Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty
LV
NY
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
as Vegas Aces visit New York Liberty Tuesday at 6/30 - 7:00 PM EDT. LV is rolling — 7-1 in their last 8. NY is rolling — 6-1 in their last 7.
Vegas opened NY as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 171.5. NY's moneyline implies a 60% break-even, LV the inverse.
For bettors: the NY side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 171.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
NY
Home
48
FG %
46
Season series
Series starts 6/23
NY@LVupcomingNY@LVupcomingLV@NYupcomingModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NY -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
171.5
High-scoring · +6.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LV+12445%NY-14860%13· 44h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 2 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
171.5
0.0 since open
Scouting report
LV @ NY
Model edge vs market
Strong edgeMarket
NY -2.5
Model
NY -5.8
Edge
+3.3 pts
Market
171.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
NY -148
Model
NY
Edge
aligned
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
11-4
Record
11-5
#2
Conf rank
#2
+3.4
Pt diff
+6.0
W1
Streak
L1
7-3
Last 10
8-2
78.2
Power score
84.0
#3
Power rank
#2
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
NY -2.5·O/U 171.5·LV +124/NY -148
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.0%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV26.3± 6.1medium
- Breanna StewartNY18.7± 8.0medium
- Jackie YoungLV16.3± 10.2medium
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV10.0± 4.7medium
- Jonquel JonesNY9.5± 4.0medium
- Breanna StewartNY8.6± 2.3medium
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV7.2± 2.5medium
- Jackie YoungLV6.9± 3.1medium
- Pauline AstierNY4.0± 1.8medium
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.2± 2.1medium
- Jonquel JonesNY1.5± 1.4medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.3± 2.4medium
Steals
- A'ja WilsonLV1.6± 1.6medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.5± 1.5medium
- Chelsea GrayLV1.3± 1.0medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
NY
48.3%
FG%
44.6
46.2%
35.6%
3PT %
33.4
35.1%
89.9
PPG
85.7
88.9
23.5
Assists / G
18.0
21.1
12.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.6