NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13SA

38-16

126113

29-26

NBAWed, Feb 11FinalSeriesGS leads series 2-1VegasSA -7.5

SA · top performer

De'Aaron Fox

G · #4

25.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

De'Anthony Melton

G · #8

17.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 10:05

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	20	0	0-3	0-3	—	-6	3	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	33	26	8-17	2-9	8-10	+7	9	4
D. FoxG · #4	32	27	11-16	3-5	2-2	+6	0	8
D. VassellG · #24	28	8	2-8	1-5	3-3	-1	4	2
S. CastleG · #5	21	10	4-12	0-1	2-3	-17	5	4
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	22	8	3-7	0-4	2-2	+29	4	3
K. JohnsonF · #3	29	21	8-13	2-6	3-3	+22	6	2
C. BryantF · #11	9	8	2-5	1-3	3-4	0	5	1
L. KornetC · #7	15	4	2-2	—	—	+8	3	2
D. HarperG · #2	29	14	6-10	1-3	1-1	+17	5	8
Team		126	46-93	10-39	24-28		44	35
DNP: K. Olynyk, B. Biyombo, J. McLaughlin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	30	17	6-14	2-8	3-4	-5	12	8
G. SantosF · #15	30	9	4-11	0-3	1-2	-1	5	6
D. MeltonG · #8	25	17	6-7	5-6	—	+12	3	7
M. MoodyG · #4	35	17	6-12	3-8	2-2	-3	4	2
P. SpencerG · #61	31	9	4-11	0-2	1-2	-14	4	4
Bench
A. HorfordC · #20	26	6	3-7	0-4	—	-16	4	1
Q. PostC · #21	13	12	4-6	3-5	1-2	+1	3	2
G. Payton IIG · #0	14	10	4-11	2-7	—	-12	0	5
B. PodziemskiG · #2	36	16	5-12	1-4	5-5	-27	5	2
Team		113	42-91	16-47	13-17		40	37
DNP: K. Porzingis, W. Richard

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

46-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-91

FG %

10-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-47

24-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS leads series 2-1

Nov 13

GS125@

SA120

Nov 15

GS109@

SA108

Feb 12

SA126@

GS113today

Apr 2

SA127@

GS113

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-23870%

GS+19534%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -7.5↗SpreadBet SA -7.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat GS 126-113. D. Fox paced them with 27 PTS, 0 REB, 8 AST. SA outscored the other side 32-19 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 21 REB · 19 AST

GS 56

Bench(5)

55 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 58

GSstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 28 REB · 27 AST

GS 59

Bench(4)

44 PTS · 12 REB · 10 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS3rd Quarter · 3:59 · 81-89

+8pp→ 77% WP

Quinten Post · makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Anthony Melton assists)

SA4th Quarter · 10:39 · 96-94

+8pp→ 74% WP

Gui Santos · shooting foul

SA4th Quarter · 10:05 · 99-94

+11pp→ 83% WP

Victor Wembanyama · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	31	32	31	32	126
GS	38	29	27	19	113

Period scoring

SA won 3 · GS won 1

Fox 12

Moody 7

Bryant 8

Moody 5

Fox 9

Melton 8

Johnson 9

Green 5

Shooting comparison

49%

46-93

46%

42-91

26%

10-39

3PT

34%

16-47

86%

24-28

76%

13-17

Play-by-play · 498 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 126·GS 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 126·GS 113
Q4·20.2
shot clock turnover
SA 126·GS 113
Q4·42.7
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
SA 126·GS 113
Q4·46.9
Gui Santos misses 27-foot three point jumper
SA 126·GS 113
Q4·55.0
De'Aaron Fox makes 2-foot running dunk
SA 126·GS 113
Q4·58.3
Draymond Green lost ball turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)
·
SA 124·GS 113
Q4·1:04
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 124·GS 113
Q4·1:04
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 123·GS 113
Q4·1:04
Moses Moody shooting foul
SA 122·GS 113
−0.6pp
Q4·1:21
Draymond Green bad pass turnover (Keldon Johnson steals)
·
SA 122·GS 113
−1pp
Q4·1:27
Keldon Johnson makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)
·
SA 122·GS 113
−2pp
Q4·1:46
Brandin Podziemski makes 2-foot layup (Draymond Green assists)
·
SA 120·GS 113
+1pp
Q4·1:56
Victor Wembanyama bad pass turnover (Gui Santos steals)
·
SA 120·GS 111
+1pp
Q4·2:00
Harrison Barnes enters the game for Devin Vassell
·
SA 120·GS 111
Q4·2:00
Spurs offensive team rebound
SA 120·GS 111
−0.8pp
Q4·2:02
De'Aaron Fox misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 120·GS 111
Q4·2:27
Draymond Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)
·
SA 120·GS 111
+1pp
Q4·2:46
De'Aaron Fox makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)
·
SA 120·GS 108
−0.7pp
Q4·3:01
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
SA 118·GS 108
Q4·3:04
Draymond Green misses free throw 1 of 1
SA 118·GS 108
−2pp
Q4·3:04
Spurs Full timeout
SA 118·GS 108
Q4·3:04
Dylan Harper shooting foul
SA 118·GS 108
+2pp
Q4·3:04
Draymond Green makes driving layup (Gui Santos assists)
·
SA 118·GS 108
Q4·3:14
Keldon Johnson makes 4-foot two point shot (Dylan Harper assists)
·
SA 118·GS 106
−0.7pp
Q4·3:30
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
SA 116·GS 106
Q4·3:33
Brandin Podziemski misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 116·GS 106
−4pp
Q4·3:49
De'Aaron Fox enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
SA 116·GS 106
Q4·3:49
Al Horford enters the game for De'Anthony Melton
·
SA 116·GS 106
Q4·3:49
Keldon Johnson personal foul
SA 116·GS 106
+3pp

Betting line

SA -7.5·O/U 220.5·SA -238/GS +195

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Golden State Warriors and beat them, 126–113.

SA -7.5 cashed (won by 13). Total cleared the 220.5 OVER by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593
De'Anthony MeltonGS · G
DEFL2.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

GS vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
20.4± 6.0high
Brandin PodziemskiGS
17.3± 5.8high

Rebounds

Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high
Kristaps PorzingisGS
5.6± 2.4high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Charles BasseyGS
0.9± 1.1medium
Kristaps PorzingisGS
0.7± 0.7high

Steals

De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

55.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.2%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.5

27.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.8

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR