NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CLE

CLE

33-21

119117

DEN

34-20

NBAMon, Feb 9FinalSeriesCLE wins series 2-0VegasDEN -2.5

CLE · top performer

Donovan Mitchell

G · #45

28.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

24.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 76pp · 4th Quarter · 43.4

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. AllenC · #31	35	22	10-16	—	2-4	+8	13	1
J. HardenG · #1	36	22	7-16	2-7	6-6	+9	10	7
D. MitchellG · #45	34	32	11-23	3-10	7-8	+3	1	10
S. MerrillG · #5	25	9	3-6	3-6	—	+13	2	1
J. TysonG · #20	31	16	6-13	4-9	—	+11	3	1
Bench
N. TomlinF · #35	13	6	2-3	2-2	—	-10	1	0
T. BryantC · #3	13	5	1-3	1-3	2-2	-6	3	1
D. SchroderG · #8	25	5	2-7	0-4	1-2	-14	2	3
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	9	0	—	—	—	-6	1	0
K. EllisG · #14	20	2	1-5	0-4	—	+2	3	1
Team		119	43-92	15-45	18-22		39	25
DNP: L. Nance Jr., T. Enaruna, T. Proctor

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. JohnsonF · #23	29	10	4-5	2-3	—	-7	4	1
N. JokicC · #15	33	22	6-11	0-2	10-12	-2	14	11
J. MurrayG · #27	36	17	6-16	1-6	4-4	-4	8	11
C. BraunG · #0	32	20	7-13	4-8	2-2	+3	5	2
J. StrawtherG · #3	29	20	8-16	2-6	2-3	+3	6	0
Bench
J. ValanciunasC · #17	15	12	2-4	0-1	8-10	0	4	0
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	29	12	4-10	3-9	1-2	+6	1	0
B. BrownG · #11	25	1	0-6	0-2	1-2	-10	4	0
J. PickettG · #24	12	3	1-4	1-3	—	+1	0	0
Team		117	38-85	13-40	28-35		46	25
DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Holmes II, P. Watson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

43-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-85

FG %

15-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-40

18-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

28-35

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CLE wins series 2-0

Jan 3

DEN108@

CLE113

Feb 10

CLE119@

DEN117today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

242.5

High-scoring · +16.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE+11447%

DEN-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -2.5↗SpreadBet DEN -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

242.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat DEN 119-117. D. Mitchell paced them with 32 PTS, 1 REB, 10 AST. Nikola Jokic's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (76pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

101 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST

GS 83

Bench(5)

18 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST

GS 9

DENstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 37 REB · 25 AST

GS 78

Bench(4)

28 PTS · 9 REB · 0 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN4th Quarter · 1:47 · 112-114

+27pp→ 82% WP

Nikola Jokic · makes free throw 1 of 2

CLE4th Quarter · 0.9 · 117-117

+42pp→ 95% WP

Jamal Murray · personal foul

DEN4th Quarter · 43.4 · 114-117

+76pp→ 76% WP

Nikola Jokic · lost ball turnover (Sam Merrill steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	26	28	33	32	119
DEN	30	29	33	25	117

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · DEN won 2

Mitchell 13

Strawther 11

Harden 7

Johnson 10

Mitchell 10

Murray 11

Allen 8

Jokic 9

CLE

DEN

Shooting comparison

CLE

DEN

47%

43-92

45%

38-85

33%

15-45

3PT

33%

13-40

82%

18-22

80%

28-35

Play-by-play · 498 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 119·DEN 117
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 119·DEN 117
Q4·0.1
Nuggets offensive team rebound
CLE 119·DEN 117
Q4·0.4
Nikola Jokic misses 22-foot turnaround jump shot
CLE 119·DEN 117
−2pp
Q4·0.9
Nuggets Full timeout
CLE 119·DEN 117
Q4·0.9
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 119·DEN 117
+0.9pp
Q4·0.9
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 118·DEN 117
−3pp
Q4·0.9
Jamal Murray personal foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 117·DEN 117
−42pp
Q4·6.2
Jarrett Allen defensive rebound
CLE 117·DEN 117
−0.8pp
Q4·9.2
Tim Hardaway Jr. misses 27-foot three point jumper
CLE 117·DEN 117
−3pp
Q4·31.4
(00:31.4) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
CLE 117·DEN 117
−4pp
Q4·32.1
James Harden makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
CLE 117·DEN 117
−5pp
Q4·38.1
Cameron Johnson loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 114·DEN 117
−19pp
Q4·38.1
Cavaliers offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CLE 114·DEN 117
−6pp
Q4·38.1
Donovan Mitchell misses running layup
CLE 114·DEN 117
Q4·43.4
Nikola Jokic lost ball turnover (Sam Merrill steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 114·DEN 117
+76pp
Q4·1:01
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
CLE 114·DEN 117
+2pp
Q4·1:06
Jaylon Tyson misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CLE 114·DEN 117
+7pp
Q4·1:27
Nikola Jokic makes 5-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 114·DEN 117
+10pp
Q4·1:40
Jarrett Allen makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Donovan Mitchell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 114·DEN 115
−9pp
Q4·1:47
Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 112·DEN 115
−6pp
Q4·1:47
Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 112·DEN 114
+27pp
Q4·1:47
Cameron Johnson enters the game for Bruce Brown
·
CLE 112·DEN 113
Q4·1:47
(01:47) [Cavaliers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Cavaliers] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·DEN 113
−25pp
Q4·1:47
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 112·DEN 113
Q4·1:47
Jarrett Allen shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·DEN 113
+13pp
Q4·1:56
Bruce Brown offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·DEN 113
+8pp
Q4·1:58
Jamal Murray misses 20-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·DEN 113
−8pp
Q4·2:14
Jarrett Allen makes 2-foot layup (Donovan Mitchell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 112·DEN 113
−8pp
Q4·2:37
Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 8-foot floating jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 110·DEN 113
+8pp

Betting line

DEN -2.5·O/U 242.5·CLE +114/DEN -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers went into Denver Nuggets and beat them, 119–117. Decided by 2.

CLE +2.5 cashed (DEN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 242.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
James HardenCLE · G
DRIVES12.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DEN vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high
Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

DEN

55.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

117.4

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

27.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.7

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR