS wins series 3-0VegasCLE -1.5

BOS · top performer

Baylor Scheierman

G · #55

17.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Donovan Mitchell

G · #45

27.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 14pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:32

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. TatumF · #0	27	20	6-16	2-9	6-7	-3	3	2
S. HauserF · #30	24	15	5-10	5-10	—	+11	4	0
N. QuetaC · #88	36	4	2-7	—	—	+13	11	1
D. WhiteG · #9	36	6	2-9	0-3	2-2	-6	7	5
J. BrownG · #7	38	23	7-17	1-3	8-9	+17	9	8
Bench
L. GarzaC · #52	12	7	2-4	1-1	2-2	-4	1	1
P. PritchardG · #11	35	18	7-12	2-6	2-2	+18	3	7
B. ScheiermanG · #55	26	16	6-8	4-6	—	+10	10	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	7	0	0-1	—	—	-1	1	1
Team		109	37-84	15-38	20-22		49	25
DNP: A. Williams, R. Harper Jr., J. Walsh

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	21	7	3-5	1-3	—	+1	3	0
E. MobleyC · #4	31	24	10-19	2-6	2-3	-6	8	1
J. HardenG · #1	38	19	6-16	3-8	4-7	-12	4	10
D. MitchellG · #45	33	30	9-18	3-9	9-11	+8	7	5
S. MerrillG · #5	29	5	2-9	1-7	—	-1	5	4
Bench
T. BryantC · #3	14	3	1-6	1-4	—	-8	2	0
D. SchroderG · #8	20	2	1-4	0-1	—	0	3	2
J. TysonG · #20	25	8	3-8	2-6	—	-18	6	1
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	4	0	—	—	—	-4	1	0
K. EllisG · #14	24	0	0-1	0-1	—	-15	3	0
Team		98	35-86	13-45	15-21		42	23
DNP: L. Nance Jr., T. Enaruna, N. Tomlin, R. Minix

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

37-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-86

FG %

15-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-45

20-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS wins series 3-0

Oct 29

CLE105@

BOS125

Nov 30

BOS117@

CLE115

Mar 8

BOS109@

CLE98today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+10050%

CLE-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat CLE 109-98. B. Scheierman led with 16 PTS, 10 REB, 0 AST. BOS outscored the other side 21-10 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 34 REB · 16 AST

GS 48

Bench(4)

41 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 37

CLEstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 27 REB · 20 AST

GS 73

Bench(5)

13 PTS · 15 REB · 3 AST

GS 3

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE1st Quarter · 45.5 · 32-26

+10pp→ 43% WP

Jaylen Brown · lost ball turnover (Donovan Mitchell steals)

CLE2nd Quarter · 9:21 · 37-26

+11pp→ 28% WP

Luka Garza · bad pass turnover

CLE2nd Quarter · 6:32 · 42-28

+14pp→ 19% WP

Payton Pritchard · bad pass turnover (Sam Merrill steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	35	21	30	23	109
CLE	26	10	33	29	98

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · CLE won 2

Tatum 12

Mobley 9

Scheierman 5

Mobley 5

Brown 9

Mitchell 9

Pritchard 9

Mitchell 9

BOS

CLE

Shooting comparison

BOS

CLE

44%

37-84

41%

35-86

39%

15-38

3PT

29%

13-45

91%

20-22

71%

15-21

Play-by-play · 465 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 109·CLE 98
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 109·CLE 98
Q4·13.2
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
BOS 109·CLE 98
Q4·15.6
Sam Merrill misses 22-foot three point pullup jump shot
BOS 109·CLE 98
Q4·19.6
Neemias Queta enters the game for Jayson Tatum
·
BOS 109·CLE 98
Q4·19.6
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
BOS 109·CLE 98
Q4·20.2
Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point jumper
BOS 109·CLE 98
Q4·26.0
Jaylon Tyson offensive rebound
BOS 109·CLE 98
Q4·27.8
Evan Mobley misses 22-foot three point jumper
BOS 109·CLE 98
Q4·36.0
Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 109·CLE 98
Q4·36.0
Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 108·CLE 98
Q4·36.0
Jaylon Tyson personal take foul
BOS 107·CLE 98
Q4·37.2
Sam Hauser enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
BOS 107·CLE 98
Q4·37.2
Sam Merrill personal foul
BOS 107·CLE 98
Q4·37.2
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
BOS 107·CLE 98
Q4·37.6
Donovan Mitchell misses running pullup jump shot
BOS 107·CLE 98
−0.6pp
Q4·44.4
Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound
BOS 107·CLE 98
Q4·47.4
Jaylen Brown misses 21-foot step back jumpshot
BOS 107·CLE 98
Q4·1:09
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
BOS 107·CLE 98
Q4·1:11
James Harden misses 22-foot three point jumper
BOS 107·CLE 98
−1pp
Q4·1:30
Jaylen Brown out of bounds bad pass turnover
BOS 107·CLE 98
+0.6pp
Q4·1:51
James Harden makes free throw 3 of 3
BOS 107·CLE 98
−0.9pp
Q4·1:51
James Harden makes free throw 2 of 3
BOS 107·CLE 97
+1pp
Q4·1:51
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 3
BOS 107·CLE 96
Q4·1:51
Jaylen Brown shooting foul
BOS 107·CLE 95
+0.9pp
Q4·1:59
Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Neemias Queta assists)
·
BOS 107·CLE 95
−1pp
Q4·2:23
Evan Mobley makes dunk (James Harden assists)
·
BOS 104·CLE 95
+0.6pp
Q4·2:26
Sam Merrill defensive rebound
BOS 104·CLE 93
Q4·2:29
Jayson Tatum misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
BOS 104·CLE 93
Q4·2:47
Sam Merrill personal foul
BOS 104·CLE 93

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 224.5·BOS +100/CLE -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics went into Cleveland Cavaliers and beat them, 109–98.

BOS +1.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Jayson TatumBOS · F
TOUCHES8998
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

CLE

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

117.4

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.1

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR