NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9TOR

TOR

33-23

110101

CHI

24-32

NBAThu, Feb 19FinalSeriesTOR leads series 2-0VegasTOR -6.5

TOR · top performer

Brandon Ingram

F · #3

23.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Tre Jones

G · #30

13.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 2:12

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	36	31	11-26	3-5	6-7	+12	8	6
R. BarrettF · #9	25	13	3-10	1-3	6-8	+14	6	3
S. BarnesF · #4	34	14	5-14	0-1	4-4	+8	9	5
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	29	11	4-5	—	3-3	+9	6	1
I. QuickleyG · #5	33	14	5-12	0-4	4-5	+9	2	3
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	16	7	3-5	1-2	—	-8	3	0
J. PoeltlC · #19	16	2	1-1	—	—	+2	0	1
J. SheadG · #23	20	4	2-5	0-2	—	-3	3	4
J. WalterG · #14	22	14	4-9	2-5	4-4	-4	4	0
G. DickG · #1	9	0	0-3	0-1	—	+6	5	0
Team		110	38-90	7-23	27-31		46	23
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Battle, J. Mogbo, G. Temple

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SmithF · #25	24	9	2-6	1-3	4-4	-8	10	2
I. OkoroF · #35	30	16	6-12	3-5	1-1	0	5	1
M. BuzelisF · #14	31	4	2-10	0-7	—	-9	6	1
A. SimonsG · #22	31	20	7-18	4-11	2-2	-21	1	1
J. GiddeyG · #3	21	5	1-7	0-2	3-4	-22	4	5
Bench
G. YabuseleF · #28	17	8	2-5	1-3	3-4	-7	5	1
P. WilliamsF · #44	27	6	3-8	0-4	—	+2	7	1
N. RichardsC · #13	12	6	2-2	—	2-2	+2	5	0
C. SextonG · #2	15	11	4-7	2-4	1-2	+6	1	2
T. JonesG · #30	22	12	5-8	1-1	1-2	+8	1	6
R. DillinghamG · #7	10	4	2-3	—	—	+4	1	2
Team		101	36-86	12-40	17-21		46	22
DNP: L. Miller, J. Ivey, Olbrich

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

38-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-86

FG %

7-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-40

27-31

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 2-0

Feb 6

CHI107@

TOR123

Feb 20

TOR110@

CHI101today

Mar 19

TOR139@

CHI109

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-22569%

CHI+18535%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -6.5↗SpreadBet TOR -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat CHI 110-101. B. Ingram paced them with 31 PTS, 8 REB, 6 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 31 REB · 18 AST

GS 67

Bench(5)

27 PTS · 15 REB · 5 AST

GS 22

CHIstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 26 REB · 10 AST

GS 31

Bench(6)

47 PTS · 20 REB · 12 AST

GS 39

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI4th Quarter · 2:12 · 103-101

+13pp→ 27% WP

Anfernee Simons · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Smith assists)

TOR4th Quarter · 1:38 · 103-101

+10pp→ 74% WP

Jalen Smith · steps out of bounds turnover

TOR4th Quarter · 1:18 · 105-101

+10pp→ 92% WP

Anfernee Simons · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	25	28	34	23	110
CHI	23	22	33	23	101

Period scoring

TOR won 3 · CHI won 0

Ingram 9

Richards 9

Barnes 8

Simons 6

Ingram 12

Jones 8

Murray-Boyles 5

Yabusele 6

TOR

CHI

Shooting comparison

TOR

CHI

42%

38-90

42%

36-86

30%

7-23

3PT

30%

12-40

87%

27-31

81%

17-21

Play-by-play · 513 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 110·CHI 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 110·CHI 101
Q4·18.7
Josh Giddey lost ball turnover (Collin Murray-Boyles steals)
·
TOR 110·CHI 101
Q4·24.2
RJ Barrett makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 110·CHI 101
Q4·24.2
RJ Barrett makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 109·CHI 101
Q4·24.2
Josh Giddey personal foul
TOR 108·CHI 101
−0.5pp
Q4·26.2
Brandon Ingram defensive rebound
TOR 108·CHI 101
−0.5pp
Q4·29.1
Collin Murray-Boyles blocks Anfernee Simons 's 24-foot three point jumper
·
TOR 108·CHI 101
−2pp
Q4·35.5
Matas Buzelis enters the game for Patrick Williams
·
TOR 108·CHI 101
Q4·35.5
Bulls Full timeout
TOR 108·CHI 101
Q4·36.1
Brandon Ingram makes 17-foot step back jumpshot
TOR 108·CHI 101
−4pp
Q4·53.0
Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
TOR 106·CHI 101
−1pp
Q4·53.8
Jalen Smith misses tip shot
TOR 106·CHI 101
−4pp
Q4·53.8
Jalen Smith offensive rebound
TOR 106·CHI 101
+3pp
Q4·57.0
Anfernee Simons misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 106·CHI 101
−5pp
Q4·1:18
Collin Murray-Boyles makes free throw 1 of 1
TOR 106·CHI 101
+4pp
Q4·1:18
Anfernee Simons shooting foulBIG MOMENT
TOR 105·CHI 101
−10pp
Q4·1:18
Collin Murray-Boyles makes layup (Brandon Ingram assists)BIG MOMENT
·
TOR 105·CHI 101
−7pp
Q4·1:38
RJ Barrett enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
TOR 103·CHI 101
Q4·1:38
Josh Giddey enters the game for Matas Buzelis
·
TOR 103·CHI 101
Q4·1:38
Jalen Smith steps out of bounds turnoverBIG MOMENT
TOR 103·CHI 101
−10pp
Q4·1:42
Anfernee Simons defensive rebound
TOR 103·CHI 101
+2pp
Q4·1:46
Jamal Shead misses 22-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
TOR 103·CHI 101
+6pp
Q4·2:12
Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Smith assists)BIG MOMENT
·
TOR 103·CHI 101
+13pp
Q4·2:14
Jalen Smith offensive rebound
TOR 103·CHI 98
+4pp
Q4·2:17
Matas Buzelis misses 26-foot three point jumper
TOR 103·CHI 98
−4pp
Q4·2:29
Bulls defensive team rebound
TOR 103·CHI 98
+1pp
Q4·2:29
Tre Jones blocks Jamal Shead 's 1-foot driving layup
·
TOR 103·CHI 98
+3pp
Q4·2:51
Tre Jones makes running layup (Anfernee Simons assists)
·
TOR 103·CHI 98
+3pp
Q4·2:56
Scottie Barnes bad pass turnover (Jalen Smith steals)
·
TOR 103·CHI 96
+2pp

Betting line

TOR -6.5·O/U 234.5·TOR -225/CHI +185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors went into Chicago Bulls and beat them, 110–101.

TOR -6.5 cashed (won by 9). Total stayed UNDER 234.5 by 23.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Josh GiddeyCHI · G
TOUCHES94.199
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

CHI

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

54.7%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.9%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

116.3

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

28.5

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR