UTAH
17-37
MIA
28-27
UTAH · top performer
Kyle Filipowski
F · #22
16
Pts
11
Reb
2
Ast
MIA · top performer
Andrew Wiggins
F · #22
26
Pts
5
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 46.8
NBA · Utah Jazz at Miami Heat · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 25 | 17 | 5-14 | 3-8 | 4-4 | -6 | 8 | 1 | |
| 25 | 22 | 7-19 | 2-7 | 6-7 | +15 | 5 | 3 | |
| 25 | 10 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 1-4 | -3 | 16 | 1 | |
| 34 | 13 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | |
| 37 | 16 | 7-14 | 0-3 | 2-2 | +3 | 8 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 23 | 16 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 8-8 | +7 | 11 | 2 | |
| 19 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 22 | 14 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 4-4 | -2 | 4 | 2 | |
| 16 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | +1 | 0 | 2 | |
| 15 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 | — | +7 | 2 | 7 | |
| Team | 115 | 39-92 | 10-36 | 27-31 | 58 | 29 | ||
| DNP: O. Tshiebwe, S. Mykhailiuk, E. Harkless | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 36 | 26 | 9-18 | 4-11 | 4-8 | -5 | 5 | 2 | |
| 19 | 9 | 1-9 | 1-6 | 6-6 | +8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 37 | 23 | 8-18 | 1-5 | 6-10 | 0 | 11 | 5 | |
| 14 | 8 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 1-2 | +10 | 6 | 0 | |
| 31 | 12 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 5-6 | -6 | 2 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -10 | 0 | 1 | |
| 31 | 9 | 1-7 | 1-3 | 6-8 | -12 | 4 | 5 | |
| 17 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-2 | +5 | 4 | 0 | |
| 17 | 4 | 1-1 | — | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| 32 | 20 | 7-12 | 6-10 | — | -10 | 3 | 1 | |
| Team | 111 | 33-79 | 15-45 | 30-44 | 43 | 24 | ||
| DNP: N. Powell, J. Young, P. Larsson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
42
29
Ast
24
Team stats
UTAH
Away
Stat
MIA
Home
39-92
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
33-79
42
FG %
42
10-36
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-45
27-31
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
30-44
29
Assists
24
12
Turnovers
14
Season series
Series tied 1-1
MIA147@UTAH116UTAH115@MIA111todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIA -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
234.5
High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg
Moneyline
UTAH+20533%MIA-25071%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
234.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
UTAH beat MIA 115-111. K. Filipowski led with 16 PTS, 11 REB, 2 AST. UTAH outscored the other side 35-20 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIA vs UTAH
Starters vs bench
production by unitUTAHstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 40 REB · 16 AST
GS 61
Bench(5)
37 PTS · 18 REB · 13 AST
GS 35
MIAstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 29 REB · 14 AST
GS 53
Bench(5)
33 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST
GS 29
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKel'el Ware · shooting foul
Brice Sensabaugh · makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ace Bailey assists)
Kasparas Jakucionis · misses 22-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 26 | 35 | 24 | 30 | 115 |
| MIA | 32 | 20 | 30 | 29 | 111 |
Period scoring
UTAH won 2 · MIA won 2
Q1
Jr. 8
Fontecchio 9
Q2
Jr. 9
Jakucionis 8
Q3
Jr. 5
Adebayo 11
Q4
Filipowski 8
Wiggins 11
Shooting comparison
42%
39-92
FG
42%
33-79
28%
10-36
3PT
33%
15-45
87%
27-31
FT
68%
30-44
Play-by-play · 520 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 115·MIA 111
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 115·MIA 111
- Q4·0.1
Jazz defensive team rebound
UTAH 115·MIA 111
−0.8pp
- Q4·1.8
Davion Mitchell misses heave jump shot
UTAH 115·MIA 111
−2pp
- Q4·3.0
Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 115·MIA 111
+2pp
- Q4·3.0
Kasparas Jakucionis enters the game for Dru Smith
·
UTAH 114·MIA 111
- Q4·3.0
Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 114·MIA 111
- Q4·3.0
Davion Mitchell personal take foul
UTAH 113·MIA 111
−4pp
- Q4·3.7
Dru Smith enters the game for Kasparas Jakucionis
·
UTAH 113·MIA 111
- Q4·3.7
Jazz Full timeout
UTAH 113·MIA 111
+4pp
- Q4·3.7
Jaime Jaquez Jr. personal take foul
UTAH 113·MIA 111
−4pp
- Q4·3.7
Brice Sensabaugh defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 113·MIA 111
−9pp
- Q4·7.2
Kasparas Jakucionis misses 22-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
UTAH 113·MIA 111
−12pp
- Q4·8.6
Heat Full timeout
UTAH 113·MIA 111
- Q4·8.6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
UTAH 113·MIA 111
−2pp
- Q4·11.3
Isaiah Collier misses 15-foot fade away jump shot
UTAH 113·MIA 111
+3pp
- Q4·32.5
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
UTAH 113·MIA 111
−4pp
- Q4·35.9
Andrew Wiggins misses 11-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 113·MIA 111
−11pp
- Q4·41.1
Heat Full timeout
UTAH 113·MIA 111
−0.5pp
- Q4·46.8
Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ace Bailey assists)BIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 113·MIA 111
−19pp
- Q4·1:05
Isaiah Collier defensive rebound
UTAH 110·MIA 111
−3pp
- Q4·1:08
Bam Adebayo misses 14-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 110·MIA 111
−8pp
- Q4·1:23
Isaiah Collier makes 12-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 110·MIA 111
−7pp
- Q4·1:39
Ace Bailey vs. Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Brice Sensabaugh gains possession)
· ·
UTAH 108·MIA 111
- Q4·1:43
Ace Bailey defensive rebound
UTAH 108·MIA 111
- Q4·1:46
Bam Adebayo misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
UTAH 108·MIA 111
−10pp
- Q4·1:46
Cody Williams shooting foulBIG MOMENT
UTAH 108·MIA 111
+10pp
- Q4·1:46
Bam Adebayo makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 108·MIA 111
+8pp
- Q4·1:46
Bam Adebayo offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 108·MIA 109
+8pp
- Q4·1:48
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 10-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 108·MIA 109
−7pp
Betting line
MIA -5.5·O/U 234.5·UTAH +205/MIA -250
Recap · NBA
tah Jazz went into Miami Heat and beat them, 115–111. Decided by 4.
UTAH +5.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 234.5 by 8.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · FCONT9.197
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · FDRIVES13.295- Andrew WigginsMIA · FCONT7.693
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH · FUSG%27.492
Isaiah CollierUTAH · GDRIVES11.592
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · UTAH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIA vs UTAH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 125 high confidence
Points
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA25.0± 4.5high
- Lauri MarkkanenUTAH24.2± 5.0high
- Keyonte GeorgeUTAH21.4± 8.8high
Rebounds
- Jusuf NurkicUTAH11.4± 4.1high
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA9.9± 4.4high
Assists
- Isaiah CollierUTAH6.6± 2.5high
- Kennedy ChandlerUTAH6.5± 2.2medium
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
Blocks
- Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH1.3± 1.3high
- Ace BaileyUTAH1.0± 1.0high
- John KoncharUTAH1.0± 1.0high
Steals
- Bez MbengUTAH2.5± 1.7medium
- John KoncharUTAH1.9± 1.7high
- Elijah HarklessUTAH1.5± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
UTAH
league avg
MIA
53.6%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶54.2%
46.7%
FG%
47.0
46.8%
117.6
PPG
114.9
▶120.9
29.6
Assists / G
25.0
29.0
15.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.0