NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+22MIN

ATL

26-29

116138

MIN

33-22

NBAMon, Feb 9FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -8.5

ATL · top performer

CJ McCollum

G · #3

26.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Anthony Edwards

G · #5

23.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 1:21

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	33	14	4-9	2-4	4-7	-27	5	3
A. NewellF · #14	25	2	1-5	0-2	—	-16	4	1
Z. RisacherF · #10	21	3	1-9	0-6	1-1	-19	4	1
C. McCollumG · #3	33	38	12-25	5-9	9-11	-25	1	2
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	35	23	9-19	4-9	1-1	-18	12	5
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	31	12	4-12	1-7	3-3	-11	7	4
M. GueyeF · #18	20	10	4-8	1-2	1-1	+1	7	0
J. LandaleC · #31	18	12	4-5	1-1	3-4	-2	6	0
B. HieldG · #8	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	0	0
G. VincentG · #4	19	2	1-6	0-4	—	+11	1	4
Team		116	40-99	14-45	22-28		47	20
DNP: K. Wallace, D. Daniels

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	39	18	8-14	2-5	—	+25	12	10
J. McDanielsF · #3	34	18	7-11	2-3	2-4	+25	5	3
R. GobertC · #27	33	18	7-7	—	4-9	+12	6	1
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	26	10	4-10	2-8	—	+9	4	6
A. EdwardsG · #5	38	30	11-21	4-11	4-5	+22	6	6
Bench
N. ReidC · #11	21	7	3-8	0-5	1-2	+6	6	2
A. DosunmuG · #13	30	21	9-13	2-4	1-1	+7	1	3
J. ClarkG · #22	5	3	1-1	1-1	—	+6	0	0
B. HylandG · #8	15	13	5-7	3-5	—	-2	1	5
Team		138	55-92	16-42	12-21		41	36
DNP: J. Ingles, E. Freeman, J. Phillips, J. Beringer

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

40-99

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

55-92

FG %

14-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-42

22-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 31

MIN102@

ATL126

Feb 10

ATL116@

MIN138today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+26028%

MIN-32576%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -8.5↗SpreadBet MIN -8.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat ATL 138-116. A. Edwards paced them with 30 PTS, 6 REB, 6 AST. MIN outscored the other side 40-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 26 REB · 12 AST

GS 49

Bench(5)

36 PTS · 21 REB · 8 AST

GS 34

MINstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 33 REB · 26 AST

GS 88

Bench(4)

44 PTS · 8 REB · 10 AST

GS 39

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	34	22	31	29	116
MIN	41	40	25	32	138

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · MIN won 3

McCollum 18

Edwards 13

Kispert 6

Edwards 8

Alexander-Walker 12

McCollum 8

McCollum 12

Dosunmu 10

ATL

MIN

Shooting comparison

ATL

MIN

40%

40-99

60%

55-92

31%

14-45

3PT

38%

16-42

79%

22-28

57%

12-21

Play-by-play · 504 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 116·MIN 138
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 116·MIN 138
Q4·0.0
Hawks offensive team rebound
ATL 116·MIN 138
Q4·0.0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 116·MIN 138
Q4·20.8
Julius Randle lost ball turnover (Nickeil Alexander-Walker steals)
·
ATL 116·MIN 138
Q4·23.8
Julius Randle offensive rebound
ATL 116·MIN 138
Q4·27.4
Jaden McDaniels misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
ATL 116·MIN 138
Q4·49.9
Julius Randle defensive rebound
ATL 116·MIN 138
Q4·51.0
Onyeka Okongwu misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 116·MIN 138
Q4·51.0
Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 116·MIN 138
Q4·51.0
Jaden McDaniels personal foul
·
ATL 115·MIN 138
Q4·1:05
Corey Kispert defensive rebound
ATL 115·MIN 138
Q4·1:07
Julius Randle misses layup
ATL 115·MIN 138
Q4·1:33
Gabe Vincent enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
ATL 115·MIN 138
Q4·1:33
Nickeil Alexander-Walker out of bounds lost ball turnover
ATL 115·MIN 138
Q4·1:41
Jaden McDaniels makes 26-foot running jump shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)
· ·
ATL 115·MIN 138
Q4·1:43
Julius Randle defensive rebound
ATL 115·MIN 135
Q4·1:46
Jaden McDaniels blocks CJ McCollum 's 2-foot two point shot
· ·
ATL 115·MIN 135
Q4·1:56
Anthony Edwards makes 3-foot two point shot
ATL 115·MIN 135
Q4·2:02
Julius Randle defensive rebound
ATL 115·MIN 133
Q4·2:06
CJ McCollum misses running pullup jump shot
ATL 115·MIN 133
Q4·2:10
Anthony Edwards lost ball turnover (CJ McCollum steals)
·
ATL 115·MIN 133
Q4·2:28
CJ McCollum makes free throw 3 of 3
ATL 115·MIN 133
Q4·2:28
Donte DiVincenzo enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
ATL 114·MIN 133
Q4·2:28
CJ McCollum makes free throw 2 of 3
ATL 114·MIN 133
Q4·2:28
Hawks offensive team rebound
ATL 113·MIN 133
Q4·2:28
CJ McCollum misses free throw 1 of 3
ATL 113·MIN 133
Q4·2:28
Anthony Edwards shooting foul
ATL 113·MIN 133
Q4·2:41
Anthony Edwards makes 11-foot two point shot
ATL 113·MIN 133
Q4·2:58
CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three pointer
ATL 113·MIN 131

Betting line

MIN -8.5·O/U 239.5·ATL +260/MIN -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves held off Atlanta Hawks, 138–116. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN -8.5 cashed (won by 22). Total cleared the 239.5 OVER by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
CJ McCollumATL · G
DRIVES10.288
Ayo DosunmuMIN · G
TS%63.086

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

MIN

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

47.2%

FG%

47.0

47.6%

117.2

PPG

114.9

116.8

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

13.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR