NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6DET

DET

39-13

110104

CHA

25-29

NBAMon, Feb 9FinalSeriesDET leads series 2-0VegasDET -2.5

DET · top performer

Cade Cunningham

G · #2

23.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Kon Knueppel

G · #7

18.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDET ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 3:27

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	35	11	4-11	1-4	2-2	+15	5	1
D. RobinsonF · #55	24	18	8-10	1-3	1-2	+27	3	4
J. DurenC · #0	20	15	5-7	—	5-5	+14	5	2
C. CunninghamG · #2	37	33	12-27	2-6	7-7	+14	9	7
A. ThompsonG · #9	25	6	3-8	—	—	+3	8	2
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	18	12	3-5	1-1	5-8	-6	3	1
I. StewartF · #28	11	2	1-2	0-1	—	-12	0	0
J. GreenG · #31	15	4	1-5	0-4	2-2	-6	0	0
C. LeVertG · #8	23	5	2-4	0-2	1-2	-19	2	1
K. HuerterG · #27	13	0	0-2	0-2	—	-4	3	1
D. JenkinsG · #24	19	4	2-6	0-2	—	+4	3	1
Team		110	41-87	5-25	23-28		41	20
DNP: M. Sasser

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	20	6	1-6	0-3	4-4	-21	4	1
M. DiabateF · #14	19	0	0-1	—	—	-13	6	0
B. MillerF · #24	36	24	8-18	4-10	4-4	-5	3	3
L. BallG · #1	29	20	8-22	4-12	—	-12	4	4
K. KnueppelG · #7	34	20	6-13	5-11	3-3	-9	5	3
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	25	12	3-6	2-3	4-4	+9	2	5
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	17	6	3-4	—	—	+2	4	0
J. GreenG · #10	23	5	1-3	1-2	2-2	+12	5	1
T. MannG · #23	14	5	2-6	1-3	—	+10	4	2
S. JamesG · #4	23	6	2-3	2-3	—	-3	2	3
Team		104	34-82	19-47	17-17		39	22
DNP: X. Tillman, P. Connaughton

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

41-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-82

FG %

5-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-47

23-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET leads series 2-0

Dec 21

CHA86@

DET112

Feb 10

DET110@

CHA104today

Apr 10

DET118@

CHA100

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-13557%

CHA+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -2.5↗SpreadBet DET -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat CHA 110-104. C. Cunningham paced them with 33 PTS, 9 REB, 7 AST. DET outscored the other side 32-24 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 30 REB · 16 AST

GS 69

Bench(6)

27 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST

GS 23

CHAstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 22 REB · 11 AST

GS 42

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 17 REB · 11 AST

GS 28

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA2nd Quarter · 11:42 · 29-36

+7pp→ 58% WP

Grant Williams · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)

DET2nd Quarter · 1.4 · 61-57

+7pp→ 72% WP

LaMelo Ball · misses 36-foot three point jumper

CHA3rd Quarter · 10:55 · 61-62

+7pp→ 43% WP

Brandon Miller · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	29	32	27	22	110
CHA	33	24	21	26	104

Period scoring

DET won 2 · CHA won 2

Robinson 6

Knueppel 9

Cunningham 15

Ball 8

Reed 8

Kalkbrenner 4

Cunningham 9

Miller 9

DET

CHA

Shooting comparison

DET

CHA

47%

41-87

41%

34-82

20%

5-25

3PT

40%

19-47

82%

23-28

100%

17-17

Play-by-play · 500 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 110·CHA 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 110·CHA 104
Q4·0.0
Hornets offensive team rebound
DET 110·CHA 104
Q4·0.0
LaMelo Ball misses 26-foot three point jumper
DET 110·CHA 104
−2pp
Q4·10.8
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 110·CHA 104
+0.8pp
Q4·10.8
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
DET 109·CHA 104
Q4·10.8
Paul Reed enters the game for Kevin Huerter
·
DET 109·CHA 104
Q4·10.8
Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson
· ·
DET 109·CHA 104
Q4·10.8
LaMelo Ball enters the game for Josh Green
· ·
DET 109·CHA 104
Q4·10.8
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 109·CHA 104
Q4·10.8
Sion James personal foul
DET 108·CHA 104
−4pp
Q4·17.4
Daniss Jenkins enters the game for Paul Reed
·
DET 108·CHA 104
Q4·17.4
Kevin Huerter enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
DET 108·CHA 104
Q4·17.4
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Caris LeVert
·
DET 108·CHA 104
Q4·17.4
Josh Green enters the game for LaMelo Ball
· ·
DET 108·CHA 104
Q4·17.4
Pistons Full timeout
DET 108·CHA 104
Q4·17.4
LaMelo Ball makes driving layup (Grant Williams assists)
·
DET 108·CHA 104
+2pp
Q4·22.9
Tobias Harris out of bounds bad pass turnover
DET 108·CHA 102
+2pp
Q4·24.3
Grant Williams makes 1-foot dunk (Kon Knueppel assists)
·
DET 108·CHA 102
Q4·31.3
Tobias Harris makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 108·CHA 100
+0.7pp
Q4·31.3
Tobias Harris makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 107·CHA 100
Q4·31.3
Grant Williams personal foul
DET 106·CHA 100
−2pp
Q4·31.3
Tobias Harris defensive rebound
DET 106·CHA 100
−0.6pp
Q4·31.9
LaMelo Ball misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
DET 106·CHA 100
−3pp
Q4·39.8
Paul Reed enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
DET 106·CHA 100
Q4·39.8
Hornets Full timeout
DET 106·CHA 100
Q4·39.8
Tobias Harris makes 8-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
DET 106·CHA 100
−5pp
Q4·55.7
Cade Cunningham defensive rebound
DET 104·CHA 100
−2pp
Q4·58.0
Kon Knueppel misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DET 104·CHA 100
−5pp
Q4·1:02
Kon Knueppel offensive rebound
DET 104·CHA 100
+5pp

Betting line

DET -2.5·O/U 222.5·DET -135/CHA +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons went into Charlotte Hornets and beat them, 110–104.

DET -2.5 cashed (won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 222.5 by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

CHA

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

115.9

PPG

114.9

115.8

27.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.2

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR